The effect of Brexit on the UK Economy (so far)

The political turmoil in the UK following the referendum on future membership of the European Union in 2016 provides a natural experiment for studying the effects of political uncertainty (in the Knightian sense) on the economy. We find that the subsequent confusion and infighting in British politics has not affected the real economy much – employment is at a historical high and output growth is positive – but there are some signs of slowing investment and house price increases. The stock market has also not been much affected although it did fall after the referendum of 2016. The main effect of the Brexit vote and the subsequent political developments is found in the currency market where news that make a hard Brexit more likely cause the currency to depreciate. We conclude that leaving the European Union without an agreement is likely to make the currency depreciate and the stock market fall while output declines. In contrast, leaving with an agreement that gives continued access to the Single Market would likely make the currency appreciate, the stock market rise and employment and output increase further

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior

Coupling between resting cerebral perfusion and EEG

While several studies have investigated interactions between the electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging BOLD signal fluctuations, less is known about the associations between EEG oscillations and baseline brain haemodynamics, and few studies have examined the link between EEG power outside the alpha band and baseline perfusion. Here we compare whole-brain arterial spin labelling perfusion MRI and EEG in a group of healthy adults (n = 16, ten females, median age: 27 years, range 21-48) during an eyes closed rest condition. Correlations emerged between perfusion and global average EEG power in low (delta: 2-4 Hz and theta: 4-7 Hz), middle (alpha: 8-13 Hz), and high (beta: 13-30 Hz and gamma: 30-45 Hz) frequency bands in both cortical and sub-cortical regions. The correlations were predominately positive in middle and high-frequency bands, and negative in delta. In addition, central alpha frequency positively correlated with perfusion in a network of brain regions associated with the modulation of attention and preparedness for external input, and central theta frequency correlated negatively with a widespread network of cortical regions. These results indicate that the coupling between average EEG power/frequency and local cerebral blood flow varies in a frequency specific manner. Our results are consistent with longstanding concepts that decreasing EEG frequencies which in general map onto decreasing levels of activation