Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Development and evaluation of a quality score for abstracts

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of abstracts for scientific meetings has been shown to suffer from poor inter observer reliability. A measure was developed to assess the formal quality of abstract submissions in a standardized way. METHODS: Item selection was based on scoring systems for full reports, taking into account published guidelines for structured abstracts. Interrater agreement was examined using a random sample of submissions to the American Gastroenterological Association, stratified for research type (n = 100, 1992–1995). For construct validity, the association of formal quality with acceptance for presentation was examined. A questionnaire to expert reviewers evaluated sensibility items, such as ease of use and comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The index comprised 19 items. The summary quality scores showed good interrater agreement (intra class coefficient 0.60 – 0.81). Good abstract quality was associated with abstract acceptance for presentation at the meeting. The instrument was found to be acceptable by expert reviewers. CONCLUSION: A quality index was developed for the evaluation of scientific meeting abstracts which was shown to be reliable, valid and useful

Tai Chi on psychological well-being: systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity and exercise appear to improve psychological health. However, the quantitative effects of Tai Chi on psychological well-being have rarely been examined. We systematically reviewed the effects of Tai Chi on stress, anxiety, depression and mood disturbance in eastern and western populations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eight English and 3 Chinese databases were searched through March 2009. Randomized controlled trials, non-randomized controlled studies and observational studies reporting at least 1 psychological health outcome were examined. Data were extracted and verified by 2 reviewers. The randomized trials in each subcategory of health outcomes were meta-analyzed using a random-effects model. The quality of each study was assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty studies totaling 3817 subjects were identified. Approximately 29 psychological measurements were assessed. Twenty-one of 33 randomized and nonrandomized trials reported that 1 hour to 1 year of regular Tai Chi significantly increased psychological well-being including reduction of stress (effect size [ES], 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23 to 1.09), anxiety (ES, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.03), and depression (ES, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.80), and enhanced mood (ES, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.69) in community-dwelling healthy participants and in patients with chronic conditions. Seven observational studies with relatively large sample sizes reinforced the beneficial association between Tai Chi practice and psychological health.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Tai Chi appears to be associated with improvements in psychological well-being including reduced stress, anxiety, depression and mood disturbance, and increased self-esteem. Definitive conclusions were limited due to variation in designs, comparisons, heterogeneous outcomes and inadequate controls. High-quality, well-controlled, longer randomized trials are needed to better inform clinical decisions.</p

Translating evidence into policy for cardiovascular disease control in India

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading causes of premature mortality in India. Evidence from developed countries shows that mortality from these can be substantially prevented using population-wide and individual-based strategies. Policy initiatives for control of CVD in India have been suggested but evidence of efficacy has emerged only recently. These initiatives can have immediate impact in reducing morbidity and mortality. Of the prevention strategies, primordial involve improvement in socioeconomic status and literacy, adequate healthcare financing and public health insurance, effective national CVD control programme, smoking control policies, legislative control of saturated fats, trans fats, salt and alcohol, and development of facilities for increasing physical activity through better urban planning and school-based and worksite interventions. Primary prevention entails change in medical educational curriculum and improved healthcare delivery for control of CVD risk factors-smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes. Secondary prevention involves creation of facilities and human resources for optimum acute CVD care and secondary prevention. There is need to integrate various policy makers, develop effective policies and modify healthcare systems for effective delivery of CVD preventive care

The modified absolute-value factorization norm for trust-region minimization

A trust-region method for unconstrained minimization, using a trust-region norm based upon a modified absolute-value factorization of the model Hessian, is proposed. It is shown that the resulting trust-region subproblem may be solved using a single factorization. In the convex case, the method reduces to a backtracking Newton linesearch procedure. The resulting software package is available as HSL VF06 within the Harwell Subroutine Library. Numerical evidence shows that the approach is effective in the nonconvex case. 1 Department for Computation and Information, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QX, England, EU Email : [email protected] 2 Current reports available by anonymous ftp from joyous-gard.cc.rl.ac.uk (internet 130.246.9.91) in the directory &quot;pub/reports&quot;. 3 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208-3118, USA Email : [email protected]. This author was supported by National Science Foundation..