Explainable Machine Learning for Public Policy: Use Cases, Gaps, and Research Directions

Explainability is a crucial requirement for effectiveness as well as the adoption of Machine Learning (ML) models supporting decisions in high-stakes public policy areas such as health, criminal justice, education, and employment, While the field of explainable has expanded in recent years, much of this work has not taken real-world needs into account. A majority of proposed methods use benchmark datasets with generic explainability goals without clear use-cases or intended end-users. As a result, the applicability and effectiveness of this large body of theoretical and methodological work on real-world applications is unclear. This paper focuses on filling this void for the domain of public policy. We develop a taxonomy of explainability use-cases within public policy problems; for each use-case, we define the end-users of explanations and the specific goals explainability has to fulfill; third, we map existing work to these use-cases, identify gaps, and propose research directions to fill those gaps in order to have a practical societal impact through ML.Comment: Submitted for review at Communications of the AC

Change through data: A data analytics training program for government employees

From education to health to criminal justice, government regulation and policy decisions have important effects on social and individual experiences. New data science tools applied to data created by government agencies have the potential to enhance these meaningful decisions. However, certain institutional barriers limit the realization of this potential. First, we need to provide systematic training of government employees in data analytics. Second we need a careful rethinking of the rules and technical systems that protect data in order to expand access to linked individual-level data across agencies and jurisdictions, while maintaining privacy. Here, we describe a program that has been run for the last three years by the University of Maryland, New York University, and the University of Chicago, with partners such as Ohio State University, Indiana University/Purdue University, Indianapolis, and the University of Missouri. The program—which trains government employees on how to perform applied data analysis with confidential individual-level data generated through administrative processes, and extensive project-focused work—provides both online and onsite training components. Training takes place in a secure environment. The aim is to help agencies tackle important policy problems by using modern computational and data analysis methods and tools. We have found that this program accelerates the technical and analytical development of public sector employees. As such, it demonstrates the potential value of working with individual-level data across agency and jurisdictional lines. We plan to build on this initial success by creating a larger community of academic institutions, government agencies, and foundations that can work together to increase the capacity of governments to make more efficient and effective decisions

Explainable machine learning for public policy: Use cases, gaps, and research directions

Explainability is highly desired in machine learning (ML) systems supporting high-stakes policy decisions in areas such as health, criminal justice, education, and employment. While the field of explainable ML has expanded in recent years, much of this work has not taken real-world needs into account. A majority of proposed methods are designed with generic explainability goals without well-defined use cases or intended end users and evaluated on simplified tasks, benchmark problems/datasets, or with proxy users (e.g., Amazon Mechanical Turk). We argue that these simplified evaluation settings do not capture the nuances and complexities of real-world applications. As a result, the applicability and effectiveness of this large body of theoretical and methodological work in real-world applications are unclear. In this work, we take steps toward addressing this gap for the domain of public policy. First, we identify the primary use cases of explainable ML within public policy problems. For each use case, we define the end users of explanations and the specific goals the explanations have to fulfill. Finally, we map existing work in explainable ML to these use cases, identify gaps in established capabilities, and propose research directions to fill those gaps to have a practical societal impact through ML. The contribution is (a) a methodology for explainable ML researchers to identify use cases and develop methods targeted at them and (b) using that methodology for the domain of public policy and giving an example for the researchers on developing explainable ML methods that result in real-world impact

Beyond Implicit Bias

In their introduction to this edition of Dædalus, Goodwin Liu and Camara Phyllis Jones write that “it is unlikely that implicit bias can be effectively addressed by cognitive interventions alone, without broader institutional, legal, and structural reforms.” They note that the genesis for the volume was a March 2021 workshop on the science of implicit bias convened by the Committee on Science, Technology, and Law of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. That workshop provided an opportunity to demonstrate that implicit bias is a common form of cognitive processing that develops in response to social, cultural, and institutional conditions. As demonstrated by the workshop and the essays in this volume, an understanding of implicit bias in a neurological, mechanistic, and phenomenological manner strengthens our ability to develop policies to diffuse and mitigate the problems that arise from implicit bias. At the end of the 2021 event, members of the interdisciplinary workshop planning committee gave their perspectives on the important messages that they would take away from the workshop. For the conclusion of this volume of Dædalus, we members of the planning committee were asked to expand on what we said three years ago. This is our response

A Recommendation and Risk Classification System for Connecting Rough Sleepers to Essential Outreach Services

Rough sleeping is a chronic problem faced by some of the most disadvantaged people in modern society. This paper describes work carried out in partnership with Homeless Link, a UK-based charity, in developing a data-driven approach to assess the quality of incoming alerts from members of the public aimed at connecting people sleeping rough on the streets with outreach service providers. Alerts are prioritised based on the predicted likelihood of successfully connecting with the rough sleeper, helping to address capacity limitations and to quickly, effectively, and equitably process all of the alerts that they receive. Initial evaluation concludes that our approach increases the rate at which rough sleepers are found following a referral by at least 15\% based on labelled data, implying a greater overall increase when the alerts with unknown outcomes are considered, and suggesting the benefit in a trial taking place over a longer period to assess the models in practice. The discussion and modelling process is done with careful considerations of ethics, transparency and explainability due to the sensitive nature of the data in this context and the vulnerability of the people that are affected.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 5 table