Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH[subscript 4]-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH[subscript 4]-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH[subscript 4] leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1–2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m[superscript −2] stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2–3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH[subscript 4] emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.New England University Transportation Center (DOT Grant DTRT07-G-0001

Downward pumping of magnetic flux as the cause of filamentary structures in sunspot penumbrae

The structure of a sunspot is determined by the local interaction between magnetic fields and convection near the Sun's surface. The dark central umbra is surrounded by a filamentary penumbra, whose complicated fine structure has only recently been revealed by high-resolution observations. The penumbral magnetic field has an intricate and unexpected interlocking-comb structure and some field lines, with associated outflows of gas, dive back down below the solar surface at the outer edge of the spot. These field lines might be expected to float quickly back to the surface because of magnetic buoyancy, but they remain submerged. Here we show that the field lines are kept submerged outside the spot by turbulent, compressible convection, which is dominated by strong, coherent, descending plumes. Moreover, this downward pumping of magnetic flux explains the origin of the interlocking-comb structure of the penumbral magnetic field, and the behaviour of other magnetic features near the sunspot

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately

Parenchymal involvement on CT pulmonary angiography in SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant infection and correlation of COVID-19 CT severity score with clinical disease severity and short-term prognosis in a UK cohort

AIM: To determine if there is a difference in radiological, biochemical, or clinical severity between patients infected with Alpha-variant SARS-CoV-2 compared with those infected with pre-existing strains, and to determine if the computed tomography (CT) severity score (CTSS) for COVID-19 pneumonitis correlates with clinical severity and can prognosticate outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Blinded CTSS scoring was applied to 137 hospital patients who had undergone both CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 within 14 days of CTPA between 1/12/20–5/1/21. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a difference in imaging severity on CTPA, viral load, clinical parameters of severity, or outcomes between Alpha and preceding variants. CTSS on CTPA strongly correlates with clinical and biochemical severity at the time of CTPA, and with patient outcomes. Classifying CTSS into a binary value of “high” and “low”, with a cut-off score of 14, patients with a high score have a significantly increased risk of deterioration, as defined by subsequent admission to critical care or death (multivariate hazard ratio [HR] 2.76, p<0.001), and hospital length of stay (17.4 versus 7.9 days, p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of a difference in radiological severity of Alpha variant infection compared with pre-existing strains. High CTSS applied to CTPA is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 severity and poorer clinical outcomes and may be of use particularly in settings where CT is not performed for diagnosis of COVID-19 but rather is used following clinical deterioration

Validation and Use of 22Na Turnover to Measure Food Intake in Free-Ranging Lizards

As the food intake of free-ranging animals has proved to be difficult to measure by traditional means, the feasibility of using radioactive Na to measure food consumption in a small scincid lizard (Lampropholis guichenoti) was assessed. This technique has previously been used only for several species of mammal. A significant relationship between food intake and Na turnover was found in the laboratory, with Na turnover underestimating intake by 7.6%. The food intake of free-ranging members of a field population was estimated by 22Na turnover to be 9.55, 0.65, 9.39 and 13.75 mg dry weight (day)-1 during autumn, winter, spring and summer respectively. Estimates of assimilated and expended energy from these food intake values agree closely with data reported for other lizards using alternative techniques. This study also describes the technical innovations which were necessary to study lizards weighing less than 1 g; and it suggests that 22Na can provide an easy, reliable and inexpensive means of studying the energetics of many free-living animals

Educating Cancer Prevention Researchers in Emerging Biobehavioral Models: Lessons Learned

To increase the adoption of transdisciplinary research methods among future cancer prevention investigators, faculty members from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center developed a graduate-level course in biobehavioral methods in cancer prevention research. Two instructors paired by topic and area of expertise offered an hour-long lecture-based seminar every week for 15 weeks during the spring semester of 2010. Students and presenters both evaluated the overall course content and delivery method, as well as each session. A total of 11 students and 22 presenters participated in the course. In each class session, one presenter was from a behavioral science background,and the other was from a biological sciences background. Both presenters and students expressed overall satisfaction with the content and format of the course. The presentation of topics from a transdisciplinary perspective and interaction with presenters from both biological and behavioral sciences are valuable and can help junior researchers prepare to meet the emerging challenges in cancer prevention research

The rate of beneficial mutations surfing on the wave of a range expansion

Many theoretical and experimental studies suggest that range expansions can have severe consequences for the gene pool of the expanding population. Due to strongly enhanced genetic drift at the advancing frontier, neutral and weakly deleterious mutations can reach large frequencies in the newly colonized regions, as if they were surfing the front of the range expansion. These findings raise the question of how frequently beneficial mutations successfully surf at shifting range margins, thereby promoting adaptation towards a range-expansion phenotype. Here, we use individual-based simulations to study the surfing statistics of recurrent beneficial mutations on wave-like range expansions in linear habitats. We show that the rate of surfing depends on two strongly antagonistic factors, the probability of surfing given the spatial location of a novel mutation and the rate of occurrence of mutations at that location. The surfing probability strongly increases towards the tip of the wave. Novel mutations are unlikely to surf unless they enjoy a spatial head start compared to the bulk of the population. The needed head start is shown to be proportional to the inverse fitness of the mutant type, and only weakly dependent on the carrying capacity. The second factor is the mutation occurrence which strongly decreases towards the tip of the wave. Thus, most successful mutations arise at an intermediate position in the front of the wave. We present an analytic theory for the tradeoff between these factors that allows to predict how frequently substitutions by beneficial mutations occur at invasion fronts. We find that small amounts of genetic drift increase the fixation rate of beneficial mutations at the advancing front, and thus could be important for adaptation during species invasions.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures; to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Mothers Matter Too: Benefits of Temperature Oviposition Preferences in Newts

The maternal manipulation hypothesis states that ectothermic females modify thermal conditions during embryonic development to benefit their offspring (anticipatory maternal effect). However, the recent theory suggests that the ultimate currency of an adaptive maternal effect is female fitness that can be maximized also by decreasing mean fitness of individual offspring. We evaluated benefits of temperature oviposition preferences in Alpine newts (Ichthyosaura [formerly Triturus] alpestris) by comparing the thermal sensitivity of maternal and offspring traits across a range of preferred oviposition temperatures (12, 17, and 22°C) and by manipulating the egg-predation risk during oviposition in a laboratory thermal gradient (12–22°C). All traits showed varying responses to oviposition temperatures. Embryonic developmental rates increased with oviposition temperature, whereas hatchling size and swimming capacity showed the opposite pattern. Maternal oviposition and egg-predation rates were highest at the intermediate temperature. In the thermal gradient, females oviposited at the same temperature despite the presence of caged egg-predators, water beetles (Agabus bipustulatus). We conclude that female newts prefer a particular temperature for egg-deposition to maximize their oviposition performance rather than offspring fitness. The evolution of advanced reproductive modes, such as prolonged egg-retention and viviparity, may require, among others, the transition from selfish temperature preferences for ovipositon to the anticipatory maternal effect

Inhibition of SLPI ameliorates disease activity in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor (SLPI) exerts wide ranging effects on inflammatory pathways and is upregulated in EAE but the biological role of SLPI in EAE, an animal model of multiple sclerosis is unknown</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To investigate the pathophysiological effects of SLPI within EAE, we induced SLPI-neutralizing antibodies in mice and rats to determine the clinical severity of the disease. In addition we studied the effects of SLPI on the anti-inflammatory cytokine TGF-β.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The induction of SLPI neutralizing antibodies resulted in a milder disease course in mouse and rat EAE. SLPI neutralization was associated with increased serum levels of TGF-β and increased numbers of FoxP3+ CD4+ T cells in lymph nodes. <it>In vitro</it>, the addition of SLPI significantly decreased the number of functional FoxP3+ CD25^hiCD4+ regulatory T cells in cultures of naive human CD4+ T cells. Adding recombinant TGF-β to SLPI-treated human T cell cultures neutralized SLPI's inhibitory effect on regulatory T cell differentiation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In EAE, SLPI exerts potent pro-inflammatory actions by modulation of T-cell activity and its neutralization may be beneficial for the disease.</p