THE IRISH ITINERANTS: SOME DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND EDUCATIONAL ASPECTS. BROADSHEET No. 18, May 1979

SOME selected characteristics of Irish itinerants are discussed in this paper. An account is given of some of the problems faced by itinerants based on factual material obtained from Irish official publications, books and articles on Irish itinerants, discussions with people who work with itinerants and the findings of unpublished censuses of itinerants taken by Local Authorities. The study does not involve social or psychological analysis but tries by the presentation of facts assembled together to "help, if in a small way, those who are trying to improve the lot of itinerants". The problem of itinerancy is seen by the authors as part of the problem of poverty. Itinerants are or were, on the whole, the dispossessed--poor, homeless, illiterate, despised." Some, particularly the roadside traders (whom many would not regard as itinerants), are reasonably well off but the great majority according to Patricia McCarthy (1975) were regarded as "marginal people in every sense . . . living a primitive and harsh existence." They are conscious of their poverty, avoid integration with the settled community, and have a low self esteem because of their dependence on charity and social welfare

Forecasting Power of Particular Models for Ireland and U.S.A. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 51 1968(?)

Professor R. H. Scott or the University of Washington, Seattle, (on sabbatical leave in University College, Galway, 1965-66), is the pioneer in the establishment of behaviouristic relations between financiai and non-financial data in Ireland. The period studied is the eight years of growth 1958-1965. Four macro-variables were taken into account M = Money supply (= currency + total deposits) Y = Gross national product at current market prices R = Rate of interest G = Net exports of goods and services plus net expenditures by public authorities

Prices in Ireland: Notes for an Inquiry. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 33 1966

The object of these notes is to set up a series of preliminary hypotheses with a view to an investigation of the following problems:- (a) why are prices rising? (b) under modern conditions, is a continual rise in prices a necessary condition for growth? These are, of course, general questions applying to every country. It is, however, proposed to examine them by reference to the very considerable amount of price data available for Ireland in the post-war period

Education and Agriculture: A Note Based on Irish Census of Population Statistics. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 128 1978

The statistic used in Table 1 is the number of males who finished their education at the primary level as a percentage of number of males gainfully occupied on farms of different sizes. Hence the higher the percentage the lower the level of education. The national average level for males was 66.3 percent; the second last row of the table shows that, except for sons etc assisting, percentages in agriculture were substantially in excess of this latter figure. Column 2 shows that it is only at the 100 - 200 acre class that male farmers approach the national average. The farmer and relative percentages improve with farm size but appreciably only at the large farm sizes. Percentages for agricultural labourers decline only slightly with farm size; of course, employees are numerous only on large farms. It can scarcely be said that the larger farmers have better educated workers, though there seems to be a slight effect. Educationally the male farming class make a poor showing, by the simple test used. About the most cheerful prospect in the lower percentage for sons compared with farmers; but the improvement will take a generation for full effect. That the table shows such regularity is statistically satisfactory. One can draw inferences from it without much qualification. In these comparisons, however, present (i.e. 1966) age is of the essence, as numbers with post-primary experience are increasing all the time we expect sons' percentages to be lower than fathers'. To make valid comparisons, corrections must be made for differences in present age

Relation Between Lack of Education, Unemployment and Age Amongst Males. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 129 1978

There are too many in unskilled occupations in Ireland. The object of the present chapter is to show that this is so, to try to discover the reasons for it and to make suggestions for its mitigation. This formulation will naturally lead unto some study of education and training. In the three unskilled occupations of Table 1 there were 127,500 persons of whom 30,900 were out of work on Census date 18 April 1971, i.e. nearly a quarter. The 1971 Census was the last taken but suits our purpose well enough as representing the situation for a more or less normal modern date, i.e. well before the recent recession

The Irish Government Bond Yield. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 135 1979

As will appear, the quite remarkable showing of the time trend for the ratio: Government bond yield (GBY): consumer price index (CPI) impelled the writer towards a series of experiments reported in this memorandum on methods of analysis of nearly stationary time series. These include spectral analysis which he approaches with some skepticism as to practical utility, however, much he admires its mathematical elegance. A start is made with a short series of annual averages the idea being that if methods seem successful with these they can be extended to the more realistic shorter term (quarterly, monthly) series. The experimental annual series used was derived from International Financial Statistics. Yields were those of a single stock, in later years on 6% Exchequer Loan 1985-90, no doubt deemed representative, though the stock quoted for was changed at intervals of years. Chart 1 shows how the yields varied with CPI. Clearly the graphs were similar up to and including 1973; in fact the percentage rise in both in the period 1953-1972 were almost identical. Indeed the most remarkable feature of the chart is the break in the period 1974-1977. It may be added that the low yield continues into 1978. Despite our enormous and rapidly increasing national debt Irish Government credit is good

The Future of Jobs in Ireland. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 120 1977

After a long lifetime study of the endemic problem unemployment and underemployment in Ireland in their statistical aspects I have come firmly to a very simple conclusion which is that the problem must be tackled directly. While economic development, i.e. the production of marketable goods and services, must remain the principal strategy, it will not suffice for absorbing all job seekers: the capital cost would be too great. Recourse must be had to job creation, mainly in the Construction industry with the deliberate purpose of reducing the number seeking work. Of course, there is nothing new in this. The only novelty would be change of emphasis. Nor must we strain for perfection: a substantial and permanent reduction in the number of genuine work seekers will suffice. We have had quite enough of idealism in this country. So the tone of the paper will not be admonitory of once. The philosophy will be that of old in the public service: "the best is the enemy of the good." We have done well enough in the recent past to justify optimism for the future: "All that we want is courage, resolution and the involvement of everyone," to quote the last sentence in the latest work on unemployment with which I have been associated. The work proper opens as follows

A Note on Obsolescence. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 47 1966(?)

Armchair economists (those who evolve their hypo­theses as to the behaviour of businessmen from their inner consciousness, instead of going to the market place and finding out) are wont to be impatient at the slowness of change for the better in economic behaviour, in particular at the length of time which elapses in the general adoption of improved technology, the reluctance of in­dustrialists to change old machines and old ways. The present note is also an armchair exercise, but at least it is informed by the philosophy that there are usually good reasons why things are as they are; that we have no right rationally to advocate change "for the better" until we are aware of these reasons

A Simple Macro-Economic Growth Model Part III The Model in Figures. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 5 1960(?)

Three appended tables give the values of the macro-economic variables, Table A on the assumption of a 3% rise, Table B a 5% rise and Table C a 7% rise in net national product, (NNP) for three time intervals (t) 5, 1C, 15 years, three net incremental fixed capital output ratios (k) of 3, 4 and 5 and three saving ratios (s) of 5, 10 and 15 per cent. These parameters are defined in Part I. The rate of interest (n) on the import excess is assumed fixed at 79. The number of sets of values of the macros Y, C, S, V, M (= M’ + M"), X and N is accordingly 81 (= 3x3x3x3). This part of the exercise is designed to obtain the first approximation to a rate of increase (r) which might be adopted for a National Plan having regard to the realities of the Irish situation. Since many of the figures in the tables are going to appear incredible it is necessary to point out at the start that, with one exception, namely the part M" of imports, they are the results of simple arithmetic applied to the accounting identities I(2). The only element in the exercise which involves economic theory is the assumption that the import ratio m grows pari passu with rate of growth of the economy - percent for percent - for the reasons given in Part I. This assumption of course, exacerbates the import excess situation, regarded as the principal criterion of feasibility of any plan. As already remarked in Part I, the one-one relation of import ratio and NNP rates of growth is a conservative one: freer trading conditions would be conducive to increasing, the ratio to the further detriment of the import excess

Remarks by R.C. Geary at the Assembly of the Youth Council of Ireland, at Kilkea Castle Hotel. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 131 1978

I am very pleased with the documentation Mr Corry was good enough to send me, the policy and the programme statements, both of which are practical, realistic and possess the sublime merit of brevity. I was in at the beginning of setting up the unemployment statistics of this State but I demur only mildly at the animadversions in these documents about their quality: everything can be improved. We in CSO, were early pioneers in devoting a special volume practically to unemployment at the Census of Population and I should think that those interested have only to inquire at CSO to obtain current statistics of registered unemployed and not-yet-at-work classified by age