Exchange rate volatility and trade: a general equilibrium analysis.

In this paper, we use insights from the literature on financial options to analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade between countries. In contrast to existing work, this analysis is carried out in a model where the exchange rate is determined endogenously, and the volatility of the exchange rate depends on the volatility of the amounts available for consumption of the traded and non-traded goods. Our main result is to show that, in a one-good world, and contrary to the popular conjecture, an increase in exchange rate volatility is associated with an increase in the volume of trade. If a non-traded good is added, the above remains true when the source of exchange rate volatiliy is the uncertainty in the traded goods sector. However, when the source of exchange rate volatility is the non-traded goods sector then the volume of trade may decline. Thus, our model offers at least a partial explanation for the results of empirical studies that find only a weak relation between exchange rate volatility and trade. A policy implication of the model is that the volatility of the real exchange rate can be reduced, and welfare increased, in two ways: by reducing the volatility of fundamentals and by reducing the barriers to trade. However, while a reduction in trade barriers is associated with an increase in trade, a reduction in the volatility of fundamentals leads to a reduction in trade. Thus, more trade does not always mean a higher welfare.Equilibrium; Trade; Volatility;

Limiting punishment for default on sovereign debt and the London Club.

In this paper, we examine the role that institutions may play in enabling banks to write contracts whereby sovereign debt is not forgiven ex post. Our model provides a rationale for the emergence of a centralized forum for debt renegotiation, such as the London Club as well as for bank syndicates. These bank syndicates arise as part of a pre-commitment device rather than risk sharing. We propose a debt contract under which, only involuntary default is forgiven ex post. Our main findings are that under this contract, renegotiations take place only after involuntary default and debt forgiveness after voluntary (strategic) default is avoided. When voluntary default occurs, access to the credit market is denied only for a limited number of periods, rather than forever. In contrast to a voluntary default, involuntary default is renegotiated immediately.Default; Sovereign debt;

The exchange rate and purchasing power parity: extending the theory and tests.

This paper analyzes the exchange rate in a ``no-arbitrage' or ``real business cycle' equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis-a-vis PPP. Our contribution is to show, based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates, that (i) the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences or risk attitudes, as well as noise---that is, the model should not be tested as an exact relation; (ii) empirical work should use levels of variables rather than first differences; (iii) tests on the existence of long-run relations should be complemented by tests on the signs of the coefficients; (iv) the specification of the regression should offer demonstrated advantages over alternatives, and the significance tests should not rely on asymptotic distributions; and (v) the tests should steer clear of countries that have imposed, for most of the period, capital restrictions or exchange controls, thus violating the integrated-markets assumption of the model. Our empirical work shows that, as a long-run relation, the generalized model outperforms PPP.Purchasing; Purchasing power; Theory; Equilibrium; Model; International; Risk; Variables; Advantages; Distribution;

The equilibrium approach to exchange rates: theory and tests.

We characterize the equilibrium exchange rate in a general equilibrium economy without imposing strong restrictions on the output processes, preferences, or commodity market imperfections. The nomial exchange rate is determined by differences in initial wealths - the currencies of richer countries tend to be overvalued, by PPP standards - and by differences of marginal indirect utilities of total nominal spending. Changes in the exchange rate mirror differences in growth rates of real spending weighted by relative risk-aversion (which can be time-varying and can differ across countries), and, in the case of non-homothetic utility functions, differences in inflation rates computed from marginal spending weights. Thus, standard regression or cointegration tests of PPP suffer from missing-variables biases and ignore variations in risk aversions across countries and over time. We also present cointegration test of the homothecy/ CRRA version of the model. When nominal spending is given an independent role (next to prices) in the short-term dynamics, both PPP and the CRRA model become acceptable.Equilibrium; Theory; Trade;

Comparative Study of Performance of Indian Commercial Banks in the Era of Global Melt-Down

The gap regarding the costs and profits is widening among the various bank groups. The present paper is an endeavor to study the comparative costs and profits to study the comparative costs and profits among partially and fully IT-oriented bank groups. The paper concludes that even the costs are high in partially IT-oriented bank groups but their profits are also lesser as compare to fully IT-oriented bank groups and there is significant correlation between operating costs and net profits but insignificant correlation between per employee expenditure and net profits. At the end, paper suggests some areas of comprehensive research

Banking Sector Reforms: Policy Implications and Fresh Outlook

Various reform measures introduced in India have indeed strengthened the Indian banking system in preparation for the fresh global challenges ahead. The present paper reviews the banking sector reforms policy, crucial issues and agenda for the future. On the basis of certain parameters, like productivity, profitability and NPAs’ management, the paper concludes that foreign banks and new private sector banks are much better in performance as compared to our nationalized banks in the post-banking sector reforms period. The paper ends with the future agenda for the Indian banking industry, particularly for public sector banks to make them efficient and strong, to compete with the global banks

Global Crisis: Problems and Prospects for Indian Banking Industry

The present paper analyses the efficiency of all the bank groups in the post- banking sector reforms era. Time period of the study is related to second post-banking sector reforms (1999-2000 to 2005-06). This period has been chosen taking into consideration the following factors; On the basis of some parameters of efficiency i.e. profitability per employee, per branch, business per employee, per branch and expenses per employee and per branch, the paper concludes that efficiency of all the bank groups has increased in the second post-banking reforms period but these banking sector reforms are more beneficial for new private sector banks and foreign banks. At the end, paper suggests some measures for the improvement of efficiency of Indian nationalized banks

E-Banking: Problems and Prospects an Empirical Study in Punjab

The present study is concerned with the problems and prospects of e-banks in India. The present paper suggests some policies on the basis of perceptions of 60 selected e-bank employees regarding the various issues related to e-banking services. The paper concluded that not more then 50% of Indian bank customers are using e-channels, these channels are not much popular among old age and middle age persons as much as among youngsters and finally the paper concludes that the most of the customers are shifting from public sector banks to new private sector banks or foreign banks to avail innovative and attractive services. On the basis of these conclusions, paper suggests some strategies to make the public sector banks more competitive in the era of IT

Customer Service in Banks: Mapping Excellence in Emerging New Competitive Era

The Indian Banking Industry has undergone radical changes due to liberalization and globalization measures undertaken since 1991. Today, Indian Banking Industry is one of the largest in world. There has been a great surge in efficient customer services. A highly satisfied and delighted customer is a very vital nonfinancial asset for the banks in the emerging IT era. The curtsey, accuracy & speed are like a crown factors for a bank. Based on the responses of 768 customers of public sector bank, Indian Private Sector Bank & Foreign Bank (each one from these groups) operating in Amritsar district of Punjab and in case of fully E-bank, (three banks, one from each bank group) have been taken into consideration. It may be inferred that there is significant difference among three bank groups with regard to the time customers have to spend to transact a business. The E-banks are more efficient in regard to time factor. This is the very important factor of shifting of potential customers in E-banks. The survey was conducted in Amritsar district of Punjab in the month of September 2007. Chi-Square test is used to check the level of significance difference among various bank groups and coefficient of contingency among various bank group customers’ responses is also calculated

E-Age Technology–New Face of Indian Banking Industry: Emerging Challenges and New Potentials

The present paper analyzes the performance of major banks in terms of productivity and profitability in the pre and post e-banking period. Under the regime of banking sector reforms, IT Act of 1999 gave new dimensions to the Indian banking sector. IT has created transformation in banking structure, business process, work culture and human resource development. It has affected the productivity, profitability and efficiency of the banks to a large extent. The paper concludes that performance of all the banks under study is much better in post-e-banking period and further foreign banks are at the top position, whereas the performance of the public sector banks is comparatively very poor. The paper suggests some measures to tackle the challenges faced by the banks particularly public sector banks. At the end, paper suggests how public sector banks can convert the emerging challenges into opportunities