Coping with Uncertainty in River Management:Challenges and Ways Forward

Coping with uncertainties is inherent to river management planning and policymaking. Yet, policymakers often perceive uncertainty as a complicating factor. We examine the challenges faced by policymakers when coping with uncertainties and provide an action perspective on how to best cope with these challenges to inform the policy debate. Integrating social and natural scientist’s perspectives on uncertainties and learning theories, we present a holistic, management perspective for coping with uncertainty. Based on a literature review about uncertainty concepts, strategies and learning, we identify three challenges in current river management: balancing social and technical uncertainties, being conservative and avoiding to end up a lock-in situation. We then provide a step-wise strategy and concrete actions for policymakers, which are illustrated with several examples. We conclude that coping with uncertainty may require paradigm shifts that can only be achieved through organisational learning. This, we claim, requires reflection, learning and flexibility of policymakers and their organisation

Explaining artificial side channel dynamics using data analysis and model calculations

Side channel construction is a common intervention to increase both flood safety and the ecological value of the river. Three side channels of Gameren in the river Waal (The Netherlands) show amounts of large aggradation. We use bed level measurements and grain size samples to characterize the development of the side channels. We relate the bed level changes and the deposited sediment in the side channels to the results of hydrodynamic computations. Two of the three side channels filled mainly with suspended bed-material load. In one of these channels, the bed level increased enough that vegetation has grown and fine suspended load has settled. In the third side channel, the bed shear stresses are much smaller and, in addition to the suspended bed-material load, fine sediment settles. Based on the side channel system at Gameren, we identify two types of side channels: one type fills predominantly with suspended bed-material load from the main channel and a second type fills predominantly with fine suspended load. This gives an indication of the main mechanisms that lead to the aggradation in artificial side channel systems.<br/

Analyzing natural bed‐level dynamics to mitigate the morphological impact of river interventions

Local river interventions, such as channel narrowing or side channels, are often nec-essary to maintain safety, ecology, or navigation. Such interventions have differenteffects on the river's bed morphology during periods of high- and low-dischargeevents. Mapping the bed-level variations for different discharge levels and under-standing these effects can provide new opportunities for the design of interventionsin multifunctional rivers. At any moment, the local bed level in a river is composed ofbed-level changes that occur at various spatial and temporal scales. These changesconsist of bed aggradation/degradation trends on a large scale, on an intermediatescale bed-level variations as a result of discharge fluctuations, and on small-scalemoving river bed forms like dunes. Using the river Waal in the Netherlands as a casestudy, we analyze the intermediate-term bed-level changes resulting from dischargefluctuations (dynamic component) and propose adaptations to the design of flood-plain interventions such that possible negative impact on the local bed-level changesis minimized. Time series of bed levels along two 10 km stretches of the case studyare considered for a period of 16 years (2005–2020). Using a wavelet transform, weisolate bed-level variations resulting from discharge events. These bed-level varia-tions are presented based on the magnitude of the discharge event and are compiledin an interactive atlas of river morphodynamics, allowing us to mitigate the impact ofinterventions. This will help river managers in the design of interventions and lead toimproved management, operation, and maintenance of multifunctional rivers

The Complex Ginzburg-Landau Equation in the Presence of Walls and Corners

We investigate the influence of walls and corners (with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions) in the evolution of twodimensional autooscillating fields described by the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Analytical solutions are found, and arguments provided, to show that Dirichlet walls introduce strong selection mechanisms for the wave pattern. Corners between walls provide additional synchronization mechanisms and associated selection criteria. The numerical results fit well with the theoretical predictions in the parameter range studied.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures; for related work visit http://www.nbi.dk/~martine

Towards Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS)-Based Newborn Screening:A Technical Study to Prepare for the Challenges Ahead

Newborn screening (NBS) aims to identify neonates with severe conditions for whom immediate treatment is required. Currently, a biochemistry-first approach is used to identify these disorders, which are predominantly inherited metalbolic disorders (IMD). Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is expected to have some advantages over the current approach, for example the ability to detect IMDs that meet all screening criteria but lack an identifiable biochemical footprint. We have now designed a technical study to explore the use of NGS techniques as a first-tier approach in NBS. Here, we describe the aim and set-up of the NGS-first for the NBS (NGSf4NBS) project, which will proceed in three steps. In Step 1, we will identify IMDs eligible for NGS-first testing, based on treatability. In Step 2, we will investigate the feasibility, limitations and comparability of different technical NGS approaches and analysis workflows for NBS, eventually aiming to develop a rapid NGS-based workflow. Finally, in Step 3, we will prepare for the incorporation of this workflow into the existing Dutch NBS program and propose a protocol for referral of a child after a positive NGS test result. The results of this study will be the basis for an additional analytical route within NBS that will be further studied for its applicability within the NBS program, e.g., regarding the ethical, legal, financial and social implications.</p

Wound-up phase turbulence in the Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

We consider phase turbulent regimes with nonzero winding number in the one-dimensional Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. We find that phase turbulent states with winding number larger than a critical one are only transients and decay to states within a range of allowed winding numbers. The analogy with the Eckhaus instability for non-turbulent waves is stressed. The transition from phase to defect turbulence is interpreted as an ergodicity breaking transition which occurs when the range of allowed winding numbers vanishes. We explain the states reached at long times in terms of three basic states, namely quasiperiodic states, frozen turbulence states, and riding turbulence states. Justification and some insight into them is obtained from an analysis of a phase equation for nonzero winding number: rigidly moving solutions of this equation, which correspond to quasiperiodic and frozen turbulence states, are understood in terms of periodic and chaotic solutions of an associated system of ordinary differential equations. A short report of some of our results has been published in [Montagne et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 267 (1996)].Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures included. Uses subfigure.sty (included) and epsf.tex (not included). Related research in http://www.imedea.uib.es/Nonlinea