Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of risk in the current United States situation are presented. Sufficient conditions on the structure of the economy for such intergenerational risk pooling to be mutually beneficial to all members of society are derived. Although it is logically possible to satisfy them1 we argue that they are unlikely to be realized empirically in an economy similar to that of the United States. Because of this failure, some more complex types of policy options are also discussed.

Compensatory Transfers in Two-Player Decision Problems

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of a family of solutions to two-player quasi-linear social choice problems. In these problems the players select a single action from a set available to them. They may also transfer money between themselves. The solutions form a one-parameter family, where the parameter is a nonnegative number, t. The solutions can be interpreted as follows: Any efficient action can be selected. Based on this action, compute for each player a "best claim for compensation". A claim for compensation is the difference between the value of an alternative action and the selected efficient action, minus a penalty proportional to the extent to which the alternative action is inefficient. The coefficient of proportionality of this penalty is t. The best claim for compensation for a player is the maximum of this computed claim over all possible alternative actions. The solution, at the parameter value t, is to implement the chosen efficient action and make a monetary transfer equal to the average of these two best claims. The characterization relies on three main axioms. The paper presents and justifies these axioms and compares them to related conditions used in other bargaining contexts. In Nash Bargaining Theory, the axioms analagous to these three are in conflict with each other. In contrast, in the quasi-linear social choice setting of this paper, all three conditions can be satisfied simultaneously.

ECONOMIC RESEARCH IN FOOD SAFETY - PUTTING THE PUZZLE TOGETHER: DISCUSSION

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

RELEVANCE OF POLICY ANALYSIS: NEEDS FOR DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION AND PACKAGING

This article challenges the traditional model of the economist as a humble technocrat who simply provides analysis given the preferences of policy decision-makers. Since decision-makers rarely reveal their preferences, it is important that the would-be policy research/analyst know the political economy and be willing to identify potential performance goals for society. Researchers who are willing to incur the transaction cost associated with becoming involved in useful policy research must learn to work within the imperfect policy process. Policy research that considers the importance of implementation and that acknowledges the institutions and the history will have the highest chance of being useful to policy-makers.Implementation, Institutions, Policy research, Political economy, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Lunar base thermal management/power system analysis and design

A compilation of several lunar surface thermal management and power system studies completed under contract and IR&D is presented. The work includes analysis and preliminary design of all major components of an integrated thermal management system, including loads determination, active internal acquisition and transport equipment, external transport systems (active and passive), passive insulation, solar shielding, and a range of lunar surface radiator concepts. Several computer codes were utilized in support of this study, including RADSIM to calculate radiation exchange factors and view factors, RADIATOR (developed in-house) for heat rejection system sizing and performance analysis over a lunar day, SURPWER for power system sizing, and CRYSTORE for cryogenic system performance predictions. Although much of the work was performed in support of lunar rover studies, any or all of the results can be applied to a range of surface applications. Output data include thermal loads summaries, subsystem performance data, mass, and volume estimates (where applicable), integrated and worst-case lunar day radiator size/mass and effective sink temperatures for several concepts (shielded and unshielded), and external transport system performance estimates for both single and two-phase (heat pumped) transport loops. Several advanced radiator concepts are presented, along with brief assessments of possible system benefits and potential drawbacks. System point designs are presented for several cases, executed in support of the contract and IR&D studies, although the parametric nature of the analysis is stressed to illustrate applicability of the analysis procedure to a wide variety of lunar surface systems. The reference configuration(s) derived from the various studies will be presented along with supporting criteria. A preliminary design will also be presented for the reference basing scenario, including qualitative data regarding TPS concerns and issues

Taxation and the Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Common Stock Prices

The behavior of stock prices around ex-dividend days has been suggested as evidence for tax-induced clientele effects and as a means to estimate the average effective tax rate faced by investors. In this paper these possibilities are examined theoretically and empirically. Theoretically it is shown that the measured price drop per dollar of dividend may provide a biased estimate of the effective tax rate. Looking at the volume of trade around ex-dividend days we show that the conditions under which it would be unbiased are unlikely to hold. Strong evidence, based on a broader database than that used by previous investigators, is presented for the presence of the clientele effect.

Notes on the Public Debt and Social Insurance

In these notes I hope to touch on a variety of issues relating to public debt and social insurance and to suggest ways in which they might be approached. It is to be viewed as a research proposal, or an outline of open problems rather than as a statement of results. The notes are divided into two sections. In the first, problems of intertemporal reallocation of resources through the public debt and social security are treated in the context of complete certainty about future events. Both positive and normative aspects of the problem are investigated, but principle emphasis is given to the latter. In the second section, the set of issues related to uncertainty and the role of intergenerational social insurance in its mitigation are explored.