Electricity Intensities of the OECD and South Africa: A Comparison

Improving a country’s electricity efficiency is considered one of the important ways to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and to meet its commitments concerning climate change mitigation. In this paper, we conduct a comparative analysis between South Africa and OECD members’ total and sectoral electricity intensities. This is done to establish a sense of South Africa’s relative performance in this regard, to ascertain the possible scope for improvement and, if such scope exists, to determine in which of the industrial sectors

South Africa’s Electricity Consumption: A Sectoral Decomposition Analysis

South Africa's electricity consumption has increased sharply since the early 1990s. Here we conduct a sectoral decomposition analysis of the electricity consumption for the period 1993 to 2006, to determine the main drivers of this increase. The results show that the increase was due mainly to output- or production-related factors, with structural changes playing a secondary role. While there is some evidence of efficiency improvements, indicated here as a slowdown in the rate of increase in electricity intensity, it was not nearly sufficient to offset the combined production and structural effects that propelled electricity consumption higher.

Just energy transition of South Africa in a post-COVID era

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : Data can be shared upon request.The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked global debate over how green economic recovery may and should be, and if the pandemic has accelerated the present energy transition while assuring a just transition for vulnerable populations such as unskilled workers and women. This study investigates the socioeconomic impact of South Africa’s planned green energy transition, with a focus on the Mpumalanga province—the country’s largest coal mining region with many coal-fired power plants. Using a regional-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study analyses the economy-wide effects of different policy scenarios related to a changing electricity generation mix, investment financing costs, and international action against non-compliant industries, amongst others, with a specific focus on the vulnerable industries and population groups in Mpumalanga. Key results from the study highlights that (1) the structure of the Mpumalanga economy will be affected in the medium to long run regardless of the domestic transition path, (2) the Mpumalanga economy is indeed in danger of shrinking relative to the baseline, unless the Just Energy Transition (JET) is quickly and carefully managed, and (3) at a national level, at least, there is the strong possibility of a double dividend when greening the South African economy with overall economic growth and environmental outcomes expected to improve in the long run.GIZ-South Africa.https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainabilityam2024EconomicsSDG-07:Affordable and clean energ

An economy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa : the case of Medupi and Kusile

This paper investigates the role that the building of two new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, will play in facilitating future economic activity in South Africa. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economy-wide effects of these new power stations. Our simulation results also provide insight into how much the local economy has lost due to inadequate electricity supply in the period leading up to the construction of Medupi and Kusile. We find that the decision to build additional power generation capacity was necessary and justified, and that the failure to sooner recognise the need for expansion of the country’s electricity generation capacity and subsequent delays in commissioning Medupi and Kusile, likely cost the economy over R110bn in lost production. Additional analysis, in which a further two-year delay in the construction of Medupi and Kusile is simulated, shows that such an event will cause the economy to perform below baseline projections up to 2022.Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA)http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol2017-10-31hb2016Economic

The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation. To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter. Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (-71.8% in the 1990s and -94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations. Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of - cheaper - energy.Electricity price South Africa Kalman filter

Which type of energy drove industrial growth in the US from 2000 to 2018 ?

This paper investigates the impacts of non-renewable consumption (NRE) and renewable energy consumption (RE) on industrial production (IP) in the US using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2018:02. To do so, the paper employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to examine asymmetric relationships, thus contributing to the past literature methodologically. The findings show that both non-renewable and renewable energy drive industrial growth in the US and that a certain asymmetric behaviour can be concluded: the impact of an increase in NRE on IP is greater than that of a decrease in NRE on IP, while the influence of an increase in RE on IP seems to be less than that of a decrease in RE on IP. © 2019 The Author

Regional employment and economic growth effects of South Africa's transition to low-carbon energy supply mix

This paper examines the long-run regional economic effects within South Africa of changing the electricity-generation mix towards less coal. To do so, a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa is employed for the analysis. The overall result stemmed from all scenarios suggest that the effect of a transition to an energy supply mix with smaller share of coal generation is sensitive to other economic and policy conditions, in particular the reaction of the global coal market and hence, South Africa’s coal exports. Under conditions in which surplus coal resulting from lower domestic demand cannot be readily exported, the economies of coal-producing regions in South Africa such as the Mpumalanga province are the most severely affected. The subsequent migration of semi-skilled labour from that province to others within the country require appropriate and timeous planning by energy policymakers and urban planners.Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) for publishing working paper 756.https://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol2020-05-01hj2019Economic