DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : Data can be shared upon request.The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked global debate over how green
economic recovery may and should be, and if the pandemic has accelerated the present energy
transition while assuring a just transition for vulnerable populations such as unskilled workers and
women. This study investigates the socioeconomic impact of South Africa’s planned green energy
transition, with a focus on the Mpumalanga province—the country’s largest coal mining region with
many coal-fired power plants. Using a regional-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE)
model, the study analyses the economy-wide effects of different policy scenarios related to a changing
electricity generation mix, investment financing costs, and international action against non-compliant
industries, amongst others, with a specific focus on the vulnerable industries and population groups
in Mpumalanga. Key results from the study highlights that (1) the structure of the Mpumalanga
economy will be affected in the medium to long run regardless of the domestic transition path, (2)
the Mpumalanga economy is indeed in danger of shrinking relative to the baseline, unless the Just
Energy Transition (JET) is quickly and carefully managed, and (3) at a national level, at least, there is
the strong possibility of a double dividend when greening the South African economy with overall
economic growth and environmental outcomes expected to improve in the long run.GIZ-South Africa.https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainabilityam2024EconomicsSDG-07:Affordable and clean energ
