Deconvolution of isotope signals from bundles of multiple hairs

pre-printSegmental analysis of hair has been used in diverse fields ranging from forensics to ecology to measure the concentration of substances such as drugs and isotopes. Multiple hairs are typically combined into a bundle for segmental analysis to obtain a high-resolution series of measurements. Individual hair strands cycle through multiple phases of growth and grow at different rates when in the growth phase. Variation in growth of hair strands in a bundle can cause misalignment of substance concentration between hairs, attenuating the primary body signal. We developed a mathematical model based on the known physiology of hair growth to describe the signal averaging caused by bundling multiple hairs for segmental analysis. The model was used to form an inverse method to estimate the primary body signal from measurements of a hair bundle. The inverse method was applied to a previously described stable oxygen isotope chronology from the hair of a murder victim and provides a refined interpretation of the data. Aspects of the reconstruction were confirmed when the victim was later identified

Mathematical modeling of liver injury and dysfunction after acetaminophen overdose: early discrimination between survival and death

pre-printAcetaminophen is the leading cause of acute liver injury in the developed world. Timely administration of N-Acetylcysteine (N-Ac) prevents the progression of serious liver injury and disease, while failure to administer N-Ac within a critical time frame allows disease progression and in the most severe cases may result in liver failure or death. In this situation, liver transplantation may be the only life-saving measure. Thus, the outcome of an acetaminophen overdose depends upon the size of the overdose and the time to first administration of N-Ac. We developed a system of differential equations to describe acute liver injury due to acetaminophen overdose. The Model for Acetaminophen-induced Liver Damage (MALD) uses a patient's AST, ALT, and INR measurements on admission to estimate overdose amount, time elapsed since overdose, and outcome. The mathematical model was then tested on 53 patients from the University of Utah. With the addition of serum creatinine, eventual death was predicted with 100% sensitivity, 91% specificity, 67% PPV, and 100% NPV in this retrospective study. Using only initial AST, ALT, and INR measurements, the model accurately predicted subsequent laboratory values for the majority of individual patients. This is the first dynamical rather than statistical approach to determine poor prognosis in patients with life-threatening liver disease due to acetaminophen overdose. Conclusion: MALD provides a method to estimate overdose amount, time elapsed since overdose, and outcome from patient laboratory values commonly available on admission in cases of acute liver failure due to acetaminophen overdose and should be validated in multicentric prospective evaluation

Association Between Use of Specific Drugs and Antiretroviral Adherence: Findings from MACH 14

To determine the association between individual substances of abuse and antiretroviral adherence, analyses require a large sample assessed using electronic data monitoring (EDM). In this analysis, EDM data from 1636 participants in 12 U.S. adherence-focused studies were analyzed to determine the associations between recent use of various substances and adherence during the preceding four weeks. In bivariate analyses comparing adherence among patients who had used a specific substance to those who had not, adherence was significantly lower among those who had recently used cocaine, other stimulants or heroin but not among those who had used cannabis or alcohol. In multivariate analyses controlling for sociodemographics, amount of alcohol use and recent use of any alcohol, cocaine, other stimulants and heroin each was significantly negatively associated with adherence. The significant associations of cocaine, other stimulants, heroin, and alcohol use with adherence suggest that these are important substances to target with adherence-focused interventions

The Association Between Poor Antiretroviral Adherence and Unsafe Sex: Differences by Gender and Sexual Orientation and Implications for Scale-up of Treatment as Prevention

Non-adherence to safer sex and non-adherence to ART can each have adverse health consequences for HIV-infected individuals and their sex partners, but little is known about the association of these behaviors with each other. This “dual risk” has potential negative public health consequences since non-adherence can lead to the development of resistant virus that can then be transmitted to sex partners

MACH14: A Multi-Site Collaboration on ART Adherence Among 14 Institutions

The integration of original data from multiple antiretroviral (ARV) adherence studies offers a promising, but little used method to generate evidence to advance the field. This paper provides an overview of the design and implementation of MACH14, a collaborative, multi-site study in which a large data system has been created for integrated analyses by pooling original data from 16 longitudinal ARV adherence studies. Studies selected met specific criteria including similar research design and data domains such as adherence measured with medication event monitoring system, psychosocial factors related to adherence behavior, and virologic and clinical outcomes. The data system created contains individual data (collected between 1997 and 2009) from 2,860 HIV patients. Collaboration helped resolve the challenges inherent in pooling data across multiple studies, yet produced a data system with strong statistical power and potentially greater capacity to address key scientific questions than possible with single-sample studies or even meta-analytic designs

HIV-related travel restrictions: trends and country characteristics

Introduction: Increasingly, HIV-seropositive individuals cross international borders. HIV-related restrictions on entry, stay, and residence imposed by countries have important consequences for this mobile population. Our aim was to describe the geographical distribution of countries with travel restrictions and to examine the trends and characteristics of countries with such restrictions. Methods: In 2011, data presented to UNAIDS were used to establish a list of countries with and without HIV restrictions on entry, stay, and residence and to describe their geographical distribution. The following indicators were investigated to describe the country characteristics: population at mid-year, international migrants as a percentage of the population, Human Development Index, estimated HIV prevalence (age: 15–49), presence of a policy prohibiting HIV screening for general employment purposes, government and civil society responses to having non-discrimination laws/regulations which specify migrants/mobile populations, government and civil society responses to having laws/regulations/policies that present obstacles to effective HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support for migrants/mobile populations, Corruption Perception Index, and gross national income per capita. Results: HIV-related restrictions exist in 45 out of 193 WHO countries (23%) in all regions of the world. We found that the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific Regions have the highest proportions of countries with these restrictions. Our analyses showed that countries that have opted for restrictions have the following characteristics: smaller populations, higher proportions of migrants in the population, lower HIV prevalence rates, and lack of legislation protecting people living with HIV from screening for employment purposes, compared with countries without restrictions. Conclusion: Countries with a high proportion of international migrants tend to have travel restrictions – a finding that is relevant to migrant populations and travel medicine providers alike. Despite international pressure to remove travel restrictions, many countries continue to implement these restrictions for HIV-positive individuals on entry and stay. Since 2010, the United States and China have engaged in high profile removals. This may be indicative of an increasing trend, facilitated by various factors, including international advocacy and the setting of a UNAIDS goal to halve the number of countries with restrictions by 2015

The Validity of Self-Reported Medication Adherence as an Outcome in Clinical Trials of Adherence-Promotion Interventions: Findings from the MACH14 Study

In medication adherence-promotion trials, participants in the intervention arm are often cognizant of the researcher’s aim to improve adherence; this may lead to their inflating reports of their own adherence compared to control arm participants. Using data from 1,247 HIV-positive participants across eight U.S. Studies in the Multisite Adherence Collaboration on HIV (MACH14) collaboration, we evaluated the validity of self-reported adherence by examining whether its association with two more objective outcomes [1], electronically monitored adherence and [2] viral load, varied by study arm. After adjusting for potential confounders, there was no evidence of greater overestimation of self-reported adherence among intervention arm participants, supporting its potential as a trial outcome indicator