Modeling house price dynamics with heterogeneous speculators

This paper investigates the impact of speculative behavior on house price dynamics. Speculative demand for housing is modeled using a heterogeneous agent approach, whereas ‘real’ demand and housing supply are represented in a standard way. Together, real and speculative forces determine excess demand in each period and house price adjustments. Three alternative models are proposed, capturing in different ways the interplay between fundamental trading rules and extrapolative trading rules, resulting in a 2D, a 3D, and a 4D nonlinear discretetime dynamical system, respectively. While the destabilizing effect of speculative behavior on the model’s steady state is proven in general, the three specific cases illustrate a variety of situations that can bring about endogenous dynamics, with lasting and significant price swings around the ‘fundamental ’ price, as we have seen in many real markets

The prevalence of insufficient iodine intake in pregnancy in Africa: Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Insufficient iodine intake in pregnancy is associated with many adverse pregnancy outcomes. About 90% of African countries are at risk of iodine deficiency due to poor soils and dietary goitrogens. Pregnancy predisposes to insufficient iodine nutrition secondary to increased physiological demand and increased renal loss. Iodine deficiency is re-emerging in countries thought to be replete with pregnant women being the most affected. This review seeks to identify the degree of iodine nutrition in pregnancy on the entire African continent before and after the implementation of national iodization programmes. Methods: A systematic search of published literature will be conducted for observational studies that directly determined the prevalence of insufficient iodine intake among pregnant women in Africa. Electronic databases and grey literature will be searched for baseline data before the implementation of population-based iodine supplementation and for follow-up data up to December 2018. Screening of identified articles and data extraction will be conducted independently by two investigators. Risk of bias and methodological quality of the included studies will be assessed using a risk of bias tool. Appropriate meta-analytic techniques will be used to pool prevalence estimates from studies with similar features, overall and by major characteristics including the region of the study, time period (before and after implementation of iodization programmes), sample size and age. Heterogeneity of the estimates across studies will be quantified and publication bias investigated. This protocol is reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 guidelines. Discussion This review will help ascertain the impact of national iodization programmes on the iodine nutrition status in pregnancy in Africa and advise policy on the necessity for monitoring and mitigating iodine deficiency in pregnancy in Africa. This review is part of a thesis that will be submitted to the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, for the award of a PhD in Medicine whose protocol has been granted ethics approval (UCT HREC 135/2018). In addition, the results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal

A Remark on Magdalinos's k-Class Instrumental Variable Estimator

In this paper we identify a restriction on the finite-sample application of Magdalinos's asymptotic expansions for the t statistic based on the k -class instrumental variable estimator.