Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of the EMU

Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro period of diverging patterns between the core and the peripheral EMU countries raising questions about the future stability of EMU

Monte Carlo Markov chains constrained on graphs for a target with disconnected support

This paper presents a theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov chain is constrained over an underlying graph so that states are viewed as vertices, and the transition between two states can have positive probability only in the presence of an edge connecting them. The analysis focuses on the relevant case of support of the target distribution not connected in the graph. Some general arguments on the speed of convergence are also carried out

Stochastic Ising model with flipping sets of spins and fast decreasing temperature

This paper deals with the stochastic Ising model with a temperature shrinking to zero as time goes to infinity. A generalization of the Glauber dynamics is considered, on the basis of the existence of simultaneous flips of some spins. Such dynamics act on a wide class of graphs which are periodic and embedded in Rd. The interactions between couples of spins are assumed to be quenched i.i.d. random variables following a Bernoulli distribution with support {−1, +1}. The specific problem here analyzed concerns the assessment of how often (finitely or infinitely many times, almost surely) a given spin flips. Adopting the classification proposed in [14], we present conditions in order to have models of type F (any spin flips finitely many times), I (any spin flips infinitely many times) and M (a mixed case). Several examples are provided in all dimensions and for different cases of graphs. The most part of the obtained results holds true for the case of zero-temperature and some of them for the cubic lattice Ld = (Z d, Ed) as wel

The role of the occupational therapist in disaster areas: systematic review

Background. Disasters are increasingly more frequent events on our planet. During disaster the role of the occupational therapist will require a more specific operative framework within nongovernmental organizations and community health services. Design. Systematic review. Objective. The aim of this study is to evaluate the evidence that highlight occupational therapist’s role in disaster area through a systematic review. Materials and Methods. Research on MEDLINE was performed. All articles from 2005 to 2015 concerning rehabilitation and occupational therapy in disaster areas were included. Results. Ten studies were selected to be included in this review. Four interesting points emerged: the importance of having rehabilitation intervention in postdisaster situations, the necessity to include a rehabilitation team in the early phase of disaster response, the need to provide a method to address the difficult evacuation, and finding the safest method of transport of people with preexisting disabilities and new injuries. Conclusions. The amount of evidence with respect to specific intervention of the occupational therapist’s role in a disaster situation is limited. However some evidence suggests that it could be a good means for reducing the number of medical complications and deaths of persons with preexisting disabilities. The evidences found highlight the necessity to create a multidisciplinary team addressing needs in disasters situation, in which the occupational therapist could certainly contribute

Detecting geomagnetic field nonlinearities by bispectral analysis and a phase coupling nonlinear technique

The Earth's magnetic field varies over a wide range of characteristic times, say, from years to centuries, and more. In order to detect some nonlinear features of the geomagnetic field evolution we first apply a nonlinear spectral technique, i.e. bispectral analysis, to the secular variation of Hartland Geomagnetic Observatory (U.K.). Then, due to difficulties of bispectral analysis inherent in the shortness of data, we introduce a simpler, but more efficient, technique called Spectral Phase Analysis for Quadratic Coupling Estimation (SPAQCE). Both nonlinear spectral methods here applied are based on the presence of a phase (sum and difference) coupling in case of quadratic interactions between two constituent components of the physical system underlying the generation of the geomagnetic field. The application of SPAQCE to annual means of a UK combined geomagnetic time series allows us to discriminate nonlinear interactions between couples of characteristic times (specifically 5-6, 5-8 and 2-26 years) of the field generated in the outer core