On the Integrated Spectrum of the X-ray Binaries and the Origin of Soft X-ray Emission from the Bulge of M31

Using ROSAT PSPC data, we have performed several tests aimed at understanding the origin of the soft X-ray spectral component detected from the bulge of M31. We find that a significant soft component in the spectrum of the bulge is spatially correlated with the unresolved X-ray emission near the core of M31, which is probably a hot interstellar medium or perhaps a population of multiple faint sources. For the first time, we extracted the spectrum of this unresolved emission, by removing point sources dominating the integral spectrum of the bulge, and found it to be responsible for the most of soft excess. A soft spectral component is not at all needed to fit the point source spectrum that remains after subtracting the unresolved emission. The integral spectra of bright point sources, both inside and outside of the M31 bulge, can be fitted with a single power-law in the ROSAT band. Our analysis rules out the previous suggestion that all bulge emission in M31 may be generated by low mass X-ray binaries (Irwin & Bregman, 1999).Comment: 11 pages incl. 2 figures, 2 tables, accepted to ApJ

Millenium Year X-ray Transients in Andromeda Galaxy

We study three transient X-ray sources, that were bright in the central region of M31 galaxy in the year 2000. Observations with Chandra and XMM-Newton allowed us for the first time in the history of X-ray astronomy, to build light curves of transient sources in M31 suitable for studying their variability on a time scale of months and, in some periods, weeks. The three sources demonstrate distinctly different types of X-ray variability and spectral evolution. XMMU J004234.1+411808 is most likely a black hole candidate based on the similarity of its X-ray light curve and spectra to typical transient low-mass X-ray binaries observed in our Galaxy. The outburst of CXO J004242.0+411608 lasted longer than a year, which makes the source an unusual X-ray transient. The supersoft transient XMMU J004319.4+ 411759 is probably a classical nova-like system containing a magnetized, rapidly-spinning white dwarf. We estimate a total rate of X-ray transient outbursts in the central bulge of M31 to be of the order ~10 per year. The rate of the hard X-ray transients (~5 1/year) in the central part of the Andromeda Galaxy appears to be comparable to that of the central part of our own Galaxy.Comment: ApJ Letters, submitte

MOXE: An X-ray all-sky monitor for Soviet Spectrum-X-Gamma Mission

A Monitoring Monitoring X-Ray Equipment (MOXE) is being developed for the Soviet Spectrum-X-Gamma Mission. MOXE is an X-ray all-sky monitor based on array of pinhole cameras, to be provided via a collaboration between Goddard Space Flight Center and Los Alamos National Laboratory. The objectives are to alert other observers on Spectrum-X-Gamma and other platforms of interesting transient activity, and to synoptically monitor the X-ray sky and study long-term changes in X-ray binaries. MOXE will be sensitive to sources as faint as 2 milliCrab (5 sigma) in 1 day, and cover the 2 to 20 KeV band

SkyDOT (Sky Database for Objects in the Time Domain): A Virtual Observatory for Variability Studies at LANL

The mining of Virtual Observatories (VOs) is becoming a powerful new method for discovery in astronomy. Here we report on the development of SkyDOT (Sky Database for Objects in the Time domain), a new Virtual Observatory, which is dedicated to the study of sky variability. The site will confederate a number of massive variability surveys and enable exploration of the time domain in astronomy. We discuss the architecture of the database and the functionality of the user interface. An important aspect of SkyDOT is that it is continuously updated in near real time so that users can access new observations in a timely manner. The site will also utilize high level machine learning tools that will allow sophisticated mining of the archive. Another key feature is the real time data stream provided by RAPTOR (RAPid Telescopes for Optical Response), a new sky monitoring experiment under construction at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).Comment: to appear in SPIE proceedings vol. 4846, 11 pages, 5 figure

Fast X-ray Transients and Their Connection to Gamma-Ray Bursts

Fast X-ray transients (FXTs) with timescales from seconds to hours have been seen by numerous space instruments. We have assembled archival data from Ariel-5, HEAO-1 (A-1 and A-2), WATCH, ROSAT, and Einstein to produce a global fluence-frequency relationship for these events. Fitting the log N-log S distribution over several orders of magnitude to simple power law we find a slope of -1.0. The sources of FXTs are undoubtedly heterogeneous, the -1 power law is an approximate result of the summation of these multiple sources. Two major contributions come from gamma-ray bursts and stellar flares. Extrapolating from the BATSE catalog of GRBs, we find that the fraction of X-ray flashes that can be the X-ray counterparts of gamma-ray bursts is a function of fluence. Certainly most FXTs are not counterparts of standard gamma-ray bursts. The fraction of FXTs from non-GRB sources, such as magnetic stars, is greatest for the faintest FXTs. Our understanding of the FXT phenomenon remains limited and would greatly benefit from a large, homogeneous data set, which requires a wide-field, sensitive instrument.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figure

Bright X-ray Transients in M31: 2004 July XMM-Newton Observations

We present the results of X-ray observations of four bright transients sources detected in the July 2004 XMM-Newton observations of the central bulge of M31. Two X-ray sources, XMMU J004315.5+412440 and XMMU J004144.7+411110, were discovered for the first time. Two other sources, CXOM31 J004309.9+412332 and CXOM31 J004241.8+411635, were previously detected by Chandra. The properties of the sources suggest their identification with accreting binary systems in M31. The X-ray spectra and variability of two sources, XMMU J004144.7+411110 and CXOM31 J004241.8+411635, are similar to that of the Galactic black hole transients, making them a good black hole candidates. The X-ray source XMMU J004315.5+412440 demonstrates a dramatic decline of the X-ray flux on a time scale of three days, and a remarkable flaring behavior on a short time scales. The X-ray data on XMMU J004315.5+412440 and CXOM31 J004309.9+412332 suggest that they can be either black hole or neutron star systems. Combining the results of 2000-2004 XMM observations of M31, we estimate a total rate of the bright transient outbursts in the central region of M31 to be 6-12 per year, in agreement with previous studies.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, uses emulateapj style. Submitted to Ap

Estimating influenza incidence using search query deceptiveness and generalized ridge regression

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically-selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figure

Warping of Accretion Disks with Magnetically Driven Outflows: A Possible Origin for Jet Precession

Current theoretical models for the outflows/jets from AGN, X-ray binaries and young stellar objects involve large-scale magnetic fields threading an underlying accretion disk. We suggest that such a disk is subjected to warping instability and retrograde precession driven by magnetic torques associated with the outflow. The growth timescale for the disk warp and the precession period are of order the radial infall time of the disk. These effects may be relevant to jet precession and other variabilities observed in many systems.Comment: 4 pages with 2 figures. ApJL in pres

An Unusual X-ray Burst from the Globular Cluster M28

We report the discovery of an unusual X-ray burst from the direction of the Globular Cluster M28 using data acquired with the ASCA Observatory. The burst was recorded by all four ASCA telescopes and displays a fast (~ 70 ms) rise followed by an exponential decay (t = 7.5 s) and a steady afterglow which lasts between 800 - 3250 s. The image of the burst is consistent with an ASCA point source and is centered on quiescent X-ray emission from the core of M28. The burst temporal profile is similar to Type-I bursts emitted by accreting neutron stars of low mass X-ray binaries (LMXB). We argue that the burst arises from an LMXB that is located in the core of M28. The burst is unique in two ways: it is intrinsically sub-luminous, ~ 0.02 L_Edd and more importantly, originates from a source whose quiescent luminosity is fainter than that of the known cluster bursters by three orders of magnitude. We suggest that this burst is from a highly magnetized neutron star accreting at a low rate. These accreting systems may account for the mysterious low luminosity X-ray sources in globular clusters.Comment: 13 pages with 3 eps figures, LATEX, aastex, psfig. To appear in the Astrophysical Journal Letter