The Complexity of Approximating a Trembling Hand Perfect Equilibrium of a Multi-player Game in Strategic Form

We consider the task of computing an approximation of a trembling hand perfect equilibrium for an n-player game in strategic form, n >= 3. We show that this task is complete for the complexity class FIXP_a. In particular, the task is polynomial time equivalent to the task of computing an approximation of a Nash equilibrium in strategic form games with three (or more) players.Comment: conference version to appear at SAGT'1

Commodity price modelling that matches current observables: a new approach

We develop a stochastic model of the spot commodity price and the spot convenience yield such that the model matches the current term structure of forward and futures prices, the current term structure of forward and futures volatilities, and the inter-temporal pattern of the volatility of the forward and futures prices. We let the underlying commodity price be a geometric Brownian motion and we let the spot convenience yield have a mean-reverting structure. The flexibility of the model, which makes it possible to simultaneously achieve all these goals, comes from allowing the volatility of the spot commodity price, the speed of mean-reversion parameter, the mean-reversion parameter, and the diffusion parameter of the spot convenience yield all to be time-varying deterministic functions.

New No-arbitrage Conditions and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Futures

No-arbitrage restrictions, Term structure of interest rates, Interest rate futures, Change of measure, G13,

Modelling electricity prices with forward looking capacity constraints

We present a spot price model for wholesale electricity prices which incorporates forward looking information that is available to all market players. We focus on information that measures the extent to which the capacity of the England and Wales generation park will be constrained over the next 52 weeks. We propose a measure of 'tight market conditions', based on capacity constraints, which identifies the weeks of the year when price spikes are more likely to occur. We show that the incorporation of this type of forward looking information, not uncommon in electricity markets, improves the modelling of spikes (timing and magnitude) and the different speeds of mean reversion