Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Oxygen Isotopes of Al-Rich Chondrules from Unequilibrated Ordinary Chondrites

Al-rich chondrules (ARCs) are a rare constituent of chondrites. They have relatively high bulk Al_2O_3 content (> 10 wt%), which is due to the presence of Al-rich phases, such as plagioclase, spinel, Al-rich glass etc. [1]. ARCs share some chemical and petrologic characteristics with Ca, Al-rich inclusions (CAis), and may represent a genetic link between ferromagnesian chondrules and CAis

A Universal Point Set for 2-Outerplanar Graphs

A point set $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^2$ is universal for a class $\cal G$ if every graph of ${\cal G}$ has a planar straight-line embedding on $S$. It is well-known that the integer grid is a quadratic-size universal point set for planar graphs, while the existence of a sub-quadratic universal point set for them is one of the most fascinating open problems in Graph Drawing. Motivated by the fact that outerplanarity is a key property for the existence of small universal point sets, we study 2-outerplanar graphs and provide for them a universal point set of size $O(n \log n)$.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, conference version at GD 201

Induction, characterization, and cell transfer of autoimmune tubulointerstitial nephritis

Induction, characterization, and cell transfer of autoimmune tubulointerstitial nephritis. Autoimmune tubulointerstitial nephritis (TIN) was induced in Lewis (LEW) rats by immunization with homologous Brown–Norway (BN) rat renal basement membrane (RBM), complete Freund's adjuvant and Bordetella pertussis vaccine. The BN strain has a tubular basement membrane (TBM) antigen (Ag+) detectable by immunofluorescence which is lacking in unmodified LEW rat TBM. Development of TIN in LEW rats correlated with TBM Ag+ immunogens from homologous and heterologous RBM preparations. By day 14 after immunization TIN developed characterized by elevated serum creatinine levels and by tubular destruction with focal, circumscribed lesions containing epithelioid cells, giant cells and mononuclear cell infiltrates. Approximately 60% of the mononuclear cells bore T cell antigens with most cells expressing la markers. Immunofluorescence and elution studies revealed no selective IgG fixation to TBM at day 14 despite high titers of circulating alloantibody reactive with the immunizing TBM. Intravenous transfer of LNC and/or splenic cells (3.5 to 7 × 108) to naive LEW rats resulted in less severe but histologically identical TIN in seven days with T cell subpopulations similar to those seen in the active model. This model strongly suggests an initiating role for cell–mediated immunity in TIN in the rat and may provide a parallel to human TIN

The “ABC model”: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

In developing methods for convective-scale data assimilation (DA) it is necessary to consider the full range of motions governed by the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (including non-hydrostatic and ageostrophic flow). These equations describe motion on a wide range of time-scales with non-linear coupling. For the purpose of developing new DA techniques that suit the convective-scale problem it is helpful to use so-called ‘toy models’ that are easy to run, and contain the same types of motion as the full equation set. Such a model needs to permit hydrostatic and geostrophic balance at large-scales, but to allow imbalance at small-scales, and in particular, it needs to exhibit intermittent convection-like behaviour. Existing ‘toy models’ are not always sufficient for investigating these issues. A simplified system of intermediate complexity derived from the Euler equations is presented, which supports dispersive gravity and acoustic modes. In this system the separation of time scales can be greatly reduced by changing the physical parameters. Unlike in existing toy models, this allows the acoustic modes to be treated explicitly, and hence inexpensively. In addition, the non-linear coupling induced by the equation of state is simplified. This means that the gravity and acoustic modes are less coupled than in conventional models. A vertical slice formulation is used which contains only dry dynamics. The model is shown to give physically reasonable results, and convective behaviour is generated by localised compressible effects. This model provides an affordable and flexible framework within which some of the complex issues of convective-scale DA can later be investigated. The model is called the “ABC model” after the three tunable parameters introduced: A (the pure gravity wave frequency), B (the modulation of the divergent term in the continuity equation), and C (defining the compressibility)