Affordability and the Value of Seller Financing

The typical methodology in valuing seller financing consists of calculating a discount -- the present value of the after-tax interest savings due to the creative financing --and including this variable, along with other characteristics of the purchased house, in an hedonic price equation explaining the house price actually paid. Resulting from this equation is a set of marginal prices corresponding to each characteristic of the house, including the quantity (discount) of creative finance accompanying the house. The central question usually addressed is whether the discount is fully capitalized in the value of the house -- whether the price of creative finance is unity. In our view, one should not ask what the price of creative finance is because this price, like that of other housing attributes, likely depends upon supply and demand conditions. We develop and estimate a model incorporating this dependency.

Borrowing Constraints and the Tenure Choice of Young Households

In this paper we analyze the factors that affect the tenure choice of young adults, highlighting the impact of mortgage lender imposed borrowing constraints. The data set is a panel of youth age 20-33 for the years 1985-90. Our methods differ from most prior studies in many ways including consideration of possible sample selection bias, a richer model of the stochastic error structure, better measurement of which households are bound by borrowing constraints, and a fuller consideration of the endogeneity of wealth and income. Once all changes are implemented, we find ownership tendencies to be quite sensitive to economic variables. Specifically, potential earnings, the relative cost of owning a home, and especially borrowing constraints affect the tendency to own a home. In our sample of youth, 37% of households are constrained even after choosing their loan-to-value ratio to minimize the impact of the separate wealth and income requirements. The constraints reduce the probability of ownership of these households by 10 to 20 percentage points (a third to a half) depending on the particular characteristics of the household.

Real Estate and the Tax Reform Act of 1986

In contrast to the conventional wisdom, real estate activity in the aggregate is not disfavored by the 1986 Tax Act. Within the broad aggregate, however, widely different impacts are to be expected. Regular rental and commercial activity will be slightly disfavored, while historic and old rehabilitation activity will be greatly disfavored. In contrast, owner- occupied housing, far and away the largest component of real estate, is favored, both directly by an interest rate decline and indirectly owing to the increase in rents. Low-income rental housing may be the most favored of all real estate activities. The rent increase for residential properties will be 10 to 15 percent with our assumption of a percentage point decline in interest rates. For commercial properties, the expected rent increase is 5 to 10 percent. The market value decline, which will be greater the longer and further investors think rents will be below the new equilibrium, is unlikely to exceed 4 percent in fast growth markets, even if substantial excess capacity currently exists. In no-growth markets with substantial excess capacity, market values could decline by as much as 8 percent from already depressed levels. Average housing costs will decrease slightly for households with incomes below about $60,000, but increase by 5 percent for those with incomes above twice this level. With the projected increase in rents, homeownership should rise for all income classes, but especially for those with income under$60,000. The aggregate home ownership rate is projected to increase by three percentage points in the long run in response to the Tax Act. The new passive loss limitations are likely to lower significantly the values of recent loss-motivated partnership deals and of properties in areas where the economics have turned sour (vacancy rates have risen sharply). The limitations should have little impact on new construction and market rents, however. Reduced depreciation write-offs, lower interest rates, and higher rents all act to lower expected passive losses. Moreover, financing can be restructured to include equity-kickers or less debt generally at little loss of value.

Homeownership Rates of Married Couples: An Econometric Investigation

Ownership patterns for young (under 45) married couples are striking in two respects. First, ownership rates rise dramatically with age: couples 35- 44 consistently have ownership rates nearly 50 percentage points higher than couples under 25. Second, half of the sharp ownership gains of young married couples in the 1970s were reversed in the first half of the 1980s. These patterns do not hold either for single or other households or for married couples over 44. To increase understanding of this variability by age and over time, we analyze the tenure behavior of young married couples using aggregate income/age-class data from the 1973-83 Annual (American) Housing Surveys (AHS). The income of a household affects its tenure choice both directly (the taste for ownership rises with income) and indirectly (the cost of owning declines as income rises owing to the greater value of investment in a nontaxed asset for investors in higher tax brackets). Age affects tenure choice because older households have higher incomes, are less mobile (annual-equivalent transactions costs are lower), have more wealth (portfolio diversification for owner- occupiers is easier), and have more certain income (and are thus more willing to commit to ownership). Price and income elasticities for tenure choice are computed, the rise in ownership rates between 1973 and 1979 and the subsequent decline are interpreted, and an impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 is predicted.

Endogenous Mortgage Choice, Borrowing Constraints and the Tenure Decision

Earlier research has shown that lender income and wealth constraint ratios discourage homeownership. This empirical research has been based on home purchasers using an 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) fixed-rate conventional loan. Employing the same assumption, we find that the constraints lowered the ownership rate of our 1919 young home purchasers by about 20 percentage points. However, households are not restricted to putting 20 percent down and choosing a fixed- rate loan. When we allow households to select the optimal LTV and mortgage type (adjustable or fixed-rate with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or conventional insurance), the percentage of our sample that is credit constrained declines from 71 to 49. Moreover, the measured impact on the homeownership rate of the constraints falls to only 4 percentage points. Further, FHA loans are estimated to increase homeownership by only 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

Understanding the Real Estate Provisions of Tax Reform: Motivation and Impact

Capital investment tax provisions have been changed numerous times in the last decade, with depreciation tax lives shortened in 1981 and lengthened ever since and capital gains taxation reduced in 1978 and 1981 and now increased. The first part of this paper analyzes these changes and attributes a large part of them, including the 1986 Tax Act, to changes in inflation: tax depreciation schedules and capital gains taxation that look reasonable when the tax depreciation base is being eroded at ten percent a year and an overwhelming share of capital gains is pure inflation take on a different appearance when inflation is only four percent. The remainder of the paper critiques the typical project model used to compute impacts of tax changes on real estate and report simulation results using a modified model.

Expected Home Ownership and Real Wealth Accumulation of Youth

This paper describes the real wealth accumulation of American youth and relates this behavior to variations in real constant-quality house prices in their localities of residence. We argue that increases in the real constant-quality house price have two offsetting effects on wealth. First, the greater the local constant-quality price of housing, the greater the wealth needed to meet the lender imposed down payment constraint if housing demand is price inelastic. However, increased real constant-quality house price reduces the likelihood of home ownership and thus the desire the accumulate wealth needed for a down payment. Using a panel data set for youth age 20-33 for the years 1985 through 1990 we find that the combined direct and indirect impact of variations in real constant-quality house price on wealth is modest for changes near the average real house price, but youths' wealth declines substantially in areas with high real house price.

Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics

We explore the dynamics of real house prices by estimating serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979-1995. The serial correlation and reversion parameters are then shown to vary cross sectionally with city size, real income growth, population growth, and real construction costs. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real income, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster-growing cities with lower construction costs. Empirically, substantial overshooting of prices can occur in high real construction cost areas, which have high serial correlation and low mean reversion, such as the coastal cities of Boston, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego.

Indexing farmers\u27 seed lots for seedborne organisms and response to seed disinfectants

The determination of purity and viability of seeds has long been the major function of seed laboratories in the United States and other countries. Certain standard techniques have been developed on which rules and recommended procedures for seed analysis have been based. Until recently, as pointed out by the senior author (14, 15,) scant consideration has been given to the importance and significance of organisms carried in or on seeds, although Munn (11) as early as 1919 called the attention of seed analysts to their responsibility concerning the pathological condition of seeds. Since 1930 the large number of samples of field crop seeds received annually by the seed laboratory at Iowa State College has afforded an unusual opportunity to utilize certain phytopathological techniques in the determination of seeding value

Spectral Characteristics of the 1960 Tsunami at Crescent City, CA

Spectral characteristics of sea level fluctuations during the May 1960 Chilean Earthquake tsunami are investigated using digitized strip chart recordings from two docks within Crescent City Harbor. Peaks in sea level spectra at the two docks near 10-3 Hz and near 2.1 x10-3 Hz correspond to the two lowest frequency harbor modes, occurring above the frequency band most strongly excited by the tsunami. Tidal modulation of harbor spectral structure at very short periods is observed. Theoretical estimates of shelf edge wave resonant modes fall within the frequency band strongly excited by the tsunami, in contrast to modeled edge waves from a seismic event near Cape Mendocino that show no evidence of the reflection necessary for a strong shelf resonance. This suggests that heightened susceptibility of sea level (but not necessarily currents) at Crescent City to tsunami is not due primarily to either harbor or shelf resonances