El problema de la crisis energetica en el Peru: contratos petroleros, precios de combustibles y otros temas afines

This article has the dual purpose of explaining the nature of the energy crisis in Peru and of contributing towards placing the actual debate on this matter in perspective. To that effect, the author proposes the use of three basic principies in the fleld of energy economics which, according to his judgment, are essential both for the study of the problem as well as for establishing rational criterio for the decision making process. In the light of such principies, the problem-crisis of oil reserves is examined and the succesive stages needed to reach a solution are analyzed. So, answers are sought for questions such as: should domestic production be geared to domestic energy demand or to the needs to generate foreign exchange?, what are the ways and conditions that should norm the process of oil extraction, i.e., how should the revenues generated by the production of oil be distributed between the State and foreign capital? Lastly, the author comments on the use of diesel in the generation of hydrotermal electricity and calis for its replacement with more abundant and less expensive materials such as heavy oil or coal.​El presente artículo tiene como propósito dilucidar la naturaleza de la crisis energética en el Perú y contribuir a ordenar los términos del debate actual sobre dicha materia. Pora ello, el autor propone el empleo de tres principios básicos de la economía de la energía, que a su juicio, resultan esenciales, tanto para el estudio del problema como para el establecimiento de criterios racionales en el proceso de toma de decisiones. A la luz de tales principios, se examinan el problema-crisis de las reservas petroleras y las etapas por las que debe pasar su solución. Así, se trata de dar respuesta a interrogantes tales como: ¿se debe producir para cubrir la demanda interna de energía o para generar divisas? ¿con qué métodos y bajo qué condiciones se debe realizar la extracción de petróleo, es decir, cómo debe distribuirse la renta petrolera entre el Estado y el capital extranjero? Finalmente, el autor discute el esquema de desarrollo hidro-térmico para generar electricidad basado en la utilización del diesel, proponiendo su reemplazo por recursos más baratos y abundantes como el residual o carbón

Analytic results and weighted Monte Carlo simulations for CDO pricing

We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of (typically about 100) assets, Monte Carlo simulations are often the only feasible approach to pricing. Variance reduction techniques are therefore of great importance. This paper presents an exact analytic solution using Laplace-transform and MC importance sampling results for an easily tractable intensity-based model of the CDO, namely the compound Poissonian. Furthermore analytic formulae are derived for the reweighting efficiency. The computational gain is appealing, nevertheless, even in this basic scheme, a phase transition can be found, rendering some parameter regimes out of reach. A model-independent transform approach is also presented for CDO pricing.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

A simple mean field model for social interactions: dynamics, fluctuations, criticality

We study the dynamics of a spin-flip model with a mean field interaction. The system is non reversible, spacially inhomogeneous, and it is designed to model social interactions. We obtain the limiting behavior of the empirical averages in the limit of infinitely many interacting individuals, and show that phase transition occurs. Then, after having obtained the dynamics of normal fluctuations around this limit, we analize long time fluctuations for critical values of the parameters. We show that random inhomogeneities produce critical fluctuations at a shorter time scale compared to the homogeneous system.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figure

Temperature Entrainment of Drosophila's Circadian Clock Involves the Gene nocte and Signaling from Peripheral Sensory Tissues to the Brain

Circadian clocks are synchronized by the natural day/night and temperature cycles. Our previous work demonstrated that synchronization by temperature is a tissue autonomous process, similar to synchronization by light. We show here that this is indeed the case, with the important exception of the brain. Using luciferase imaging we demonstrate that brain clock neurons depend on signals from peripheral tissues in order to be synchronized by temperature. Reducing the function of the gene nocte in chordotonal organs changes their structure and function and dramatically interferes with temperature synchronization of behavioral activity. Other mutants known to affect the function of these sensory organs also interfere with temperature synchronization, demonstrating the importance of nocte in this process and identifying the chordotonal organs as relevant sensory structures. Our work reveals surprising and important mechanistic differences between light- and temperature-synchronization and advances our understanding of how clock resetting is accomplished in nature

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Impact of time-dependent non-axisymmetric velocity perturbations on dynamo action of von-K\'arm\'an-like flows

We have performed numerical simulations of the kinematic induction equation in order to examine the dynamo efficiency of an axisymmetric von-K\'arm\'an-like flow subject to time-dependent non-axisymmetric velocity perturbations. The numerical model is based on the setup of the French Von-K\'arm\'an-Sodium dynamo (VKS) and on the flow measurements from a model water experiment conducted at the University of Navarra in Pamplona, Spain. Our simulations show that the interactions of azimuthally drifting flow perturbations with the fundamental drift of the magnetic eigenmode (caused by the inevitable equatorial symmetry breaking of the basic flow) essentially determine the temporal behavior of the dynamo state. We find two distinct regimes of dynamo action that depend on the (prescribed) drift frequency of an ($m=2$) vortex-like flow perturbation. For comparatively slowly drifting vortices we observe a narrow window with enhanced growth-rates and a drift of the magnetic eigenmode that is synchronized with the perturbation drift. The resonance-like enhancement of the growth-rates takes place when the vortex drift frequency roughly equals the drift frequency of the magnetic eigenmode in the unperturbed system. Outside of this small window, the field generation is hampered compared to the unperturbed case, and the field amplitude of the magnetic eigenmode is modulated with approximately twice the vortex drift frequency. The abrupt transition between the resonant regime and the modulated regime is identified as an spectral exceptional point where eigenvalues (growth-rates and frequencies) and eigenfunctions of two previously independent modes collapse.Comment: 14 pages, 14 Figures. Minor changes to match the published versio

Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia