On the observation, characterisation, and predictive GIS mapping of strong ground shaking for seismic zonation

Tragic earthquakes of the last decade in Mexico, Armenia, and the United States have re-emphasised the importance of local geologic site conditions in determining amounts of damage and consequent loss of life. Extensive data sets in the San Francisco Bay region on strong earthquake ground motions, the damage distributions from past earthquakes, and geologic materials provide the basis to quantify site condition effects for purposes of earthquake hazard mitigation. These observational data are reviewed and analysed to provide methodologies for the characterisation and predictive mapping of potential variations in strong ground shaking for seismic zonation. The methodologies are based on existing geologic maps. They provide a method for seismic zonation applicable to many urbanised seismic regions of the world.</jats:p

An exact anelastic model for the free-surface relfection of<i>P</i>and<i>S</i>-I waves

AbstractExact anelastic solutions incorporating inhomogeneous waves are used to model numerically S-I and P waves incident on the free surface of a low-loss anelastic half-space. Anelastic free-surface reflection coefficients are computed for the volumetric strain and displacement components of inhomogeneous wave fields. For the problem of an incident homogeneous S-I wave in Pierre shale, the largest strain and displacement amplitudes for the reflected P wave occur at angles of incidence for which the particle motion for the reflected inhomogeneous P wave is elliptical (minor/major axis = 0.6), the specific absorption (QP−1) is greater (300 per cent) and the velocity is less (25 per cent) than those for a corresponding homogeneous P wave, the direction of phase propagation is not parallel to the free surface, and the amplitude of the wave shows a significant increase with depth (6 per cent in one wavelength). Energy reflection coefficients computed for this low-loss anelastic model show that energy flow due to interaction of the incident and reflected waves reach maxima (30 per cent of the incident energy) near large but nongrazing angles of incidence. For the problem of an incident homogeneous P wave in Pierre shale, the inhomogeneity of the reflected S wave is shown not to contribute to significant variations in wave field characteristics over those that would be expected for a homogeneous wave.</jats:p

A method for estimating the uncertainty of seismic velocities measured by refraction techniques

ABSTRACT Time residuals from 75-km segments of 18 crustal seismic-refraction profiles in the Basin and Range province are used to investigate the validity of the linear-regression model and to make large sample estimates of the variance in the travel time distributions. A formula for unbiased estimates of velocity uncertainty is derived, assuming a linear trend with distance for the variances of the travel-time distributions. If the recording units are symmetric about the center of the recording interval, this formula is equivalent to the one derived assuming the variances are equal. At the 95-per cent confidence level the chi-squared test implied 84 per cent of the time-residual samples were inconsistent with the hypothesis that their parent populations had Gaussian distributions. If the number of recording locations expceeds 8, confidence limits computed without the Gaussian assumption suggest the departures from normality are not significant for velocity uncertainty estimates. The large sample estimates of the time-residual populations may be applicable to other areas. This evidence motivated the development of a method, requiring very little numerical calculation, for estimating uncertainties in velocities. The method requires, in addition to the large sample estimates of the travel time variances, information on the quality of the data, the location of the recording interval, and the number of recording units. The method is useful for the design of new experiments and independent estimates of uncertainty reported in the literature.</jats:p