7 research outputs found
Взаимозависимость между температурой воздуха и смертностью в Кишинёве
Project MGI-2318-CH-02, Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Nicolae Testemitsanu State Medical and Pharmaceutical University, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaThe paper presents results from the statistical description of total daily mortality dependence on ambient air temperature in the Chisinau
municipality. Total daily deaths, taken from death certificates, characterize mortality in the period of April 1 to September 30 for the years 2000-
2008. Mean (Tmean), maximal (Tmax) and minimal (Tmin) temperatures were used as independent variables. The extremely hot “warm season”
of 2007 was excluded from the study. Pertinent statistical procedures were used to describe the statistical dependencies. The thermal optimum
(minimal mortality temperature, MMT) was defined as a 2°C temperature band. It was shown that minimal daily mortality was observed at
Tmean about 220
C. In the first half of the period, each 1°C increase of Tmean is accompanied by a 1.43%-decrease in daily mortality. Analogous
analysis for Tmax and Tmin identified corresponding MMTs as 27-28°C and 17-18°C, and decreases in deaths as 1.41% and 1.47%, respectively.
In August-September, air temperature decrease determines, depending on the temperature variable used, between 19.3% and 23.9% of total
mortality, and each 1°C decrease of Tmean, Tmax and Tmin causes respectively 0.64%, 0.61% and 0.80% increase of mortality
В статье представленa статистическая зависимость ежедневной общей смертности от температуры атмосферного воздуха в Кишиневе.
Ежедневная общая смертность характеризует период с 1 апреля по 30 сентября 2000-2008 годов. В качестве независимых переменных
использованы средняя (Tmean), максимальная (Tmax) и минимальная (Tmin) температуры. Экстремально теплый период 2007 года
исключен из обработки. В работе использованы соответствующие целям методы статистической обработки. Определен термальный
оптимум, т.е. температура, при которой отмечается минимальная смертность (ТМС). Выявлено, что минимальная ежедневная
смертность (15,2 смертей) отмечается при Tmean равной 22°C. В первой половине теплого периода каждый градус увеличения
Tmean сопровождается снижением ежедневной смертности на 1,43%. Аналогичные расчеты для Tmax и Tmin идентифицировали
соответствующие значения ТМС равные 27-28°C и 17-18°C и снижение количества смертей на 1,41% и 1,47% на каждый градус
увеличения температуры. В августе-сентябре снижение температуры воздуха обусловливает, в зависимости от использованной
переменной, снижение общей смертности от 19,3 до 23,9%, а каждый градус снижения Tmean, Tmax и Tmin сопровождается 0,64%,
0,61% и 0,80% приростом суточной смертности, соответственно
Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)
Transboundary Collaborations to Enhance Wildfire Suppression in Protected Areas of the Black Sea Region
For the most effective and efficient management of certain natural resources (e.g. protected areas) and disasters (e.g.
wildfires) transboundary approaches are needed. In addition in the management of protected areas, the role of wildfire
should be incorporated, something that was ignored in the past and led to catastrophic wildfires. The Black Sea is a
region that wildfires in the protected areas are expected to increase. This has to do with the abandonment of rural areas
and the higher temperatures, especially during summer, due to climate change. Interesting is also the fact that some
countries of the region have extensive experience while other do not have neither the experience nor the necessary
infrastructures to face large wildfires. A transboundary collaboration would be very beneficial to the countries with
limited experiences and capacities to suppress wildfires. The objective of this study is to be proactive by developing
innovative tools to help suppress wildfires and enhancing the knowledge on wildfires and protected areas. The
innovative tools included 4 different research activities and products. Firstly, an online Digital Geodatabase for the six
pilot areas was developed. Next forest fire fuels and maps were developed while a forest fire behavior model was run to
create the overall fire risk maps for the pilot areas. To estimate water resources and watershed streamflows the
hydrologic model SWAT was validated and calibrated for the pilot areas. The final activities included a multi-criteria
decision analysis to select the optimal location of the water reservoirs and the use of spatial analyst to provide the
optimal routes to reach reservoirs by the fire vehicles. To enhance the responsible agency personnel along with
stakeholders knowledge of the region, a Neighborhood Network with regular quarterly meetings was established.
Participants for all six project countries were present in the meetings. Overall, new tool that will enhance wildfire
suppression in protected area were developed while the awareness of wildfire danger and the importance of protected
areas increased