Modeling the long term dynamics of pre-vaccination pertussis

The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal patterns have not been clearly identified. In particular, different models of immunity waning and degree of protection applied to disease and vaccine induced immunity have been debated in the literature on pertussis. Here we study the effect of disease acquired immunity on the long term patterns of pertussis prevalence. We compare five minimal models, all of which are stochastic, seasonally forced, well-mixed models of infection based on susceptible-infective-recovered dynamics in a closed population. These models reflect different assumptions about the immune response of naive hosts, namely total permanent immunity, immunity waning, immunity waning together with immunity boosting, reinfection of recovered, and repeat infection after partial immunity waning. The power spectra of the output prevalence time series characterize the long term dynamics of the models. For epidemiological parameters consistent with published data for pertussis, the power spectra show quantitative and even qualitative differences that can be used to test their assumptions by comparison with ensembles of several decades long pre-vaccination data records. We illustrate this strategy on two publicly available historical data sets.Comment: paper (31 pages, 11 figures, 1 table) and supplementary material (19 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

Principles of appropriate antibiotic use for treatment of uncomplicated acute bronchitis: background.

The following principles of appropriate antibiotic use for adults with acute bronchitis apply to immunocompetent adults without complicating comorbid conditions, such as chronic lung or heart disease. The evaluation of adults with an acute cough illness or a presumptive diagnosis of uncomplicated acute bronchitis should focus on ruling out serious illness, particularly pneumonia. In healthy, nonelderly adults, pneumonia is uncommon in the absence of vital sign abnormalities or asymmetrical lung sounds, and chest radiography is usually not indicated. In patients with cough lasting 3 weeks or longer, chest radiography may be warranted in the absence of other known causes. Routine antibiotic treatment of uncomplicated acute bronchitis is not recommended, regardless of duration of cough. If pertussis infection is suspected (an unusual circumstance), a diagnostic test should be performed and antimicrobial therapy initiated. Patient satisfaction with care for acute bronchitis depends most on physician--patient communication rather than on antibiotic treatment

An Ounce of Prevention is a Ton of Work: Mass Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Anthrax, New York City, 2001

Protocols for mass antibiotic prophylaxis against anthrax were under development in New York City beginning in early 1999. This groundwork allowed the city’s Department of Health to rapidly respond in 2001 to six situations in which cases were identified or anthrax spores were found. The key aspects of planning and lessons learned from each of these mass prophylaxis operations are reviewed. Antibiotic distribution was facilitated by limiting medical histories to issues relevant to prescribing prophylactic antibiotic therapy, formatting medical records to facilitate rapid decision making, and separating each component activity into discrete work stations. Successful implementation of mass prophylaxis operations was characterized by clarity of mission and eligibility criteria, well-defined lines of authority and responsibilities, effective communication, collaboration among city agencies (including law enforcement), and coordination of staffing and supplies. This model can be adapted for future planning needs including possible attacks with other bioterrorism agents, such as smallpox

Challenges in defining an optimal approach to formula-based allocations of public health funds in the United States

BACKGROUND: Controversy and debate can arise whenever public health agencies determine how program funds should be allocated among constituent jurisdictions. Two common strategies for making such allocations are expert review of competitive applications and the use of funding formulas. Despite widespread use of funding formulas by public health agencies in the United States, formula allocation strategies in public health have been subject to relatively little formal scrutiny, with the notable exception of the attention focused on formula funding of HIV care programs. To inform debates and deliberations in the selection of a formula-based approach, we summarize key challenges to formula-based funding, based on prior reviews of federal programs in the United States. DISCUSSION: The primary challenge lies in identifying data sources and formula calculation methods that both reflect and serve program objectives, with or without adjustments for variations in the cost of delivering services, the availability of local resources, capacity, or performance. Simplicity and transparency are major advantages of formula-based allocations, but these advantages can be offset if formula-based allocations are perceived to under- or over-fund some jurisdictions, which may result from how guaranteed minimum funding levels are set or from "hold-harmless" provisions intended to blunt the effects of changes in formula design or random variations in source data. While fairness is considered an advantage of formula-based allocations, the design of a formula may implicitly reflect unquestioned values concerning equity versus equivalence in setting funding policies. Whether or how past or projected trends are taken into account can also have substantial impacts on allocations. SUMMARY: Insufficient attention has been focused on how the approach to designing funding formulas in public health should differ for treatment or service versus prevention programs. Further evaluations of formula-based versus competitive allocation methods are needed to promote the optimal use of public health funds. In the meantime, those who use formula-based strategies to allocate funds should be familiar with the nuances of this approach

A theory-based approach to understanding condom errors and problems reported by men attending an STI clinic

The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2008 Springer VerlagWe employed the information–motivation–behavioral skills (IMB) model to guide an investigation of correlates for correct condom use among 278 adult (18–35 years old) male clients attending a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic. An anonymous questionnaire aided by a CD-recording of the questions was administered. Linear Structural Relations Program was used to conduct path analyses of the hypothesized IMB model. Parameter estimates showed that while information did not directly affect behavioral skills, it did have a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Motivation had a significant direct (positive) effect on behavioral skills and a significant indirect (positive) effect on condom use errors through behavioral skills. Behavioral skills had a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Among men attending a public STI clinic, these findings suggest brief, clinic-based, safer sex programs for men who have sex with women should incorporate activities to convey correct condom use information, instill motivation to use condoms correctly, and directly enhance men’s behavioral skills for correct use of condoms

Prevalence of multiple chronic conditions in the United States' Medicare population

In 2006, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which administers the Medicare program in the United States, launched the Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW). The CCW contains all Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) institutional and non-institutional claims, nursing home and home health assessment data, and enrollment/eligibility information from January 1, 1999 forward for a random 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries (and 100% of the Medicare population from 2000 forward). Twenty-one predefined chronic condition indicator variables are coded within the CCW, to facilitate research on chronic conditions

Lessons for Medicare Part D in the hemodialysis community

BACKGROUND: Medicare beneficiaries without prescription drug coverage consistently fill fewer prescriptions than beneficiaries with some form of drug coverage due to cost. ESRD patients, who are disproportionately poor and typically use multiple oral medications, would likely benefit substantially from any form of prescription drug coverage. Because most hemodialysis patients are Medicare-eligible, they as well as their providers would be expected to be well informed of changes in Medicare prescription drug coverage. By examining the level of understanding and use of the temporary Medicare Prescription Drug Discount Card Program in the hemodialysis population, we can gain a better understanding of the potential long-term utilization for Medicare Part D. METHODS: We surveyed English-speaking adult hemodialysis patients with Medicare coverage from two urban hemodialysis centers affiliated with the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) during July and August 2005 (n = 70). We also surveyed University- and community-based nephrologists and non-physician dialysis health care professionals over the same time frame (n = 70). RESULTS: Fifty-nine percent of patients received prescription drug coverage through Medi-Cal, 20% through another insurance program, and 21% had no prescription drug coverage. Forty percent of patients with no prescription drug coverage reported "sometimes" or "rarely" being able to obtain medications vs. 22% of patients with some form of drug coverage. None of the patients surveyed actually had a Medicare-approved prescription drug card, and of those who intended to apply, only 10% reported knowing how to do so. Only 11% health care professionals knew the eligibility requirements of the drug discount cards. CONCLUSION: Despite a significant need, hemodialysis patients and providers were poorly educated about the Medicare Prescription Drug Discount Cards. This has broad implications for the dissemination of information about Medicare Part D

National issues in technology transfer

A well-accepted definition of technology transfer is “the movement of know how, technique, and technology across organizational boundaries.” If you accept this definition, then what is interesting about it is that nobody knows how to do it very well… as a nation, that is. Different nations do different pieces of it better than others. You find the Japanese running around looking at us to see how to do technology transfers from universities to industry, which they do badly. We run around looking at the Japanese to find out how to transfer technology from corporate R&D to manufacturing. And the Europeans are running around looking at both of us

West Nile Virus Epidemic, Northeast Ohio, 2002

Serum samples and sociodemographic data were obtained from 1,209 Ohio residents. West Nile virus immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG antibodies were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and confirmed. Children were 4.5 times more likely to become infected yet 110× less likely to have neuroinvasive disease develop

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and All-Cause Mortality during Tuberculosis Treatment in California.

BackgroundAmbient air pollution and tuberculosis (TB) have an impact on public health worldwide, yet associations between the two remain uncertain.ObjectiveWe determined the impact of residential traffic on mortality during treatment of active TB.MethodsFrom 2000-2012, we enrolled 32,875 patients in California with active TB and followed them throughout treatment. We obtained patient data from the California Tuberculosis Registry and calculated traffic volumes and traffic densities in 100- to 400-m radius buffers around residential addresses. We used Cox models to determine mortality hazard ratios, controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical potential confounders. We categorized traffic exposures as quintiles and determined trends using Wald tests.ResultsParticipants contributed 22,576 person-years at risk. There were 2,305 deaths during treatment for a crude mortality rate of 1,021 deaths per 10,000 person-years. Traffic volumes and traffic densities in all buffers around patient residences were associated with increased mortality during TB treatment, although the findings were not statistically significant in all buffers. As the buffer size decreased, fifth-quintile mortality hazards increased, and trends across quintiles of traffic exposure became more statistically significant. Increasing quintiles of nearest-road traffic volumes in the 100-m buffer were associated with 3%, 14%, 19%, and 28% increased risk of death during TB treatment [first quintile, referent; second quintile hazard ratio (HR)=1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 1.25]; third quintile HR=1.14 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.37); fourth quintile HR=1.19 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.43); fifth quintile HR=1.28 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.53), respectively; p-trend=0.002].ConclusionsResidential proximity to road traffic volumes and traffic density were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients undergoing treatment for active tuberculosis even after adjusting for multiple demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors, suggesting that TB patients are susceptible to the adverse health effects of traffic-related air pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1699