Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis

This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data and criteria used to evaluate the predictive power of the yield spread. The third section examines whether yield spreads have reliably forecast real economic activity in the 11 countries, using several measures of real economic activity and alternative forecast horizons. The empirical results indicate the yield spread is a statistically and economically significant predictor of real economic activity in several industrial countries besides the United States. In addition, the yield spread forecasting model generally outperforms two alternative forecasting models in predicting future real GDP growth.Economic conditions - United States ; Interest rates ; Forecasting ; Gross domestic product

A Fatal Complication Following Hybrid Total Arch Replacement with Supra-aortic Artery Translocation and Endovascular Stenting

This case highlights the successful management of acute Type B dissection complicated by visceral malperfusion. Even though the procedure of hybrid supra-aortic translocation and endovascular stenting corrected the malperfusion, it is important for vigilant CT scan surveillance for the post operative complications which can occur with this procedure

Towards the implementation of an ion-exchange system for recovery of fluoride commodity chemicals. Kinetic and dynamic studies

Spent potlining (SPL), a hazardous waste product from primary aluminium production, presents an important opportunity to recycle fluoride and conserve global fluorspar reserves. A novel strategy for treatment of the waste requires a selective fluoride-removal step from aqueous leachate. This has been demonstrated, using a Lanthanum-loaded chelating resin, in a series of kinetic and dynamic studies, with a view to industrial implementation. Kinetics could be described by the pseudo second-order model and uptake from SPL leachate was considerably higher than from equivalent NaF solutions, although observed rate constants were an order of magnitude less. Uptake of coexisting species and activation energy calculations indicated that a novel complexation interaction between La centres and aqueous aluminium hydroxyfluorides dominated the uptake process. The resin operated efficiently in column studies, with a dynamic fluoride uptake capacity of 66.7 mg g-1, calculated by the Dose-Response model, which produced the best fit to the data. The attained elution profile suggested that fluoride recovery by cryolite precipitation would be feasible, which could be recycled back into primary aluminium production or exploited as a commodity. The resin was found to have high durability in performance studies over repeated batch treatments

Human epicardial adipose tissue expresses a pathogenic profile of adipocytokines in patients with cardiovascular disease

Introduction: Inflammation contributes to cardiovascular disease and is exacerbated with increased adiposity, particularly omental adiposity; however, the role of epicardial fat is poorly understood. Methods: For these studies the expression of inflammatory markers was assessed in epicardial fat biopsies from coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients using quantitative RT-PCR. Further, the effects of chronic medications, including statins, as well as peri-operative glucose, insulin and potassium infusion, on gene expression were also assessed. Circulating resistin, CRP, adiponectin and leptin levels were determined to assess inflammation. Results: The expression of adiponectin, resistin and other adipocytokine mRNAs were comparable to that in omental fat. Epicardial CD45 expression was significantly higher than control depots (p < 0.01) indicating significant infiltration of macrophages. Statin treated patients showed significantly lower epicardial expression of IL-6 mRNA, in comparison with the control abdominal depots (p < 0.001). The serum profile of CABG patients showed significantly higher levels of both CRP (control: 1.28 ± 1.57 μg/mL vs CABG: 9.11 ± 15.7 μg/mL; p < 0.001) and resistin (control: 10.53 ± 0.81 ng/mL vs CABG: 16.8 ± 1.69 ng/mL; p < 0.01) and significantly lower levels of adiponectin (control: 29.1 ± 14.8 μg/mL vs CABG: 11.9 ± 6.0 μg/mL; p < 0.05) when compared to BMI matched controls. Conclusion: Epicardial and omental fat exhibit a broadly comparable pathogenic mRNA profile, this may arise in part from macrophage infiltration into the epicardial fat. This study highlights that chronic inflammation occurs locally as well as systemically potentially contributing further to the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease

Getting shot of elves: healing, witchcraft and fairies in the Scottish witchcraft trials

This paper re-examines the evidence of the Scottish witchcraft trials for beliefs associated by scholars with "elf-shot." Some supposed evidence for elf-shot is dismissed, but other material illuminates the interplay between illness, healing and fairy-lore in early modern Scotland, and the relationship of these beliefs to witchcraft itself