Political participation: national election study

"The chapter gives an overview of recent developments within participation and electoral research, and discusses the current state of affairs with regard to data provision and access. It concludes with several recommendations: (a) to tag a small number of key political variables as constant elements of the future question programmes of both the ALLBUS and the GSOEP, thereby creating substantial amounts of synergy at little marginal cost; (b) to establish a National Election Study in Germany by providing the current GLES project (which is funded by the DFG to study the 2009, 2013 and 2017 national elections) with a constant logistic and methodological support infrastructure by GESIS, and on the long run by providing a regular follow-up study to this project with a stable basis of reliable public funding and a firm institutional embedding, preferably by including it into the remit of GESIS; (c) to adapt the data services of the statistical offices in several respects more closely to the data requirements of participation and electoral research; (d) to establish a formal obligation for public agencies to submit survey data collected under their auspices in due time to the public domain for purposes of secondary analysis." (author's abstract

Mass communication, personal communication and vote choice: the filter hypothesis of media influence in comparative perspective

In den letzten Jahren sind sowohl die Massenmedien als auch die persönliche Kommunikation als Informationsquellen des politischen Wahlverhaltens verstärkt diskutiert worden. Über einen genaueren Zusammenhang liegen jedoch nur unvollständig empirische Untersuchungen vor. Von Katz und Lazarsfeld ist 1955 die 'Filter-Hypothese' über einen zweistufigen Kommunikationsfluß aufgestellt worden: Danach wirken die Massenmedien nicht unmittelbar auf die Einstellungen ihrer Rezipienten ein, sondern nur indirekt über 'Meinungsführer', die als Mittler zu und in informellen Gruppierungen auftreten. Das Arbeitspapier überprüft die Hypothese erneut an Hand von Wahlergebnissen aus Großbritannien, Spanien, den USA und der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Die Daten bestätigen im wesentlichen die Hypothese, wenn die Eigenheiten der jeweiligen Parteiensysteme verstärkt berücksichtigt werden. (ICAÜbers)'In recent years, both mass communication and personal communication have attracted increased interest as sources of persuasive information which influences individual voting decisions. However, few efforts have so far been undertaken to investigate how mass communication and personal communication interact with regard to electoral decision-making. Katz/ Lazarsfeld's (1955) 'filter hypothesis' maintains that personal communication mediates the influence of mass communication an individual voters, reinforcing or blocking the impact of media information, depending an the evaluative implications of that information and an the political structure of voters' discussant networks. The paper examines this hypothesis, using comparable national election-survey data from Britain, Spain, the United States and West Germany. Based an detailled information about structures and political content of voters' discussant networks, about their media exposure, and about the content of the media used, the filter hypothesis is empirically corroborated. In addition, qualifications pertaining to the importance of differing formats of party systems are made.' (author's abstract)

Political Participation / National Election Study

The chapter gives an overview of recent developments within participation and electoral research, and discusses the current state of affairs with regard to data provision and access. It concludes with several recommendations: (a) to tag a small number of key political variables as constant elements of the future question programmes of both the ALLBUS and the GSOEP, thereby creating substantial amounts of synergy at little marginal cost; (b) to establish a National Election Study in Germany by providing the current GLES project (which is funded by the DFG to study the 2009, 2013 and 2017 national elections) with a constant logistic and methodological support infrastructure by GESIS, and on the long run by providing a regular follow-up study to this project with a stable basis of reliable public funding and a firm institutional embedding, preferably by including it into the remit of GESIS; (c) to adapt the data services of the statistical offices in several respects more closely to the data requirements of participation and electoral research; (d) to establish a formal obligation for public agencies to submit survey data collected under their auspices in due time to the public domain for purposes of secondary analysis.Political participation, political behaviour, elections, electoral behaviour, voting

Der Rolling Cross-Section Survey - ein Instrument zur Analyse dynamischer Prozesse der Einstellungsentwicklung: Bericht zur ersten deutschen RCS-Studie anlässlich der Bundestagswahl 2005

"Der Beitrag stellt eine neue, Panel-Befragungen komplementäre Methode zur Analyse dynamischer Prozesse der Meinungskristallisation und des Meinungswandels vor: den Rolling Cross-Section Survey. Die Grundidee des RCS-Designs besteht darin, die Durchführung einer auf einer Zufallsstichprobe basierenden Querschnittsbefragung in strikt kontrollierter Weise so über einen vorab definierten Zeitraum zu spreizen, dass die Befragten jedes einzelnen Tages jeweils in sich eine Zufallsstichprobe aus der Grundgesamtheit konstituieren. Solche Umfragen ermöglichen in höchst flexibler Weise Analysen von dynamischen Phänomenen der öffentlichen Meinung. Der Beitrag erörtert detailliert die idealtypischen Eigenschaften von RCS-Studien und diskutiert Probleme ihrer praktischen Umsetzung am Beispiel der ersten deutschen RCS-Studie, die während des Wahlkampfes zur Bundestagswahl 2005 realisiert wurde. Er schließt mit einigen exemplarischen Analysen, welche Rückschlüsse auf die Datenqualität ermöglichen und die besonderen Vorzüge von RCS-Daten verdeutlichen." (Autorenreferat)"The present paper describes a new methodological approach for analysing dynamic processes of opinion crystallization and change: the Rolling Cross-Section Survey. The basic idea of the RCS design is to spread a regular cross-section survey that is based on a random sample over an a priori defined period of time in such a way that not only the entire sample, but also the respondents interviewed on any given day of the field period constitute random samples. Data generated from RCS surveys give researchers unique opportunities to study dynamic phenomena of public opinion in highly flexible ways. Following an overview of the ideal-typical features of the RCS design, the paper discusses problems of implementing these principles in practical fieldwork, taking the example of the first German RCS study that was conducted during the campaign of the German National Parliamentary Election 2005. The paper closes with exemplary analyses that indicate the quality of these data and illustrate their usefulness." (author's abstract

The changing German voter

This concluding chapter discusses changing German voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. It summarizes the book’s findings on three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were electoral attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? Discussing the consequences of these developments the chapter finds that the ideological and affective polarization of the party system has increased, leading to a dualistic structure that pits the right-wing populist AfD against all other parties. It also shows how the formation of governments under the German parliamentary system of governance gets increasingly difficult. The chapter closes with speculations about the prospects of electoral politics in Germany

A new era of electoral instability

Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly. After a long period of stability, elections have dramatically altered their character - at first rather gradually, but during the past decade at an accelerated speed. Voters' decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. The long-term process of party system fragmentation that had already been going on for a while intensified sharply. A particularly conspicuous outcome of this period of turbulent electoral politics was the termination of Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. The chapter traces this development in detail. It identifies three distinctive phases of party system development: 1949 to 1976, 1980 to 2005, and 2009 to 2017. The topoi of realignment and dealignment are evoked as key concepts for interpreting the trends that have become increasingly visible since the second phase

A Two-Stage Theory of Discussant Influence on Vote Choice in Multiparty Systems

This article addresses two aspects of social network influence on voters’ electoral choices that are not well understood: the role of party systems as institutional contexts and the relationship between social pressure and information sharing as mechanisms of influence. It argues that in the cleavage-based multiparty systems of Western Europe, discussant influence at elections occurs in two stages. First, discussants place social pressure on voters to opt for parties from the same ideological camp. Secondly, by providing information, discussants influence which parties voters eventually choose out of these restricted ‘consideration sets’. The study tests these assumptions using a panel survey conducted at the 2009 German federal election. The first proposition is clearly confirmed, and the evidence supports the second proposition, although less unequivocally.</jats:p