Estimating individual treatment effects from responses and a predictive biomarker in a parallel group RCT

When being interested in administering the best of two treatments to an individual patient i, it is necessary to know the individual treatment effects (ITEs) of the considered subjects and the correlation between the possible responses (PRs) for two treatments. When data are generated in a parallel–group design RCT, it is not possible to determine the ITE for a single subject since we only observe two samples from the marginal distributions of these PRs and not the corresponding joint distribution due to the ’Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference’ [Holland, 1986, p. 947]. In this article, we present a counterfactual approach for estimating the joint distribution of two normally distributed responses to two treatments. This joint distribution can be estimated by assuming a normal joint distribution for the PRs and by using a normally distributed baseline biomarker which is defined to be functionally related to the sum of the ITE components. Such a functional relationship is plausible since a biomarker and the sum encode for the same information in a RCT, namely the variation between subjects. As a result of the interpretation of the biomarker as a proxy for the sum of ITE components, the estimation of the joint distribution is subjected to some constraints. These constraints can be framed in the context of linear regressions with regard to the proportions of variances in the responses explained and with regard to the residual variation. As a consequence, a new light is thrown on the presence of treatment–biomarker interactions. We applied our approach to a classical medical data example on exercise and heart rate

Impact of the indexed effective orifice area on mid-term cardiac-related mortality after aortic valve replacement

Background There has been ongoing controversy as to whether prosthesis-patient mismatch (PPM, defined as indexed effective orifice area (EOAI) <0.85 m(2)/cm(2)) influences mortality after aortic valve replacement (AVR). In most studies, PPM is anticipated by reference tables based on mean EOAs as opposed to individual assessment. These reference values may not reflect the actual in vivo EOAI and hence, the presence or absence of PPM may be based on false assumptions. Objective To assess the impact of small prosthesis EOA on survival after aortic valve replacement AVR. Methods 645 patients had undergone an AVR between 2000 and 2007 entered the study. All patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography for determination of the actual EOAI within 6 months postoperatively. In order to predict time from surgery to death a proportional hazards model for competing risks (cardiac death vs death from other causes) was used. EOAI was entered as a continuous variable. Results PPM occurred in 40% of the patients. After a median follow-up of 2.35 years, 92.1% of the patients were alive. The final Cox regression model showed a significantly increased risk for cardiac death among patients with a smaller EOAI (HR=0.32, p=0.022). The effect of EOAI on the 2-5 year mortality risk was demonstrated by risk plots. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies these EOAI values were obtained through postoperative echocardiography, substantially improving the accuracy of measurement, and the EOAI was modelled as a continuous variable. There was a significantly improved survival for larger EOAIs following AVR. Strategies to avoid PPM should become paramount during AVR

MMP-1 serum levels predict coronary atherosclerosis in humans

<p/> <p>Background</p> <p>Myocardial infarction results as a consequence of atherosclerotic plaque rupture, with plaque stability largely depending on the lesion forming extracellular matrix components. Lipid enriched non-calcified lesions are considered more instable and rupture prone than calcified lesions. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are extracellular matrix degrading enzymes with plaque destabilisating characteristics which have been implicated in atherogenesis. We therefore hypothesised MMP-1 and MMP-9 serum levels to be associated with non-calcified lesions as determined by CT-angiography in patients with coronary artery disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>260 patients with typical or atypical chest pain underwent dual-source multi-slice CT-angiography (0.6-mm collimation, 330-ms gantry rotation time) to exclude coronary artery stenosis. Atherosclerotic plaques were classified as calcified, mixed or non-calcified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In multivariable regession analysis, MMP-1 serum levels were associated with total plaque burden (OR: 1.37 (CI: 1.02-1.85); p < 0.05) in a model adjusted for age, sex, BMI, classical cardiovascular risk factors, hsCRP, adiponectin, pericardial fat volume and medication. Specification of plaque morphology revealed significant association of MMP-1 serum levels with non-calcified plaques (OR: 1.16 (CI: 1.0-1.34); p = 0.05) and calcified plaques (OR: 1.22 (CI: 1,03-1.45); p < 0.05) while association with mixed plaques was lost in the fully adjusted model. No associations were found between MMP9 serum levels and total plaque burden or plaque morphology.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MMP-1 serum levels are associated with total plaque burden but do not allow a specification of plaque morphology.</p

The NOD2 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms rs2066843 and rs2076756 Are Novel and Common Crohn's Disease Susceptibility Gene Variants

Background: The aims were to analyze two novel NOD2 variants (rs2066843 and rs2076756) in a large cohort of patients with inflammatory bowel disease and to elucidate phenotypic consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings: Genomic DNA from 2700 Caucasians including 812 patients with Crohn's disease (CD), 442 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 1446 healthy controls was analyzed for the NOD2 SNPs rs2066843 and rs2076756 and the three main CD-associated NOD2 variants p.Arg702Trp (rs2066844), p.Gly908Arg (rs2066847), and p.Leu1007fsX1008 (rs2066847). Haplotype and genotype-phenotype analyses were performed. The SNPs rs2066843 (p = 3.01×10−5, OR 1.48, [95% CI 1.23-1.78]) and rs2076756 (p = 4.01×10−6; OR 1.54, [95% CI 1.28-1.86]) were significantly associated with CD but not with UC susceptibility. Haplotype analysis revealed a number of significant associations with CD susceptibility with omnibus p values 0.9). However, in CD, SNPs rs2066843 and rs2076756 were more frequently observed than the other three common NOD2 mutations (minor allele frequencies for rs2066843 and rs2076756: 0.390 and 0.380, respectively). In CD patients homozygous for these novel NOD2 variants, genotype-phenotype analysis revealed higher rates of a penetrating phenotype (rs2076756: p = 0.015) and fistulas (rs2076756: p = 0.015) and significant associations with CD-related surgery (rs2076756: p = 0.003; rs2066843: p = 0.015). However, in multivariate analysis only disease localization (p<2×10−16) and behaviour (p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the need for surgery. Conclusion/Significance: The NOD2 variants rs2066843 and rs2076756 are novel and common CD susceptibility gene variants

pERK, pAKT and p53 as tissue biomarkers in erlotinib-treated patients with advanced pancreatic cancer: a translational subgroup analysis from AIO-PK0104

Background: The role of pERK, pAKT and p53 as biomarkers in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer has not yet been defined. Methods: Within the phase III study AIO-PK0104 281 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer received an erlotinib-based 1st-line regimen. Archival tissue from 153 patients was available for central immunohistochemistry staining for pERK, pAKT and p53. Within a subgroup analysis, biomarker data were correlated with efficacy endpoints and skin rash using a Cox regression model. Results: Fifty-five out of 153 patients were classified as pERK(low) and 98 patients as pERK(high); median overall survival (OS) was 6.2 months and 5.7 months, respectively (HR 1.29, p = 0.16). When analysing pERK as continuous variable, the pERK score was significantly associated with OS (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.0-1.12, p = 0.05). Twenty-one of 35 patients were pAKT(low) and 14/35 pAKT(high) with a corresponding median OS of 6.4 months and 6.8 months, respectively (HR 1.03, p = 0.93). Four out of 50 patients had a complete loss of p53 expression, 20 patients a regular expression and 26 patients had tumors with p53 overexpression. The p53 status had no impact on OS (p = 0.91); however, a significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) (6.0 vs 1.8 months, HR 0.24, p = 0.02) and a higher rate of skin rash (84% vs 25%, p = 0.02) was observed for patients with a regular p53 expression compared to patients with a complete loss of p53. Conclusion: pERK expression may have an impact on OS in erlotinib-treated patients with advanced pancreatic cancer; p53 should be further investigated for its potential role as a predictive marker for PFS and skin rash

Iron Status and Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Ferric Carboxymaltose Treatment in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Background and Aims:We analyzed iron deficiency and the therapeutic response following intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in a large single-center inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) cohort. Methods: 250 IBD patients were retrospectively analyzed for iron deficiency and iron deficiency anemia. A subgroup was analyzed regarding efficacy and side effects of iron supplementation with ferric carboxymaltose. Results: In the cohort (n = 250), 54.4% of the patients had serum iron levels 60 mu g/dl, 61.6% had ferritin >100 ng/ml, and 90.7% reached Hb >12/13 g/dl at follow-up (p < 0.0001 for all parameters vs. pretreatment values). The most frequent adverse event was a transient increase of liver enzymes with male gender as risk factor (p = 0.008, OR 8.62, 95% CI 1.74-41.66). Conclusions: Iron deficiency and anemia are frequent in IBD patients. Treatment with ferric carboxymaltose is efficious, safe and well tolerated in iron-deficient IBD patients. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Base