Implicit cooperation? The northeast atlantic mackerel fishery

This paper presents a quarterly, game-theoretic model of the Northeast Atlantic mackerel to study the fishing strategies of five players, the EU, Norway, the Faeroe Islands, Iceland, and the international fishery on the high seas. Data on the spatial distribution of fish catches 1977-2011 are used to model changes in the distribution of the mackerel stock. The Nash equilibrium solutions predict a severe decimation of the stock through overfishing, either by parties (Iceland, the Faeroe Islands) that refuse to cooperate, or by a general absence of cooperation. There is a wide discrepancy between this prediction and reality, as the stock seems only moderately overexploited or not at all, despite non-cooperation by Iceland and the Faeroe Islands. It is conjectured that these parties, and others, may have a degree of implicit cooperation that falls somewhat short of full cooperation but avoids the extreme destruction of the Nash equilibrium. This implicit cooperation can be seen as being maintained by a mutually assured destruction of the fisheries of all parties in case they go to the logical extremes of non-cooperation

CO2 intensity and GDP per capita

The relationship between CO2 intensity and GDP per capita is studied. Most rich countries show falling CO2 intensity over time and a negative correlation with GDP per capita. Many poor and medium rich countries show the opposite, a positive time trend and a positive correlation with GDP per capita. For the majority of countries with a negative correlation between CO2 intensity and GDP per capita a non-linear function fits the data better than a linear one, implying that CO2 intensity falls at a diminishing rate as countries get richer. Hence, economic growth will not by itself go very far in reconciling economic growth and reductions in CO2 emissions. There are indications that poor and medium rich countries experience a boost in CO2 intensity as they embark on industrialization. This will also make it harder to reconcile economic growth and cuts in CO2 emissions

The Norwegian winter herring fishery : a story of collapse and technological progress

This paper uses data from early 20th century to 1971 to estimate a production function for the Norwegian winter herring fishery, which collapsed in the early 1970s. The focus is on technological progress and the sensitivity of the catch per unit of effort to the size of the stock. This relationship appears to have become stronger rather than weaker as a result of the introduction of the sonar and the power block. The productivity increase appears to have been greatest for the power block, and then for echo sounders and engines used in auxiliary boats. Estimates of stock elasticity indicate little sensitivity of the catch per unit of effort to the size of the fish stock

Sharing the herring : fish migrations, strategic advantage, and climate change

This paper analyzes the strategic options of Norway and other countries for which the stock of Norwegian spring spawning herring may be accessible. A cooperative solution would make all parties better off. In a cooperative solution Norway must obtain a relatively large share of the total catch quota, because of her strategic advantage. The critical share to be offered to Norway does not have anything to do with the zonal attachment of the stock, interpreted as the share of the stock within the Norwegian economic zone. A rise in the temperature in the Northeast Atlantic could mean a larger carrying capacity for the stock and more extensive migration. This in turn would mean a less strong attachment of the stock to the Norwegian economic zone, strengthening the bargaining position of other parties than Norway

Climate Change and its effect on the Norwegian cod fishing industry

The background for the paper is the expected climate change and its effect on the Norwegian cod fishing industry. Global warming is predicted to increase the stock of cod in the Barents Sea. Oceanographers expect that the total allowable catch (TAC) of Northeast Arctic cod will increase by about 50%. The Norwegian part of the TAC is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, given the existing relative distribution of quota between Russia, Norway and third countries. During the time period from 1990 to 2001 the average total gross value of the Norwegian landed cod was 2.5 billion kroner (2003-value) per year. The climate induced expansion in the cod stock is expected to increase the landed value by the Norwegian fleet by 0.5-1.0 billion Norwegian kroner (2003-value) per year, depending on how sensitive the price is for changes in quantity

Technological change and the tragedy of the commons: the Lofoten fishery over hundred and thirty years

Why did the Lofoten cod fishery in Norway – a fishery on one of the world’s richest spawning grounds - remain less productive than alternative industries until the mid-1960s, despite important modernization of the fleet and fishing gear, improvements in technology and institutional change? We analyze the effect of technological change on labor and total factor productivity as well as exit and entry patterns using detailed data for 130 years. Our findings support the important role of natural resources in productivity and improvements in welfare in natural resource-based industries. The total factor productivity has risen faster than labor productivity in the fishery, indicating that the considerable technological progress in this industry has to some extent been neutralized by the decline in the fish stock. Open access to the fish resource most probably led to this situation

Strictly for the Birds? A Note on the Ecosystem Effects of the Collapse of the Pacific Sardine

In the 1950s the Pacific sardine collapsed, and the fishery declined from a historical peak of over 600,000 metric tons in 1936 to less than 100,000 tons after 1951 and was virtually nonexistent for 25 years (1965-90). Despite this, the landings of sardine predators increased after the sardine collapse and fell as the sardine stock recovered. Using an error correction model it is nevertheless possible to identify individual species on which the sardine collapse has a discernible and expected effect. According to this, the landings of seven species (barracuda, bluefin tuna, giant sea bass, sheephead, skipjack tuna, white sea bass, and yellowtail) can be expected to decline with the sardine stock, but the effects are small. It is hypothesized that variations in the sardine stock mainly affects noncommercial predators such as marine mammals and especially sea birds. This poses severe challenges to an ecosystem-based management of the sardine fishery.Keywords: Fisheries Economics, Fishery Management, Environmental, Ecological and Economic Considerations in the Conservation and Management of Forage FishKeywords: Fisheries Economics, Fishery Management, Environmental, Ecological and Economic Considerations in the Conservation and Management of Forage Fis

Norway's experience with ITQs: A rejoinder

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Marine Policy 2014, following peer review. The final publication Marine Policy 2014, 44:473-474 is available at Elsevier via 10.1016/j.marpol.2013.08.013

When is fish quota enforcement worth while? : a study of the Northeast Arctic cod

Many fish stocks are controlled by fish quotas divided among individual firms. Such quota regimes need an enforcement mechanism in order to be effective. Whether or not quota management regimes are worth while depends on whether the rents generated by such regimes cover their costs. Cost-efficient quota regimes would attain an optimal deterrence through minimal control and high fines, but in practice there are likely to be socially-determined limits on how high fines could be set. For shared stocks, the optimal degree of enforcement in one country depends critically on the degree of enforcement achieved by the other countries involved. We analyze these questions for the Northeast Arctic cod stock, using data on enforcement of Norwegian fish quotas

Global warming and fish migrations

Ocean temperatures are expected to rise over the next decades. This is likely to affect the distribution of fish stocks between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of different countries. Such changes are likely to be triggered as temperatures rise beyond certain threshold levels, and they are likely to be irregular, because temperatures are likely to vary around a rising trend. The paper looks at the case where temperature changes would displace a fish stock out of the EEZ of one country and into the EEZ of another, with a transition period in which the stock is shared. It is examined how this might affect the risk of extinction and degree of overfishing, under different cost scenarios and different assumptions about how countries react to observed changes in the distribution of the stock between their economic zones