Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigorous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon.

Risk, Size and Concentration in the Chilean Banking System

The possible merger of two of Chile’s largest banks spurred a strong debate. It is claimed that higher levels of bank concentration would significantly increase the aggregate (systemic) risk of the banking system. This assumes implicitly that the bankers’ attitude toward risk taking are correlated with bank size and that current regulations of Chilean banks would not be sufficient to prevent an increase in overall risk. This paper evaluates both at the theoretical and empirical level whether there is any support for this claim.

A Framework for Printing and Minting Plans

This paper presents alternative models for forecasting the demand for bills and coins of different denominations. When compared to the models often used, the root mean squared forecasting error is substantially reduced. The paper also develops a new framework to formulate the printing and minting programs by using density forecasts along with information on technological constraints and preferences of the policy maker.

Sources of Growth in Latin America: What Is Missing?

The country studies and their background papers included in this book were prepared for the Latin America and the Caribbean section of the "Global Research Project: Explaining Growth" of the Global Development Network (GDN), a research effort conducted in association with the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA). Latin American countries are falling behind. The growth record of Latin America in the recent past has been poor. For decades the average income per capita in Latin America has fallen relative to those of other countries, raising concerns about the capacity of the region to emulate more successful developing countries and lift its living standards closer to those of the developed world. What is failing? Two overview chapters, six country studies and four background thematic studies have been assembled in this book to present a comprehensive answer to this question