A Micro-level Analysis of Recent Increases in Labor Force Participation among Older Workers

Aggregate data reveal a sizable increase in labor force participation rates since 2000 among workers on the cusp of retirement, reverting back to levels for older men not seen since the 1970s. These aggregate numbers are useful in that they document overall trends, but they lack the ability to identify the reasons behind workers’ decisions. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) spans the last dozen years from 1992 to 2004, includes two cohorts of retirees, and provides micro-level data regarding these recent trends. Moreover, the HRS contains information on older Americans and the types of jobs they are taking (full-time versus part-time, self-employed versus wage-and-salary, low-paying versus high-paying, blue collar versus white collar, etc.). This study capitalizes on the richness of the HRS data and explores labor force determinants and outcomes of older Americans, with an emphasis on retirees' choices in recent years. We present a cross-sectional and longitudinal description of the financial, health, and employment situation of older Americans. We then explore retirement determinants using a multinomial approach to model gradual retirement and a two-step approach to model the work-leisure and hours intensity decisions of older workers. Evidence suggests that the majority of older Americans retire gradually, in stages, and that younger retirees continue to respond to financial incentives just as their predecessors did. In addition, recent macro-level changes appear to have blurred the distinction between younger and middle-aged retirees.Economics of Aging, Partial Retirement, Gradual Retirement

An Update on Bridge Jobs: The HRS War Babies

Are today’s youngest retirees following in the footsteps of their older peers with respect to gradual retirement? Recent evidence from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) suggests that most older Americans with full-time career jobs later in life transitioned to another job prior to complete labor force withdrawal. This paper explores the retirement patterns of a younger cohort of individuals from the HRS known as the “War Babies.” These survey respondents were born between 1942 and 1947 and were 57 to 62 years of age at the time of their fourth bi-annual HRS interview in 2004. We compare the War Babies to an older cohort of HRS respondents and find that, for the most part, the War Babies have followed the gradual-retirement trends of their slightly older predecessors. Traditional one-time, permanent retirements appear to be fading, a sign that the impact of changes in the retirement income landscape since the 1980s continues to unfold.Economics of Aging, Partial Retirement, Gradual Retirement

The Role of Re-entry in the Retirement Process

To what extent do older Americans re-enter the labor force after an initial exit and what drives these “unretirement” decisions? Retirement for most older Americans with full-time career jobs is not a one-time, permanent event. Labor force exit is more likely to be a process. Prior studies have found that between one half and two thirds of career workers take at least one other job before exiting from the labor force completely. The transitional nature of retirement may be even more pronounced when considering the impact of re-entry. This paper examines the extent to which older Americans with career jobs re-entered the labor force. The analysis is based on data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), an ongoing, longitudinal survey of older Americans that began in 1992. We examined the retirement patterns of a subset of 5,617 HRS respondents who were on a full-time career job at the time of the first interview. Logistic regression was used to explore determinants of re-entry among those who initially exited the labor force. We found that approximately 15 percent of older Americans with career jobs returned to the labor force after initially exiting. Respondents were more likely to re-enter if they were younger, were in better health, or had a defined-contribution pension plan. This research provides empirical evidence of how older Americans are utilizing bridge jobs as they transition from career employment, and that re-entry may be an important part of the work experience of older Americans.Economics of Aging, Partial Retirement, Bridge Jobs, Gradual Retirement

Self-Employment Transitions among Older American Workers with Career Jobs

What role does self-employment play in the retirement process? Older Americans are staying in the labor force longer than prior trends would have predicted and many change jobs later in life. These job transitions are often within the same occupation or across occupations within wage-and-salary employment. The transition can also be out of wage-and-salary work and into self employment. Indeed, national statistics show that self employment becomes more prevalent with age, partly because self employment provides older workers with opportunities not found in traditional wage-and-salary jobs, such as flexibility in hours worked and independence. This paper analyzes transitions into and out of self employment among older workers who have had career jobs. We utilize the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally-representative dataset of older Americans, to investigate the prevalence of self employment among older workers who made a job transition later in life and to explore the factors that determine the choice of wage-and-salary employment or self employment. We find that post-career transitions into and out of self employment are common and that health status, career occupation, and financial variables are important determinants of these transitions. As older Americans and the country as a whole face financial strains in retirement income in the years ahead, self employment may be a vital part of the pro-work solution.Retirement, Retirement Transitions, Self Employment

The Importance of Education-Occupation Matching in Migration Decisions

In this article, we present and test a model that incorporates education-occupation matching into the migration decision. The literature on education-occupation matching shows that earnings are affected by how individuals\u27 education matches that required by their occupation. Accordingly, individuals with more schooling than required by their occupation have an additional incentive to migrate: the increase in earnings that occurs with a more beneficial education-occupation match. Using data from Mexico, we found statistical support for the importance of education-occupation matching in migration decisions. Education-occupation matching provides a plausible explanation for the mixed findings in the literature on the relationship between educational attainment and migration

Visualizing probabilistic models: Intensive Principal Component Analysis

Unsupervised learning makes manifest the underlying structure of data without curated training and specific problem definitions. However, the inference of relationships between data points is frustrated by the `curse of dimensionality' in high-dimensions. Inspired by replica theory from statistical mechanics, we consider replicas of the system to tune the dimensionality and take the limit as the number of replicas goes to zero. The result is the intensive embedding, which is not only isometric (preserving local distances) but allows global structure to be more transparently visualized. We develop the Intensive Principal Component Analysis (InPCA) and demonstrate clear improvements in visualizations of the Ising model of magnetic spins, a neural network, and the dark energy cold dark matter ({\Lambda}CDM) model as applied to the Cosmic Microwave Background.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Crowding-induced hybridization of single DNA hairpins

It is clear that a crowded environment influences the structure, dynamics, and interactions of biological molecules, but the complexity of this phenomenon demands the development of new experimental and theoretical approaches. Here we use two complementary single-molecule FRET techniques to show that the kinetics of DNA base pairing and unpairing, which are fundamental to both the biological role of DNA and its technological applications, are strongly modulated by a crowded environment. We directly observed single DNA hairpins, which are excellent model systems for studying hybridization, either freely diffusing in solution or immobilized on a surface under crowding conditions. The hairpins followed two-state folding dynamics with a closing rate increasing by 4-fold and the opening rate decreasing 2-fold, for only modest concentrations of crowder [10% (w/w) polyethylene glycol (PEG)]. These experiments serve both to unambiguously highlight the impact of a crowded environment on a fundamental biological process, DNA base pairing, and to illustrate the benefits of single-molecule approaches to probing the structure and dynamics of complex biomolecular systems