Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability

We present a model of optimal government policy when policies may exacerbate socio-political instability (SPI). We show that the optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The predictions of the model are tested by developing three new measures of SPI for a panel of 58 countries. Estimating the optimal government policy from the model reveals strong support for the theory. In particular, we show via simulations that optimal policy causes the economy to expand on a quasi-balanced growth path, with the level of SPI determining whether growth is positive or negative.socio-political instability; endogenous growth; public investment; political economy of growth

Political Risk and Capital Flight

Capital flight often amounts to a substantial proportion of GDP when developing countries face crises. This paper presents a portfolio choice model that relates capital flight to rate of return differentials, risk aversion, and three types of risk: financial risk, political risk, and policy risk. Estimating the equilibrium capital flight equation for a panel of 47 developing countries over 16 years, we show that all three types of risk have a statistically significant impact on capital flight. Quantitatively, political risk is the most important factor causing capital flight. We also identify several political factors that reduce capital flight by signaling market-oriented reforms are imminent.capital flight; political risk; policy risk; portfolio choice

Automating an orbiter approach to Space Station Freedom to minimize plume impingement

The Space shuttle orbiter Reaction Control System's (RCS) plume impingement during proximity operations with Space Station Freedom (SSF) is a structural design driver for the SSF solar panels and radiators. A study underway at JSC is investigating whether the use of an automated approach controller could result in the reduction of plume impingement induced loads during orbiter approach to SSF. Ongoing real time person-in-the-loop (PIL) simulations of an orbiter approaching the SSF show that orbiter trajectory control can vary significantly from one pilot to the next. This variation is a cause for concern since current analyses predict that plume impingement loads resulting from PIL orbiter approaches may exceed the solar panel and radiator load limits. The use of an automated approach controller is expected to reduce peak loads by both minimizing orbiter translational jet firings in certain directions and controlling the frequency at which they occur during various phases of the approach

Vibration analysis of a diesel engine mounted on a test chassis

This paper presents vibration analyses performed on a diesel engine mounted on a test chassis. Four methods were used in analyzing engine vibrations on the test chassis. Static engine vibration analysis was an experimental method used to identify natural engine frequencies and modes shapes on the test chassis. In this technique, the non-running engine was excited by an external input force. A running engine analysis was used to determine engine resonance frequencies. In this analysis, the engine was excited by the running dynamics of its components. Engine speeds at those resonance frequencies were also determined in this test. Thirdly, lumped mass modeling was used in analyzing engine vibrations. In this analysis, the engine was analytically modeled as a rigid block. Thus, only inelastic mode shapes of the engine were determined. Finite Element Analysis was the last method performed. In this analysis, both the vibration of the engine and its test chassis were analyzed by finite element modeling. Thus, dynamic mode shapes were determined. Finally, resonance frequencies from all four methods were compared. The experimental natural mode shapes, using the static engine analysis, were correlated with Finite Element Analysis results using the Modal Assurance Criteria formula

Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability

We present a model of optimal government policy when policy choices may exacerbate socio-political instability (SPI). We show that optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The resulting equilibrium dynamics inherit the properties of government policies and need not be monotone. Indeed, for a broad set of conditions we demonstrate that government policy is unable to eliminate the poverty trap; when these conditions do not hold, "most" countries eventually reach a balanced growth path. The predictions of the model are tested by developing three new measures of SPI for a panel of 58 countries. Estimating optimal policies and the growth equation derived from the model reveals strong support for the theory. In particular, we show via simulations that optimal funding for public investment and the police cause a typical developing economy to expand on a quasi-linear growth path, with the baseline level of SPI determining whether growth is positive or negative.Socio-Political Instability, Endogenous Growth, Public Investment, Political Economy of Growth

途上国都市におけるモーターサイクルと公共交通とを組み合わせた移動に対する行動意図に関する研究－ホーチミンシティでの調査をもとに

東洋大学201