Reshaping Global Supply Chain:The US-China Trade War, China’s Zero Covid Policy, and Vietnam’s Trade Boom

This study investigates the effect of the US-China Trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam’s Trade Volume. People believe that both these geopolitical factors and the global health crisis have helped Vietnam experience a boom in its Trade patterns. This study aims to examine how geopolitics partially reshape the global supply chain and how public health crises partially determine the trade patterns across the countries. We collected data for Vietnam’s GDP and GDP per capita constant for 2015$ from 2001 to 2022. The Pooled OLS model suggests that the trade war and pandemic both have a significant impact on Vietnam’s trade boom but when both are included in the regression, only the trade war shows the significant influence on Vietnam’s trading pattern

Corruption Perceptions During the Pandemic

This study delves into the response of corruption perception indices to the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate whether a global shift in corruption indices occurred post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, we assess changes in standard errors of these indices before and after the pandemic to gauge shifts in consensus among people regarding corruption levels of a country. Given the WGI-CC\u27s lack of year-to-year comparability across countries, we recalculated WGI-CC standard errors using methods akin to TI-CPI score calculations. Subsequently, we employ regression analysis, incorporating independent variables such as population, GDP, education, and political regime to explore whether changes in standard errors of corruption indices are statistically significantly influenced by COVID-19 data, including confirmed cases and deaths

Foreign Direct Investment and Global Supply Chain Reshaping in ASEAN

The intensifying geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have led to profound changes in global supply chains, particularly in recent years. Additionally, China\u27s strict Zero Covid policy has further complicated the operations of multinational corporations during the pandemic. These developments have forced companies to rethink their sourcing strategies, diversify their suppliers, and relocate manufacturing to reduce tariff impacts and minimize supply chain risks. This study examines how the trade war and the Zero Covid policy have accelerated the diversification of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from the U.S. and China into Southeast Asia. We analyze FDI data from key ASEAN economies, exploring correlations between the trade war and the evolving FDI patterns of the U.S. and China in the region. Our research finds that neither the trade war nor the COVID-19 pandemic has had a statistically significant impact on the growth and pattern of U.S. FDI into the region. However, there has been a notable shift in the distribution of Chinese FDI across the region. This suggests that U.S. government policies aimed at reshaping global supply chains have partially succeeded—not by altering American manufacturers\u27 supply chains in the region, but by prompting their Chinese counterparts to restructure theirs.https://scholarship.depauw.edu/srfposters/1150/thumbnail.jp

Anticorruption and Growth: Evidence from China

Many studies have examined corruption’s effect upon economic growth. This study takes a different approach and investigates whether anticorruption campaigns might also lower economic growth, at least in the short run. We focus upon the anticorruption campaigns run by the Communist Party of China in recent years. To measure the intensity of the Party’s anticorruption efforts, we count the number of articles from official newspapers that discuss corruption or anticorruption policies. These official Chinese newspapers are controlled by the Party as its mouthpieces and the inclusion of articles and editorials in these papers only appear with official approval. Therefore, the frequency of corruption and anticorruption articles within these papers provides information for how seriously the Party views corruption and how strenuously the Party is fighting it. We first analyze the patterns of the anticorruption campaigns across provinces and over time while also comparing our measure with other measures of corruption and anticorruption. Using data from Chinese provinces, we then estimate the effect of anticorruption upon economic growth. We employ fixed effects models and find a negative effect from anticorruption upon economic growth. Concerned that economic growth could impact the intensity of anticorruption campaigns, we utilize dynamic GMM estimation methodologies and also propose an external instrument for our anticorruption proxy. Results remained robust. Finally, we measure the effects of anticorruption not by our newspaper proxies but by looking at growth effects during and after the sentencing of high ranking government officials on corruption charges. Economic growth is once again found to be lower. Moreover, this negative effect appears to last for two years. Our findings do not imply that governments should not try to lower corruption, but do suggest a cost of doing so

Anticorruption and Growth: Evidence from China

Many studies have examined corruption’s effect upon economic growth. This study takes a different approach and investigates whether anticorruption campaigns might also lower economic growth, at least in the short run. We focus upon the anticorruption campaigns run by the Communist Party of China in recent years. To measure the intensity of the Party’s anticorruption efforts, we count the number of articles from official newspapers that discuss corruption or anticorruption policies. These official Chinese newspapers are controlled by the Party as its mouthpieces and the inclusion of articles and editorials in these papers only appear with official approval. Therefore, the frequency of corruption and anticorruption articles within these papers provides information for how seriously the Party views corruption and how strenuously the Party is fighting it. We first analyze the patterns of the anticorruption campaigns across provinces and over time while also comparing our measure with other measures of corruption and anticorruption. Using data from Chinese provinces, we then estimate the effect of anticorruption upon economic growth. We employ fixed effects models and find a negative effect from anticorruption upon economic growth. Concerned that economic growth could impact the intensity of anticorruption campaigns, we utilize dynamic GMM estimation methodologies and also propose an external instrument for our anticorruption proxy. Results remained robust. Finally, we measure the effects of anticorruption not by our newspaper proxies but by looking at growth effects during and after the sentencing of high ranking government officials on corruption charges. Economic growth is once again found to be lower. Moreover, this negative effect appears to last for two years. Our findings do not imply that governments should not try to lower corruption, but do suggest a cost of doing so

ECON 480B Economics Senior Seminar Qu Spring 2024

The goal of this course is to use economic theory to analyze important theoretical, empirical, and policy questions. An additional objective is to challenge students to achieve exemplary analytical writing, presentation, speaking, and listening skills

THE EFFECTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNDERVALUATIONS UPON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

The dissertation investigates the effects of real exchange rate undervaluations upon long-run economic growth and development and focuses on three issues. Rodrik (2008) claims that weak institutions hurt the development of the tradable sector more than that of the nontradable sector and that undervaluation can foster growth by diminishing the distortion created by weak institutions between the two sectors. Using the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset on four components of institutional quality, Chapter One of my dissertation examines the effects of investment profile, law and order, corruption, and bureaucratic quality upon the relative development of the tradable sector to the nontradable sector, which is measured by the ratio of industry value added to services valued added. On the basis of comparison of the two sectors, the panel evidence of 131 countries indicates that none of the four components mentioned above is positively associated with the relative development of the tradable sector to the nontradable sector. That is, the tradable sector does not suffer disproportionately (compared to the nontradable sector) from institutional weaknesses. Our results cast skepticism upon one of Rodrik\u27s explanations on the growth-promoting effects of real undervaluation because the existence of such a distortion is not supported empirically. Chapter Two concentrates on the effect of real undervaluations on one key aspect of economic development, the income distribution. Based upon the recent availability of an undervaluation index and two databases on Gini coefficients, this study investigates how real undervaluations affect levels and changes in income inequality. The panel evidence of 136 countries indicates that real undervaluations are associated with a decline in levels of income inequality but have no significant association with changes in income inequality. Therefore, the relationship between real undervaluations and levels of income inequality is likely to stem from reverse causality. My main findings may help policymakers who attempt to use an undervaluation policy fully realize that real undervaluations will not hurt the distribution of income. Moreover, I also revisit Rodrik\u27s growth regressions so as to investigate whether or not the same positive association between real undervaluations and economic growth held in Rodrik (2008) reoccurs in my sample. The results are somewhat mixed, depending upon which dataset is employed. Motivated by two distinct characteristics in economic performance of East Asia and Latin America in the past half century, Chapter Three explores the possibility that the difference in levels of domestic savings is one of the historical reasons that countries pursued different exchange rate policies. My panel evidence is somewhat mixed. The results based on the sample of all countries are consistent with the theoretical claim that real undervaluations can mitigate more imbalances and stimulate higher growth when the level of domestic savings is high. However, for the sample of developing countries, the results indicate that initial level of domestic savings does not matter for the growth-promoting effect of real undervaluation. On the contrary, it does matter across developed countries where internal imbalances are supposed to be less common relative to developing countries. This study suggests that more theoretical and empirical investigation is necessary in the future to disclose further the mechanism through which real undervaluations boost long-run growth

ECON 100A&B Introduction to Economics Qu Spring 2024

Economics studies decision-making behaviors, prioritizing thoughtful choices over mere profit-seeking actions. It embodies a way of thinking and a framework for reasoning. During the initial part of the semester, basic concepts and models come to the fore, including the opportunity cost and the supply-and-demand model. These serve as building blocks to comprehend the essentials of decision-making processes. As the course progresses, we delve into the behaviors of consumers and businesses and of how markets coordinate among them, namely microeconomic analysis. The subsequent phase of the course considers the economy as a whole and introduces basic concepts of macroeconomics, such as GDP, CPI, and the unemployment rate. We then discuss factors that determines long-term growth and short- term fluctuations of an economy. Over the duration of the semester, we leverage economic data to scrutinize both societal and economic issues, including topics like healthcare reform, minimum wage, income inequality, and more. We apply economic principles to our daily lives, assessing the merits and drawbacks of public policies, thus fostering an understanding of the applicability and significance of these principles

Undervaluation, Institutions, and Development

Rodrik (2008) claims that weak institutions hurt the development of the tradable sector more than that of the nontradable sector and that undervaluation can foster growth by diminishing the distortion created by weak institutions between the two sectors. Using the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset on four components of institutional quality, we consider the effects of investment profile, law and order, corruption, and bureaucratic quality upon the relative development of the tradable sector to the nontradable sector, which is measured by the ratio of industry value added to services valued added. On the basis of comparison of the two sectors, the panel evidence of 131 countries indicates that none of the four components mentioned above is positively associated with the relative development of the tradable sector to the nontradable sector. That is, the tradable sector does not suffer disproportionately (compared to the nontradable sector) from institutional weaknesses. Our results cast skepticism upon one of Rodrik’s explanations on the growth-promoting effects of real undervaluation because the existence of such a distortion is not supported empirically

Fixed point theorems of multi-valued decreasing operators on cones

Abstract In this paper, some fixed point theorems for multi-valued decreasing operators are established on cones