チュウゴク ニオケル ヨウロウ ネンキン ホケン ノ コウソウ ト ゲンジツ

In the Reform Era after 1978, it has become one of the crucial difficulties for Chinese government (for both the central government and also local governments) to give supports to aged retired persons. In Chinese system in this era, "danwei" (production and service units) are supposed to provide retired people with relatively high level pension payments and support their lives. However, this puts heavy burdons on "danwei" a which are now exerting all efforts to grow into business enterprises in competitive markets. In addition to this difficulties, this supporting system is now far short of affording retired people cosy and comfortable lives. Therefore, it is now of vital importance to establish social insurance system which could successfully support retired people. In this paper, the author tried to analyze the social insurance plans to support retired people, and the difficulties those plans are faced with

チュウゴク キギョウ ノ ヨジョウ ジンイン タイサク ケイエイ カイカク ト フクシ ノ ユクエ

It is of vital importance for Chinese business enterprises to reduce excessive workers and normalize their unusually "watered" organizations. They have been undertaking measures, carefully avoiding giving workers too much pains. A variety of methods were adopted in order to attain those goals. However, the situations that government and business managers are facing are extremely severe and so far they were not quite successful. Their considerations for workers made their efforts to overcome "watered" organizations unsuccessful, which resulted in more decisive measure "Xia gang" (a sort of lay off). Xia gang quickly spread over all China. As a result, China is now suffering from dual difficulties, that is, difficulties to normalize "watered" organizations and innumerable jobless people

BUDEM: An urban growth simulation model using CA for Beijing metropolitan area

金沢大学理工研究域環境デザイン学系It is in great need of identifying the future urban form of Beijing, which faces challenges of rapid growth in urban development projects implemented in Beijing. We develop Beijing Urban Developing Model (BUDEM in short) to support urban planning and corresponding policies evaluation. BUDEM is the spatio-temporal dynamic model for simulating urban growth in Beijing metropolitan area, using cellular automata (CA) and Multi-agent system (MAS) approaches. In this phase, the computer simulation using CA in Beijing metropolitan area is conducted, which attempts to provide a premise of urban activities including different kinds of urban development projects for industrial plants, shopping facilities, houses. In the paper, concept model of BUDEM is introduced, which is established basing on prevalent urban growth theories. The method integrating logistic regression and MonoLoop is used to retrieve weights in the transition rule by MCE. After model sensibility analysis, we apply BUDEM into three aspects of urban planning practices: (1) Identifying urban growth mechanism in various historical phases since 1986; (2) Identifying urban growth policies needed to implement desired urban form (BEIJING2020), namely planned urban form; (3) Simulating urban growth scenarios of 2049 (BEIJING2049) basing on the urban form and parameter set of BEIJING2020. © 2008 SPIE

シャカイ シュギテキ シュウギョウ ホショウ ジンミン ノ フクシ VS. ケイエイ コウリツ チュウゴク ノ ディレンマ

Chinese policies aimed at maintaining people\u27s welfare by assuring employment for all city workers attained a certain success. However, this success largely depended on administrative compulsory measures which confined rural people in rural areas and strictly prohibited them to move to large cities, and also administratively distributing city workers to government organizations and factories far beyond the organizational requirements, which "watered" organizations and destroyed their effectiveness and efficiencies. Chinese government suffered from this dilemma, and finally decided to save efficiencies by sacrificing employment assurance and peoples welfare. This paper analyzes the difficulties Chinese government have been facing

カイカク カイホウ セイサクカ ニオケル チュウゴク ノ ケイエイ カイカク キホンテキ セイサク ゲンリ ノ テンカン

Chinese policies inaugurated after Communist Revolution, and which lasted up until the beginning of Reform Period, firstly, based on Maoist fundamentalism which puts emphasis on peoples mental exaltation, stoicism, heroism, and mass manpower policy. As a result, they are apt to neglect material incentives to stimulate individual efforts, and seeking for efficient systems. These policies are largely responsible for the backwardness of Chinese economic development. In this paper the authors analyzed : 1) firstly, the process of Management Reforms after 1078, 2) secondly, how they have been successful and what are the weakpoints, 3) and thirdly, how those new policies are based on exactly reversed principles to those in pre-Reform Period

Comportement macroscopique des milieux ductiles poreux et/ou fissurés : cas d'une distribution aléatoire en orientation des cavités

On considère un matériau composé d'une matrice rigide parfaitement plastique obéissant au critère de Von Mises et de cavités sphéroidales aléatoirement orientées. On s’appuie sur des résultats établis par Monchiet et al. (2007) pour une cellule contenant une cavité sphéroidale. L’intégration de ces résultats sur toutes les orientations permet de construire un critère macroscopique isotrope. Enfin, on examine et discute le cas des cavités aplaties puis celui où les cavités sont des fissures circulaires, en comparant les résultats à ceux récemment obtenus par Vincent et al. (2008)

Investigation of Inflation Forecasting

Forecasting methods of the neural network, ARIMA, ARIMA-GARCH, exponential smoothing and others are introduced. Then using U.S. inflation data, based on the out-of-sample forecasting test, the paper studies the advantages and disadvantages of these methods by the empirical comparisons. The empirical results show that, firstly, from the superior to the inferior, the ranking order of the six methods are, the ARIMA-GARCH, ARIMA, neural networks, median method of autoregressive model, least squares method of autoregressive model, exponential smoothing, no matter based on sample mean absolute error or absolute error for one-step forecasting, or absolute error for two-steps forecasting. Secondly, the ARIMA-GARCH method is suitable most to forecast the inflation level in the USA and sometimes sophisticated methods such as neural networks can not improve the forecasting results. Thirdly, according to the out-of-sample forecasting, directions of forecasting errors of these methods are almost the same, indicating that these forecasts have underestimated the inflation level in the USA

Winter Wheat SPAD Value Inversion Based on Multiple Pretreatment Methods

SPAD value was measured by a portable chlorophyll instrument, which can reflect the relative chlorophyll content of vegetation well. Chlorophyll is an important organic chemical substance in plants that acquires and transmits energy during photosynthesis. The continuous spectral curve of winter wheat can be obtained rapidly in a specific band range by using hyperspectral remote sensing technology to estimate the SPAD value of winter wheat, which is of great significance to the growth monitoring and yield estimation research of winter wheat. In this study, with winter wheat as the research object, the spectral data and corresponding SPAD value in different growth stages were used as the data source, 20 kinds of data preprocessing spectra and sensitive spectral indices set the data as model input values, the partial least square regression (PLSR) model was established to estimate the SPAD value, and the model estimation results of different model input values at different growth stages were compared in detail. The results showed that the set of sensitive spectral indices selected in this study as input values can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the PLSR model. In addition, the effects of 20 spectral data pretreatment methods on the estimation results of the SPAD value were compared and analyzed in different growth stages. It was found that the spectral data pretreated by the combination of wavelet packet denoising, first-order derivative transformation and principal component analysis can improve the accuracy and stability of PLSR model, and it is suitable for all growth stages. The results also showed that the estimation model is highly sensitive to the standard deviation of the SPAD value (STDchl) in sample sets. When the standard deviation is greater than 5.5 SPAD, the larger the STDchl is, the higher the model estimation accuracy is, and the more stable the model is. At this time, the model estimation accuracy is higher (R2V is greater than 0.5, ratio of performance to deviation is greater than 1.4), which can meet the estimation requirements of the SPAD value