China’s Financial System: Opportunities and Challenges

We provide a comprehensive review of China’s financial system, and explore directions of future development. First, the financial system has been dominated by a large banking sector. In recent years banks have made considerable progress in reducing the amount of non-performing loans and improving their efficiency. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. We discuss issues related to the further development of China’s stock market and other financial markets. Third, the most successful part of the financial system, in terms of supporting the growth of the overall economy, is a non-standard sector that consists of alternative financing channels, governance mechanisms, and institutions. The co-existence of this sector with banks and markets can continue to support the growth of the Hybrid Sector (non-state, non-listed firms). Finally, among the policies that will help to sustain stable economic growth in China are those that reduce the likelihood of damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a “twin crisis” in the currency market and banking sector.

An Alternative View on Law, Institutions, Finance and Growth

The spectacular economic growth in East Asian economies such as China, South Korea and Taiwan over the past five decades contradicts most of the existing research on law, institutions, finance, and growth. We propose an alternative view based on the comparison of legal institutions and alternative institutions outside the legal system. Despite well-known advantages, the legal system, as a monopolist institution, can be captured by interest groups and become a barrier to innovations. Moreover, in a dynamic environment alternative institutions can adapt and change much more quickly than when the law is used, as this process does not require persuading the legislature and the electorate to revise the law. We argue that in fast-growing economies and during early stages of economic growth, efficient alternative institutions are the main driver for finance, commerce and growth. In static environments with low and predictable growth, legal institutions can play a more important role in supporting finance and commerce. In these environments, however, viable alternative institutions and competition among different types of institutions remain keys to ensuring that the most efficient mechanism prevails and sustains long-term growth

The African Financial Development Gap

Economic growth in Africa has long been disappointing. We document that the financial sectors of most sub-Saharan African countries remain significantly underdeveloped by the standards of other developing countries. We examine the factors that are associated with financial development in Africa and compare them with those in other developing countries. Population density appears to be considerably more important for banking sector development in Africa than elsewhere. Given the high costs of developing viable banking sectors outside metropolitan areas, technology advances, such as mobile banking, could be a promising way to facilitate African financial development. Similarly to other developing countries, natural resources endowment is associated with a lower level of financial development in Africa, but macro policies do not appear to be an important determinant.Africa, finance and growth, banks, institutions, population density

Are All Ratings Created Equal? The Impact of Issuer Size on the Pricing of Mortgage-backed Securities

We examine whether rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch) reward large issuers of mortgage-backed securities, who bring substantial business, by granting them unduly favorable ratings. The initial yield on both AAA-rated and non-AAA rated tranches sold by large issuers is higher than that on similar tranches sold by small issuers during the market boom years of 2004-2006. Moreover, the prices of MBS sold by large issuers drop more than those sold by small issuers, and the differences are concentrated among tranches issued during 2004-2006. We conclude that large issuers receive more favorable ratings and that the market prices the risk of inflated ratings, especially during booming periods.

The African Financial Development Gap

Economic growth in Africa has long been disappointing. We document that the financial sectors of most sub-Saharan African countries remain significantly underdeveloped by the standards of other developing countries. We examine the factors that are associated with financial development in Africa and compare them with those in other developing countries. Population density appears to be considerably more important for banking sector development in Africa than elsewhere. Given the high costs of developing viable banking sectors outside metropolitan areas, technology advances, such as mobile banking, could be a promising way to facilitate African financial development. Similarly to other developing countries, natural resources endowment is associated with a lower level of financial development in Africa, but macro policies do not appear to be an important determinant

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (4th edition)1.

In 2008, we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, this topic has received increasing attention, and many scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Thus, it is important to formulate on a regular basis updated guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Despite numerous reviews, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to evaluate autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. Here, we present a set of guidelines for investigators to select and interpret methods to examine autophagy and related processes, and for reviewers to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of reports that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a dogmatic set of rules, because the appropriateness of any assay largely depends on the question being asked and the system being used. Moreover, no individual assay is perfect for every situation, calling for the use of multiple techniques to properly monitor autophagy in each experimental setting. Finally, several core components of the autophagy machinery have been implicated in distinct autophagic processes (canonical and noncanonical autophagy), implying that genetic approaches to block autophagy should rely on targeting two or more autophagy-related genes that ideally participate in distinct steps of the pathway. Along similar lines, because multiple proteins involved in autophagy also regulate other cellular pathways including apoptosis, not all of them can be used as a specific marker for bona fide autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field

An Overview of China's Financial System

We provide a review of China's financial system and consider the challenges it faces and future reforms. The formal sectors of the financial system, which include a fast-growing stock market and are dominated by a banking sector with large state-owned banks, have played a critical role in financing the state sectors and the investment-driven economic growth model. However, the formal sectors have not served the needs of the private sectors or of households; these dynamic sectors have been financed by alternative finance sectors operating largely outside the markets and formal institutions. Going forward, financial markets need to be further developed to provide more support for the private sectors, including technology and services industries; the formal and alternative sectors should work together to improve the efficiency of resource allocation to better support the new model of consumption- and innovation-driven growth. Finally, the financial system needs to reduce the likelihood of damaging financial crises, which have included a real estate crisis, a banking crisis triggered by defaults on corporate and local government debt, and a twin crisis in the currency market and the banking sector

Implicit guarantees and the rise of shadow banking: The case of trust products

Implicit guarantees provided by financial intermediaries are a key component of China's shadow banking sector. We show theoretically that project screening by intermediaries, accompanied by their implicit guarantees to investors, can be the second-best arrangement and mitigate capital misallocation that favors state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using a dataset of trusts’ investment products, we find, consistent with our model, that ex ante expected yields reflect borrower risks and implicit guarantee strength, and risk sensitivity is reduced by strong guarantees. Regulations in 2018 restricting implicit guarantees lead to a weaker relationship between yield spread and guarantee strength, and more credit rationing of non-SOEs