A novel hybrid swarm optimized multilayer neural network for spatial prediction of flash floods in tropical areas using sentinel-1 SAR imagery and geospatial data

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Flash floods are widely recognized as one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world, therefore prediction of flash flood-prone areas is crucial for public safety and emergency management. This research proposes a new methodology for spatial prediction of flash floods based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and a new hybrid machine learning technique. The SAR imagery is used to detect flash flood inundation areas, whereas the new machine learning technique, which is a hybrid of the firefly algorithm (FA), Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) backpropagation, and an artificial neural network (named as FA-LM-ANN), was used to construct the prediction model. The Bac Ha Bao Yen (BHBY) area in the northwestern region of Vietnam was used as a case study. Accordingly, a Geographical Information System (GIS) database was constructed using 12 input variables (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, toposhade, stream density, rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, and lithology) and subsequently the output of flood inundation areas was mapped. Using the database and FA-LM-ANN, the flash flood model was trained and verified. The model performance was validated via various performance metrics including the classification accuracy rate, the area under the curve, precision, and recall. Then, the flash flood model that produced the highest performance was compared with benchmarks, indicating that the combination of FA and LM backpropagation is proven to be very effective and the proposed FA-LM-ANN is a new and useful tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility

Generation, Characterization and Epitope Mapping of Two Neutralizing and Protective Human Recombinant Antibodies against Influenza A H5N1 Viruses

The development of new therapeutic targets and strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus infection in humans is urgently needed. Broadly cross-neutralizing recombinant human antibodies obtained from the survivors of H5N1 avian influenza provide an important role in immunotherapy for human H5N1 virus infection and definition of the critical epitopes for vaccine development.We have characterized two recombinant baculovirus-expressed human antibodies (rhAbs), AVFluIgG01 and AVFluIgG03, generated by screening a Fab antibody phage library derived from a patient recovered from infection with a highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 clade 2.3 virus. AVFluIgG01 cross-neutralized the most of clade 0, clade 1, and clade 2 viruses tested, in contrast, AVFluIgG03 only neutralized clade 2 viruses. Passive immunization of mice with either AVFluIgG01 or AVFluIgG03 antibody resulted in protection from a lethal H5N1 clade 2.3 virus infection. Furthermore, through epitope mapping, we identify two distinct epitopes on H5 HA molecule recognized by these rhAbs and demonstrate their potential to protect against a lethal H5N1 virus infection in a mouse model.Importantly, localization of the epitopes recognized by these two neutralizing and protective antibodies has provided, for the first time, insight into the human antibody responses to H5N1 viruses which contribute to the H5 immunity in the recovered patient. These results highlight the potential of a rhAbs treatment strategy for human H5N1 virus infection and provide new insight for the development of effective H5N1 pandemic vaccines

Applications of additive semivarying coefficient models: Monthly suicide data from Hong Kong

A semivarying coefficient model for the monthly numbers of suicides in Hong Kong is developed and a new estimation procedure for estimating the parametric component is proposed. The estimators are examined in a small simulation study and fitted to monthly suicide data to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Fitting the model detected interpretable structure in the data that is consistent with that driving public health policy. While exploratory, the analysis motivates the collection of more detailed data and the development of more sophisticated models to help determine target groups and strategies to reduce the suicide rate in Hong Kong. © 2006, The International Biometric Society.link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Forecasting technological innovation

Using a database of sixty-two different technologies, we study the issue of forecasting technological progress. We do so using the following methodology: pretending to be at a given time in the past, we forecast technology prices for years up to present day. Since our forecasts are in the past, we refer to it as hindcasting and analyze the predictions relative to what happened historically. We use hindcasting to evaluate a variety of different hypotheses for technological improvement. Our results indicate that forecasts using production are better than those using time. This conclusion is robust when analyzing randomly chosen subsets of our technology database. We then turn to investigating the interdependence of revenue and technological progress. We derive analytically an upper bound to the rate of technology improvement given the condition of increasing revenue and show empirically that all technologies fall within our derived bound. Our results suggest the observed advantage of using production models for forecasting is due in part to the direct relationship between production and revenue. © 2012 Gesellschaft fuer Informatk

Brain structure and intragenic DNA methylation are correlated, and predict executive dysfunction in fragile X premutation females

DNA methylation of the Fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1) exon 1/intron 1 boundary has been associated with executive dysfunction in female carriers of a FMR1 premutation (PM: 55-199 CGG repeats), whereas neuroanatomical changes have been associated with executive dysfunction in PM males. To our knowledge, this study for the first time examined the inter-relationships between executive function, neuroanatomical structure and molecular measures (DNA methylation and FMR1 mRNA levels in blood) in PM and control (<44 CGG repeats) females. In the PM group, FMR1 intron 1 methylation was positively associated with executive function and cortical thickness in middle and superior frontal gyri, and left inferior parietal gyrus. By contrast, in the control group, FMR1 intron 1 methylation was negatively associated with cortical thickness of the left middle frontal gyrus and superior frontal gyri. No significant associations were revealed for either group between FMR1 mRNA and neuroanatomical structure or executive function. In the PM group, the lack of any significant association between FMR1 mRNA levels and phenotypic measures found in this study suggests that either FMR1 expression is not well conserved between tissues, or that FMR1 intron 1 methylation is linked to neuroanatomical and cognitive phenotype in PM females via a different mechanism

Cerebellar volume mediates the relationship between FMR1 mRNA levels and voluntary step initiation in males with the premutation

Recent evidence indicates that adults with a premutation (PM: 55–199 CGG repeats) expansion in the fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1) gene show postural control deficits that may reflect disruption to cerebellar motor regions. Less is known about the influence of reduced cerebellar volume and structural changes, and increase in CGG repeat and FMR1 mRNA levels on the attentional demands of step initiation in PM males. We investigated the effects of a concurrent cognitive task on choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) and explored the associations between CSRT performance, cerebellar volume, CGG size, and FMR1 mRNA levels in blood in PM males. We examined 19 PM males (ages 28–75) and 23 matched controls (CGG <44; ages 26–77), who performed a verbal fluency task during CSRT performance and single-task stepping without a secondary cognitive task. Our results provide preliminary evidence that smaller cerebellar volume (β = −2.73, p = 0.002) and increasing CGG repeat length (β = 1.69, p = 0.003) were associated with greater dual-task step initiation times in PM males, but not in controls. There was evidence of a mediating effect of cerebellar volume on the relationship between FMR1 mRNA levels and single-task CSRT performance in PM males (estimate coefficient = 8.69, standard error = 4.42, p = 0.049). These findings suggest increasing CGG repeat and FMR1 mRNA levels have neurotoxic effects on cerebellar regions underlying anticipatory postural responses during stepping. Cerebellar postural changes may be predictive of the increased risk of falls in older PM males

Detection of skewed X-chromosome inactivation in Fragile X syndrome and X chromosome aneuploidy using quantitative melt analysis

Methylation of the fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1) exon 1/intron 1 boundary positioned fragile X related epigenetic element 2 (FREE2), reveals skewed X-chromosome inactivation (XCI) in fragile X syndrome full mutation (FM: CGG > 200) females. XCI skewing has been also linked to abnormal X-linked gene expression with the broader clinical impact for sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs). In this study, 10 FREE2 CpG sites were targeted using methylation specific quantitative melt analysis (MS-QMA), including 3 sites that could not be analysed with previously used EpiTYPER system. The method was applied for detection of skewed XCI in FM females and in different types of SCA. We tested venous blood and saliva DNA collected from 107 controls (CGG < 40), and 148 FM and 90 SCA individuals. MS-QMA identified: (i) most SCAs if combined with a Y chromosome test; (ii) locus-specific XCI skewing towards the hypomethylated state in FM females; and (iii) skewed XCI towards the hypermethylated state in SCA with 3 or more X chromosomes, and in 5% of the 47,XXY individuals. MS-QMA output also showed significant correlation with the EpiTYPER reference method in FM males and females (P < 0.0001) and SCAs (P < 0.05). In conclusion, we demonstrate use of MS-QMA to quantify skewed XCI in two applications with diagnostic utility