Computing Bayes Factors for Evidence-Accumulation Models Using Warp-III Bridge Sampling

Over the last decade, the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models has gainedpopularity, largely due to the advantages afforded by the Bayesian hierarchical framework.Despite recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models,model comparison continues to rely on suboptimal procedures, such as posterior parameterinference and model selection criteria known to favor overly complex models. In this paperwe advocate model comparison for evidence-accumulation models based on the Bayesfactor obtained via Warp-III bridge sampling. We demonstrate, using the Linear BallisticAccumulator (LBA), that Warp-III sampling provides a powerful and flexible approachthat can be applied to both nested and non-nested model comparisons, even in complexand high-dimensional hierarchical instantiations of the LBA. We provide an easy-to-usesoftware implementation of the Warp-III sampler and outline a series of recommendationsaimed at facilitating the use of Warp-III sampling in practical applications

Understanding public speakers’ performance: first contributions to support a computational approach

Communication is part of our everyday life and our ability to communicate can have a significant role in a variety of contexts in our personal, academic, and professional lives. For long, the characterization of what is a good communicator has been subject to research and debate by several areas, particularly in Education, with a focus on improving the performance of teachers. In this context, the literature suggests that the ability to communicate is not only defined by the verbal component, but also by a plethora of non-verbal contributions providing redundant or complementary information, and, sometimes, being the message itself. However, even though we can recognize a good or bad communicator, objectively, little is known about what aspects – and to what extent—define the quality of a presentation. The goal of this work is to create the grounds to support the study of the defining characteristics of a good communicator in a more systematic and objective form. To this end, we conceptualize and provide a first prototype for a computational approach to characterize the different elements that are involved in communication, from audiovisual data, illustrating the outcomes and applicability of the proposed methods on a video database of public speakers.publishe

Bayes Factors for Mixed Models: a Discussion

van Doorn et al. (2021) outlined various questions that arise when conducting Bayesian model comparison for mixed effects models. Seven response articles offered their own perspective on the preferred setup for mixed model comparison, on the most appropriate specification of prior distributions, and on the desirability of default recommendations. This article presents a round-table discussion that aims to clarify outstanding issues, explore common ground, and outline practical considerations for any researcher wishing to conduct a Bayesian mixed effects model comparison

Bayesian perspectives on mathematical practice

Mathematicians often speak of conjectures as being confirmed by evidence that falls short of proof. For their own conjectures, evidence justifies further work in looking for a proof. Those conjectures of mathematics that have long resisted proof, such as the Riemann hypothesis, have had to be considered in terms of the evidence for and against them. In recent decades, massive increases in computer power have permitted the gathering of huge amounts of numerical evidence, both for conjectures in pure mathematics and for the behavior of complex applied mathematical models and statistical algorithms. Mathematics has therefore become (among other things) an experimental science (though that has not diminished the importance of proof in the traditional style). We examine how the evaluation of evidence for conjectures works in mathematical practice. We explain the (objective) Bayesian view of probability, which gives a theoretical framework for unifying evidence evaluation in science and law as well as in mathematics. Numerical evidence in mathematics is related to the problem of induction; the occurrence of straightforward inductive reasoning in the purely logical material of pure mathematics casts light on the nature of induction as well as of mathematical reasoning

A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project (k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result (d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect (d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation