ESTIMASI BILANGAN REPRODUKSI DASAR PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI KOTA BIMA TAHUN 2018 - 2020

In this paper, the mathematical model used is the host-vector model for transmission on of dengue  hemorrhagic fever where the host population consists of three compartments, namely susceptible host, infected, and recovered, while the vector population consists of two compartments, namely susceptible vector and infected vector. From this model, an estimate of the basic reproduction number will be constructed with the assumption that the number or humans and mosquitoes infected with the dengue virus grows exponentially with the same growth rate. Applications using field data in the City of Bima obtained an basic reproduction number estimates of  . Because the  estimated values for the basic reproduction number are greater than one, it illustrates that the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bima City from 2018 to 2020 is categorized as an epidemic.Pada tulisan ini model matematika digunakan adalah model  host-vector  trasmisi demam berdarah dengue dimana populasi host  terdiri dari tiga kompartemen, yaitu  susceptible host,     infected , dan recovered  sedangkan populasi vector terdiri dari dua kompartemen  yaitu susceptible vector  dan  infected vector. Dari model tersebut akan dikonstruksi estimasi bilangan reproduksi dasar dengan asumsi bahwa jumlah manusia dan nyamuk terinfeksi virus dengue tumbuh secara eksponensial dengan laju pertumbuhan yang sama. Aplikasi menggunakan data lapangan di Kota Bima diperoleh estimasi bilangan reproduksi dasar sebesar  . Karena nilai estimasi bilangan reproduksi dasar lebih besar dari satu maka memberi gambaran bahwa  penyebaran penyakit demam berdarah dengue di Kota Bima tahun 2018 hingga 2020 masuk kategorik wabah

Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Number of the Distribution of Dengue Fever in the City of Bima, 2018 - 2020

In this paper, the mathematical model used is the host-vector model for transmission on of dengue  hemorrhagic fever where the host population consists of three compartments, namely susceptible host, infected, and recovered, while the vector population consists of two compartments, namely susceptible vector and infected vector. From this model, an estimate of the basic reproduction number will be constructed with the assumption that the number or humans and mosquitoes infected with the dengue virus grows exponentially with the same growth rate. Applications using field data in the City of Bima obtained an basic reproduction number estimates of  . Because the  estimated values for the basic reproduction number are greater than one, it illustrates that the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bima City from 2018 to 2020 is categorized as an epidemic