Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases until 2050: technical mitigation potentials and cost

The anthropogenic fluorinated (F-gases) greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly in recent years and are estimated to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase out of ozonedepleting substances (ODS) under the Montreal Protocol. F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming effect up to 22,800 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). This study presents estimates of current and future global emissions of F-gases, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic F-gases for 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. For each region, 18 emission source sectors with mitigation potentials and costs were identified. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.7 Gt CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to about 3.6 Gt CO2eq in 2050. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions by over 95 percent primarily through replacement with existing low GWP substances. The initial results indicate that at least half of the mitigation potential is attainable at a cost of less than 20C per t CO2eq, while almost 90 percent reduction is attainable at less than 100C per t CO2eq. Currently, several policy proposals have been presented to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially curb global HFC use. We analyze the technical potentials and costs associated with the HFC mitigation required under the different proposed Montreal Protocol amendments

Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050: GAINS model methodology

This report presents the GAINS model methodology for the 2016 Reference scenario for emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), mitigation potentials and costs in the EU-28 with projections to 2050. The non-CO2 emission scenarios form part of the work under the EUCLIMIT2 project1. The project aims at producing projections for all emissions of GHGs in the EU-28 consistent with the macroeconomic and population projections presented in EC/DG ECFIN (2015). Four modelling groups were involved in the work: PRIMES (National Technical University of Athens), CAPRI (Bonn University), GLOBIOM (IIASA-ESM program) and GAINS (IIASA-MAG program). This report focuses on describing the methodology of the GAINS model for the estimation of the non-CO2 GHGs, i.e., methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (F-gases) viz. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The report is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the general GAINS methodology for estimating draft non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions for EU-28. Sections 3, 4 and 5 describe in detail the methodology applied for estimation of emissions by source for CH4, N2O and Fgases, respectively. Finally, Section 6 provides a comparison between emissions reported by member states to the UNFCCC for years 2005 and 2010 and the emissions estimated by the GAINS model for the same years

Comparative evaluation of different reference evapotranspiration models

The study was carried out to select best alternative method for the estimation of reference evapotranspi-ration (ET0). Accurate estimation of potential evapotranspiration is a necessary step in water resource management. Recently, the FAO-56 version of Penman-Monteith equation has been established as a standard for calculating ref-erence evapotranspiration (ET0) which requires measurement of a number of meteorological parameters namely, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed which may not be available in most of the meteoro-logical stations. Still there are different approaches (requiring less data) which estimate ET0 closely to Penman- Monteith (P-M) method for different climatological conditions. The present study is based on analysis of long term of 13 years (2000 to 2012) climatic data to calculate monthly reference evapotranspiration for Capsicum production (September–March) and also to compare the performance of evapotranspiration equations for Jhalawar district of Rajasthan with the standard FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method on the basis of the least root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. Hargreaves method and Pan evaporation (E-Pan) method overestimated the values of ETo when compared with FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method. On the basis of lowest value of RMSE, Pan evaporation method is found best alternative method to FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method in the study area

The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals

In the latest (fifth) assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) non-CO2 emssions accounted for 28% of total GHG emissions in 2010, when measured on the basis of their global warming potential (relative to CO2) over a 100-year and nitrous oxide (N2O) accounting for about half of all non-CO2 GHGs. With population and incomes increasing, especially in emerging economies, these emissions could grow significantly in the future. Other major sources of non-CO2 GHGs are fugitive CH4 from the extraction and distribution of fossil fuels, N2O from industrial production of nitric and adipic acid, as well as fluorinated gases (F-gases) from a range of industrial manufacturing and product uses. This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios which are focused on meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The paper demonstrates how an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors is coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS) in order to provide a complete picture of GHG emissions in a reference scenario in which there is no mitigation of either CO2 or non-CO2 gases, as well as in scenarios in which both CO2 and non-CO2 gases are mitigated in order to achieve different LTTGs

Achieving Paris climate goals calls for increasing ambition of the Kigali Amendment

We assess that full global compliance with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will not provide emission reductions consistent with the 1.5oC target of the Paris Agreement. Following the Montreal Protocol’s start-and-strengthen approach to refrigerant management, fast-tracking hydrofluorocarbon phase-down under the Kigali Amendment would result in additional reductions vital for achieving the Paris climate goals. This would also increase chances of staying below 1.5oC additional warming throughout this century

Adoption of Improved Cultivars of Pearl Millet in an Arid Environment: Straw Yield and Quality Considerations in Western Rajasthan

The role of straw yield and quality in farmers' decisions about the adoption of pearl millet cultivars in western Rajasthan was examined using farm household surveys. Information on the relative importance of grain versus straw yield, the perceived risks associated with the use of new cultivars under variable climatic conditions and perceptions of straw quality indicated that improved cultivars of pearl millet were not adopted primarily because of poor grain yield in years with low rainfall, though poor straw yield in such years was also important. These results are particularly pertinent in the light of farmers' perceptions of the likelihood of experiencing drought or low rainfall. If new cultivars of pearl millet are to replace the traditional ones, they must perform better under conditions of limited rainfall

Co-benefits of Energy-Efficient Air Conditioners in the Residential Building Sector of China

Electricity demand for room air conditioners (ACs) has been growing significantly in China in response to rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. In this study, we use the bottom-up model approach to predict the penetration rate of room ACs in the residential building sector of China at the provincial level, with the consideration of the urban–rural heterogeneity. In addition, we assess co-benefits associated with enhanced energy efficiency improvement of AC systems and the adoption of low-global-warming-potential (low-GWP) refrigerants in AC systems. The results indicate that the stock of room ACs in China grows from 568 million units in 2015 to 997 million units in 2030 and 1.1 billion units in 2050. The annual electricity saving from switching to more efficient ACs using low-GWP refrigerants is estimated at almost 1000 TWh in 2050 when taking account of the full technical energy efficiency potential. This is equivalent to approximately 4% of the expected total energy consumption in the Chinese building sector in 2050 or the avoidance of 284 new coal-fired power plants of 500 MW each. The cumulative CO2eq mitigation associated with both the electricity savings and the substitution of high-GWP refrigerants makes up 2.6% of total business-as-usual CO2eq emissions in China over the period 2020 to 2050. The transition toward the uptake of low-GWP refrigerants is as vital as the energy efficiency improvement of new room ACs, which can help and accelerate the ultimate goal of building a low-carbon society in China

Potentials and Costs for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Annex I Countries: Methodology

This report documents the basic methodology of IIASA's GAINS model that has been used for comparing mitigation efforts across Annex I Parties. Additional information is available at gains.iiasa.ac.at/Annex1.htm