Practical large-scale spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations

The last two decades have seen intense scientific and regulatory interest in the health effects of particulate matter (PM). Influential epidemiological studies that characterize chronic exposure of individuals rely on monitoring data that are sparse in space and time, so they often assign the same exposure to participants in large geographic areas and across time. We estimate monthly PM during 1988--2002 in a large spatial domain for use in studying health effects in the Nurses' Health Study. We develop a conceptually simple spatio-temporal model that uses a rich set of covariates. The model is used to estimate concentrations of $PM_{10}$ for the full time period and $PM_{2.5}$ for a subset of the period. For the earlier part of the period, 1988--1998, few $PM_{2.5}$ monitors were operating, so we develop a simple extension to the model that represents $PM_{2.5}$ conditionally on $PM_{10}$ model predictions. In the epidemiological analysis, model predictions of $PM_{10}$ are more strongly associated with health effects than when using simpler approaches to estimate exposure. Our modeling approach supports the application in estimating both fine-scale and large-scale spatial heterogeneity and capturing space--time interaction through the use of monthly-varying spatial surfaces. At the same time, the model is computationally feasible, implementable with standard software, and readily understandable to the scientific audience. Despite simplifying assumptions, the model has good predictive performance and uncertainty characterization.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS204 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Accelerometer and GPS Data to Analyze Built Environments and Physical Activity

Purpose: Most built environment studies have quantified characteristics of the areas around participants' homes. However, the environmental exposures for physical activity (PA) are spatially dynamic rather than static. Thus, merged accelerometer and global positioning system (GPS) data were utilized to estimate associations between the built environment and PA among adults. Methods: Participants (N = 142) were recruited on trails in Massachusetts and wore an accelerometer and GPS unit for 1-4 days. Two binary outcomes were created: moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA vs. light PA-to-sedentary); and light-to-vigorous PA (LVPA vs. sedentary). Five built environment variables were created within 50-meter buffers around GPS points: population density, street density, land use mix (LUM), greenness, and walkability index. Generalized linear mixed models were fit to examine associations between environmental variables and both outcomes, adjusting for demographic covariates. Results: Overall, in the fully adjusted models, greenness was positively associated with MVPA and LVPA (odds ratios [ORs] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.30 and 1.25, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.41, respectively). In contrast, street density and LUM were negatively associated with MVPA (ORs = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.71 and 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78, 0.97, respectively) and LVPA (ORs = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.77, 0.81 and 0.81, 95% CI = 0.74, 0.90, respectively). Negative associations of population density and walkability with both outcomes reached statistical significance, yet the effect sizes were small. Conclusions: Concurrent monitoring of activity with accelerometers and GPS units allowed us to investigate relationships between objectively measured built environment around GPS points and minute-by-minute PA. Negative relationships between street density and LUM and PA contrast evidence from most built environment studies in adults. However, direct comparisons should be made with caution since most previous studies have focused on spatially fixed buffers around home locations, rather than the precise locations where PA occurs

Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate air pollution in the conterminous United States using geographic and meteorological predictors

Background: Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) remains an important public health concern, although it remains difficult to quantify accurately across large geographic areas with sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent epidemiologic analyses have demonstrated the importance of spatially- and temporally-resolved exposure estimates, which show larger PM-mediated health effects as compared to nearest monitor or county-specific ambient concentrations. Methods: We developed generalized additive mixed models that describe regional and small-scale spatial and temporal gradients (and corresponding uncertainties) in monthly mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5), inhalable (PM10), and coarse mode particle mass (PM2.5–10) for the conterminous United States (U.S.). These models expand our previously developed models for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. by virtue of their larger spatial domain, their inclusion of an additional 5 years of PM data to develop predictions through 2007, and their use of refined geographic covariates for population density and point-source PM emissions. Covariate selection and model validation were performed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results: The PM2.5 models had high predictive accuracy (CV R2=0.77 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007). While model performance remained strong, the predictive ability of models for PM10 (CV R2=0.58 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007) and PM2.5–10 (CV R2=0.46 and 0.52 for 1988–1998 and 1999–2007, respectively) was somewhat lower. Regional variation was found in the effects of geographic and meteorological covariates. Models generally performed well in both urban and rural areas and across seasons, though predictive performance varied somewhat by region (CV R2=0.81, 0.81, 0.83, 0.72, 0.69, 0.50, and 0.60 for the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, Southcentral, Southwest, Northwest, and Central Plains regions, respectively, for PM2.5 from 1999–2007). Conclusions: Our models provide estimates of monthly-average outdoor concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and PM2.5–10 with high spatial resolution and low bias. Thus, these models are suitable for estimating chronic exposures of populations living in the conterminous U.S. from 1988 to 2007

Particulate Matter Air Pollution Exposure, Distance to Road, and Incident Lung Cancer in the Nurses’ Health Study Cohort

Background: A body of literature has suggested an elevated risk of lung cancer associated with particulate matter and traffic-related pollutants. Objective: We examined the relation of lung cancer incidence with long-term residential exposures to ambient particulate matter and residential distance to roadway, as a proxy for traffic-related exposures. Methods: For participants in the Nurses’ Health Study, a nationwide prospective cohort of women, we estimated 72-month average exposures to PM2.5, PM2.5–10, and PM10 and residential distance to road. Follow-up for incident cases of lung cancer occurred from 1994 through 2010. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for potential confounders. Effect modification by smoking status was examined. Results: During 1,510,027 person-years, 2,155 incident cases of lung cancer were observed among 103,650 participants. In fully adjusted models, a 10-μg/m3 increase in 72-month average PM10 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.14], PM2.5 (HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.25), or PM2.5–10 (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.20) was positively associated with lung cancer. When the cohort was restricted to never-smokers and to former smokers who had quit at least 10 years before, the associations appeared to increase and were strongest for PM2.5 (PM10: HR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.32; PM2.5: HR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.77; PM2.5–10: HR = 1.11; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.37). Results were most elevated when restricted to the most prevalent subtype, adenocarcinomas. Risks with roadway proximity were less consistent. Conclusions: Our findings support those from other studies indicating increased risk of incident lung cancer associated with ambient PM exposures, especially among never- and long-term former smokers. Citation: Puett RC, Hart JE, Yanosky JD, Spiegelman D, Wang M, Fisher JA, Hong B, Laden F. 2014. Particulate matter air pollution exposure, distance to road, and incident lung cancer in the Nurses’ Health Study Cohort. Environ Health Perspect 122:926–932; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.130749

Evaluating geographic imputation approaches for zip code level data: an application to a study of pediatric diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing interest in the study of place effects on health, facilitated in part by geographic information systems. Incomplete or missing address information reduces geocoding success. Several geographic imputation methods have been suggested to overcome this limitation. Accuracy evaluation of these methods can be focused at the level of individuals and at higher group-levels (e.g., spatial distribution).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the accuracy of eight geo-imputation methods for address allocation from ZIP codes to census tracts at the individual and group level. The spatial apportioning approaches underlying the imputation methods included four fixed (deterministic) and four random (stochastic) allocation methods using land area, total population, population under age 20, and race/ethnicity as weighting factors. Data included more than 2,000 geocoded cases of diabetes mellitus among youth aged 0-19 in four U.S. regions. The imputed distribution of cases across tracts was compared to the true distribution using a chi-squared statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the individual level, population-weighted (total or under age 20) fixed allocation showed the greatest level of accuracy, with correct census tract assignments averaging 30.01% across all regions, followed by the race/ethnicity-weighted random method (23.83%). The true distribution of cases across census tracts was that 58.2% of tracts exhibited no cases, 26.2% had one case, 9.5% had two cases, and less than 3% had three or more. This distribution was best captured by random allocation methods, with no significant differences (p-value > 0.90). However, significant differences in distributions based on fixed allocation methods were found (p-value < 0.0003).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fixed imputation methods seemed to yield greatest accuracy at the individual level, suggesting use for studies on area-level environmental exposures. Fixed methods result in artificial clusters in single census tracts. For studies focusing on spatial distribution of disease, random methods seemed superior, as they most closely replicated the true spatial distribution. When selecting an imputation approach, researchers should consider carefully the study aims.</p

Effect Modification of Long‐Term Air Pollution Exposures and the Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in US Women

Background: Ambient air pollution exposures have been frequently linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. However, less is known about the populations most susceptible to these adverse effects. Methods and Results: We assessed the associations of long‐term particulate matter (PM) exposures with incident CVD in a nationwide cohort of 114 537 women in the Nurses’ Health Study, and performed analyses to identify subpopulations at the greatest risk. Residential address level time‐varying monthly exposures to PM 2.5, PM 10, and PM 2.5 to 10 microns in diameter were estimated from spatio‐temporal prediction models. In multivariable models, increases in all size fractions of PM were associated with small, but not statistically significant, increased risks of total CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke. PM‐associated CVD risks were statistically significantly higher among women with diabetes as compared to those without (P‐for‐interaction <0.0001 for PM 10 and PM 2.5 and 0.007 for PM 2.5 to 10). For each 10 μg/m3 increase in 12‐month average PM 2.5, PM 2.5 to 10, and PM 10, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios were 1.44 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.68), 1.17 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.30), and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.10 to 1.28) among women with diabetes. There were also suggestions of higher risks among older (≥70 years) women, the obese, and those living in the Northeast and South. Smoking status and family history did not consistently modify the association between PM and CVD, and risks were most elevated with exposures in the previous 12 months. Conclusions: In this nationwide cohort, women with diabetes were identified as the subpopulation most sensitive to the adverse cardiovascular health effects of PM

Relationships Between the Built Environment and Walking and Weight Status Among Older Women in Three U.S. States

There are few studies of built environment associations with physical activity and weight status among older women in large geographic areas that use individual residential buffers to define environmental exposures. Among 23,434 women (70.0±6.9 years; range = 57-85) in 3 states, relationships between objective built environment variables and meeting physical activity recommendations via walking and weight status were examined. Differences in associations by population density and state were explored in stratified models. Population density (odds ratio (OR)=1.04 [1.02,1.07]), intersection density (ORs=1.18-1.28), and facility density (ORs=1.01-1.53) were positively associated with walking. Density of physical activity facilities was inversely associated with overweight/obesity (OR=0.69 [0.49, 0.96]). The strongest associations between facility density variables and both outcomes were found among women from higher population density areas. There was no clear pattern of differences in associations across states. Among older women, relationships between accessible facilities and walking may be most important in more densely populated settings

Particulate Matter Exposures, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Disease in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study

Background: The association of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes with air pollution exposures has been well established in the literature. The number of studies examining chronic exposures in cohorts is growing, with more recent studies conducted among women finding risk estimates of greater magnitude. Questions remain regarding sex differences in the relationship of chronic particulate matter (PM) exposures with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes

Exposure to Traffic Pollution and Increased Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic systemic inflammatory disease that affects approximately 1% of the adult population, and to date, genetic factors explain < 50% of the risk. Particulate air pollution, especially of traffic origin, has been linked to systemic inflammation in many studies. Objectives: We examined the association of distance to road, a marker of traffic pollution exposure, and incidence of RA in a prospective cohort study.Methods We studied 90,297 U.S. women in the Nurses’ Health Study. We used a geographic information system to determine distance to road at the residence in 2000 as a measure of traffic exposure. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we examined the association of distance to road and incident RA (1976–2004) with adjustment for a large number of potential confounders. Results: In models adjusted for age, calendar year, race, cigarette smoking, parity, lactation, menopausal status and hormone use, oral contraceptive use, body mass index, physical activity, and census-tract-level median income and house value, we observed an elevated risk of RA [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98–1.74] in women living within 50 m of a road, compared with those women living 200 m or farther away. We also observed this association in analyses among nonsmokers (HR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.04–2.52), nonsmokers with rheumatoid factor (RF)-negative RA (HR = 1.77; 95% CI, 0.93–3.38), and nonsmokers with RF-positive RA (HR = 1.51; 95% CI, 0.82–2.77). We saw no elevations in risk in women living 50–200 m from the road. Conclusions: The observed association between exposure to traffic pollution and RA suggests that pollution from traffic in adulthood may be a newly identified environmental risk factor for RA