Robust Classification for Imprecise Environments

In real-world environments it usually is difficult to specify target operating conditions precisely, for example, target misclassification costs. This uncertainty makes building robust classification systems problematic. We show that it is possible to build a hybrid classifier that will perform at least as well as the best available classifier for any target conditions. In some cases, the performance of the hybrid actually can surpass that of the best known classifier. This robust performance extends across a wide variety of comparison frameworks, including the optimization of metrics such as accuracy, expected cost, lift, precision, recall, and workforce utilization. The hybrid also is efficient to build, to store, and to update. The hybrid is based on a method for the comparison of classifier performance that is robust to imprecise class distributions and misclassification costs. The ROC convex hull (ROCCH) method combines techniques from ROC analysis, decision analysis and computational geometry, and adapts them to the particulars of analyzing learned classifiers. The method is efficient and incremental, minimizes the management of classifier performance data, and allows for clear visual comparisons and sensitivity analyses. Finally, we point to empirical evidence that a robust hybrid classifier indeed is needed for many real-world problems.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures. To be published in Machine Learning Journal. For related papers, see http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Tom_Fawcett/ROCCH

Geo-Social Targeting for Privacy-friendly Mobile Advertising: Position Paper

This position paper is about methods for effective, privacy-friendly mobile advertising. Specifically, we propose a new social-targeting design for using consumer location data from mobile devices (smart phones, smart pads, laptops, etc.) to target advertisements in a manner that is both effective and privacy friendly. This paper introduces the main concepts, provides theoretical background and ties to the literature, presents the design itself, and discusses applications.NYU Stern and Coriolis Lab

Machine Learning from Imbalanced Data Sets 101

Invited paper for the AAAI'2000 Workshop on Imbalanced Data Sets.For research to progress most effectively, we first should establish common ground regarding just what is the problem that imbalanced data sets present to machine learning systems. Why and when should imbalanced data sets be problematic? When is the problem simply an artifact of easily rectified design choices? I will try to pick the low-hanging fruit and share them with the rest of the workshop participants. Specifically, I would like to discuss what the problem is not. I hope this will lead to a profitable discussion of what the problem indeed is, and how it might be addressed most effectively.NYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc

Explaining Data-Driven Decisions made by AI Systems: The Counterfactual Approach

We examine counterfactual explanations for explaining the decisions made by model-based AI systems. The counterfactual approach we consider defines an explanation as a set of the system's data inputs that causally drives the decision (i.e., changing the inputs in the set changes the decision) and is irreducible (i.e., changing any subset of the inputs does not change the decision). We (1) demonstrate how this framework may be used to provide explanations for decisions made by general, data-driven AI systems that may incorporate features with arbitrary data types and multiple predictive models, and (2) propose a heuristic procedure to find the most useful explanations depending on the context. We then contrast counterfactual explanations with methods that explain model predictions by weighting features according to their importance (e.g., SHAP, LIME) and present two fundamental reasons why we should carefully consider whether importance-weight explanations are well-suited to explain system decisions. Specifically, we show that (i) features that have a large importance weight for a model prediction may not affect the corresponding decision, and (ii) importance weights are insufficient to communicate whether and how features influence decisions. We demonstrate this with several concise examples and three detailed case studies that compare the counterfactual approach with SHAP to illustrate various conditions under which counterfactual explanations explain data-driven decisions better than importance weights

Dimensionality Reduction via Matrix Factorization for Predictive Modeling from Large, Sparse Behavioral Data

Matrix factorization is a popular technique for engineering features for use in predictive models; it is viewed as a key part of the predictive analytics process and is used in many different domain areas. The purpose of this paper is to investigate matrix-factorization-based dimensionality reduction as a design artifact in predictive analytics. With the rise in availability of large amounts of sparse behavioral data, this investigation comes at a time when traditional techniques must be reevaluated. Our contribution is based on two lines of inquiry: we survey the literature on dimensionality reduction in predictive analytics, and we undertake an experimental evaluation comparing using dimensionality reduction versus not using dimensionality reduction for predictive modeling from large, sparse behavioral data. Our survey of the dimensionality reduction literature reveals that, despite mixed empirical evidence as to the benefit of computing dimensionality reduction, it is frequently applied in predictive modeling research and application without either comparing to a model built using the full feature set or utilizing state-of-the-art predictive modeling techniques for complexity control. This presents a concern, as the survey reveals complexity control as one of the main reasons for employing dimensionality reduction. This lack of comparison is troubling in light of our empirical results. We experimentally evaluate the e cacy of dimensionality reduction in the context of a collection of predictive modeling problems from a large-scale published study. We find that utilizing dimensionality reduction improves predictive performance only under certain, rather narrow, conditions. Specifically, under default regularization (complexity control)settings dimensionality reduction helps for the more di cult predictive problems (where the predictive performance of a model built using the original feature set is relatively lower), but it actually decreases the performance on the easier problems. More surprisingly, employing state-of-the-art methods for selecting regularization parameters actually eliminates any advantage that dimensionality reduction has! Since the value of building accurate predictive models for business analytics applications has been well-established, the resulting guidelines for the application of dimensionality reduction should lead to better research and managerial decisions.NYU Stern School of Busines

Enhancing Transparency and Control when Drawing Data-Driven Inferences about Individuals

Recent studies have shown that information disclosed on social network sites (such as Facebook) can be used to predict personal characteristics with surprisingly high accuracy. In this paper we examine a method to give online users transparency into why certain inferences are made about them by statistical models, and control to inhibit those inferences by hiding ("cloaking") certain personal information from inference. We use this method to examine whether such transparency and control would be a reasonable goal by assessing how difficult it would be for users to actually inhibit inferences. Applying the method to data from a large collection of real users on Facebook, we show that a user must cloak only a small portion of her Facebook Likes in order to inhibit inferences about their personal characteristics. However, we also show that in response a firm could change its modeling of users to make cloaking more difficult.Comment: presented at 2016 ICML Workshop on Human Interpretability in Machine Learning (WHI 2016), New York, N

Distribution-based aggregation for relational learning with identifier attributes

Identifier attributes—very high-dimensional categorical attributes such as particular product ids or people’s names—rarely are incorporated in statistical modeling. However, they can play an important role in relational modeling: it may be informative to have communicated with a particular set of people or to have purchased a particular set of products. A key limitation of existing relational modeling techniques is how they aggregate bags (multisets) of values from related entities. The aggregations used by existing methods are simple summaries of the distributions of features of related entities: e.g., MEAN, MODE, SUM, or COUNT. This paper’s main contribution is the introduction of aggregation operators that capture more information about the value distributions, by storing meta-data about value distributions and referencing this meta-data when aggregating—for example by computing class-conditional distributional distances. Such aggregations are particularly important for aggregating values from high-dimensional categorical attributes, for which the simple aggregates provide little information. In the first half of the paper we provide general guidelines for designing aggregation operators, introduce the new aggregators in the context of the relational learning system ACORA (Automated Construction of Relational Attributes), and provide theoretical justification.We also conjecture special properties of identifier attributes, e.g., they proxy for unobserved attributes and for information deeper in the relationship network. In the second half of the paper we provide extensive empirical evidence that the distribution-based aggregators indeed do facilitate modeling with high-dimensional categorical attributes, and in support of the aforementioned conjectures.NYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc

Modeling Complex Networks For (Electronic) Commerce

NYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc

Classification in Networked Data: A Toolkit and a Univariate Case Study

This paper1 is about classifying entities that are interlinked with entities for which the class is known. After surveying prior work, we present NetKit, a modular toolkit for classification in networked data, and a case-study of its application to networked data used in prior machine learning research. NetKit is based on a node-centric framework in which classifiers comprise a local classifier, a relational classifier, and a collective inference procedure. Various existing node-centric relational learning algorithms can be instantiated with appropriate choices for these components, and new combinations of components realize new algorithms. The case study focuses on univariate network classification, for which the only information used is the structure of class linkage in the network (i.e., only links and some class labels). To our knowledge, no work previously has evaluated systematically the power of class-linkage alone for classification in machine learning benchmark data sets. The results demonstrate that very simple network-classification models perform quite well—well enough that they should be used regularly as baseline classifiers for studies of learning with networked data. The simplest method (which performs remarkably well) highlights the close correspondence between several existing methods introduced for different purposes—that is, Gaussian-field classifiers, Hopfield networks, and relational-neighbor classifiers. The case study also shows that there are two sets of techniques that are preferable in different situations, namely when few versus many labels are known initially. We also demonstrate that link selection plays an important role similar to traditional feature selectionNYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc