Essays on the Estimation of Marketing Models and the Derivation of Management Implications

Die vorliegende kumulative Dissertation ist im Rahmen der Tätigkeit am Lehrstuhl für Innovation, Neue Medien und Marketing bei Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Sönke Albers entstanden. Die drei Schwerpunkte des Lehrstuhls finden sich auch in den sechs Fachartikeln dieser Dissertation wieder. Grundsätzlich lassen sich die Artikel zwei Themengebieten zuordnen: Das erste Thema ist die Schätzung von Marketing-Modellen. Zu diesem Bereich gehören der methodischer Beitrag „Schätzung von Marketing-Modellen mit simulationsbasierten Verfahren“, sowie die ersten beiden empirischen Artikel, „Choosing Response Models for Budget Allocation in Heterogeneous and Dynamic Markets: Why Simple Sometimes Does Better“ und „Gütemaße der logistischen Regression bei unbalancierten Stichproben“. Der zweite Themenblock umfasst die Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen für Innovationen und Medienprodukte auf der Basis empirischer Analysen und besteht aus drei empirischen Artikeln, „Are Fake Campaigns Really Needed for Winning Creative Awards?“, „Do Critics Make Bestsellers? Opinion Leaders and the Success of Books“ und „Marketing Consumer Durables in Mature Product Categories – Do Innovators Matter?

Faking or Convincing: Why Do Some Advertising Campaigns Win Creativity Awards?

Since the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed in 2002, it has become commonplace in the advertising industry to use creativity-award-show prizes instead of gross income figures to attract new customers. Therefore, achieving a top creativity ranking and winning creativity awards have become high priorities in the advertising industry. Agencies and marketers have always wondered what elements in the advertising creation process would lead to the winning of creativity awards. Although this debate has been dominated by pure speculation about the success of different routines, approaches and strategies in winning creativity awards, for the first time our study delivers an empirical insight into the key drivers of creativity award success. We investigate what strategies and which elements of an advertising campaign are truly likely to lead to winning the maximum number of creativity awards. Using a sample of 108 campaigns, we identify factors that influence campaign success at international advertising award shows. We identify innovativeness and the integration of multiple channels as the key drivers of creativity award success. In contrast to industry beliefs, meaningful or personally connecting approaches do not seem to generate a significant benefit in terms of winning creativity awards. Finally, our data suggest that the use of so-called “fake campaigns” to win more creativity awards does not prove to be effective

Repeat Purchasers and the Diffusion of Electronic Products: Does Consumer Innovativeness Matter?

Despite the enormous economic importance of consumer durable repeat purchases they have been largely neglected in the diffusion of innovations research. Only a handful of studies have examined the drivers of replacement timing of durables. We extend this research in two important ways. Based on a large survey of 8,077 households, we demonstrate that consumer innovativeness, the most prominent driver of adoption, also influences repeat purchase timing. Further, we investigate for the first time the drivers of additional unit purchase timing

Repeat Purchasers and the Diffusion of Electronic Products: Does Consumer Innovativeness Matter?

Despite the enormous economic importance of consumer durable repeat purchases they have been largely neglected in the diffusion of innovations research. Only a handful of studies have examined the drivers of replacement timing of durables. We extend this research in two important ways. Based on a large survey of 8,077 households, we demonstrate that consumer innovativeness, the most prominent driver of adoption, also influences repeat purchase timing. Further, we investigate for the first time the drivers of additional unit purchase timing

Do Critics Make Bestsellers? Opinion Leaders and the Success of Books

Because hedonic aspects of products are difficult to evaluate prior to consumption, consumers seek signals to reduce their uncertainty. Opinion leaders, such as critics, may serve as key informants to consumers. This study considers the different roles and incentives of literary critics and how they influence the success of books. Furthermore, it empirically investigates the impact of 4 book critics featured on Germany's most popular literary television show, Das Literarische Quartett, on reviewed books' success. The variety of control variables included in the mixed regression models provide results pertaining to not only the critics, but also the success factors of books in general. Book success does not depend primarily on the mere appearance of a book on a television show or a favorable review of it; rather, awareness and word-of-mouth effects seem crucial, and books are more likely to succeed if critics disagree about the quality and express extreme judgments, even if those judgments are negative.