Computer trading and systemic risk: a nuclear perspective

Financial markets have evolved to become complex adaptive systems highly reliant on the communication speeds and processing power afforded by digital systems. Their failure could cause severe disruption to the provision of financial services and possibly the wider economy. In this study we consider whether a perspective from the nuclear industry can provide additional insights

Pluri-Canonical Models of Supersymmetric Curves

This paper is about pluri-canonical models of supersymmetric (susy) curves. Susy curves are generalisations of Riemann surfaces in the realm of super geometry. Their moduli space is a key object in supersymmetric string theory. We study the pluri-canonical models of a susy curve, and we make some considerations about Hilbert schemes and moduli spaces of susy curves.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the intensive period "Perspectives in Lie Algebras", held at the CRM Ennio De Giorgi, Pisa, Italy, 201

The Self-Calibrating Hubble Diagram

As an increasing number of well measured type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) become available, the statistical uncertainty on w has been reduced to the same size as the systematic uncertainty. The statistical error will decrease further in the near future, and hence the improvement of systematic uncertainties needs to be addressed, if further progress is to be made. We study how uncertainties in the primary reference spectrum - which are a main contribution to the systematic uncertainty budget - affect the measurement of the Dark Energy equation of state parameter w from SNe Ia. The increasing number of SN observations can be used to reduce the uncertainties by including perturbations of the reference spectrum as nuisance parameters in a cosmology fit, thus "self-calibrating" the Hubble diagram. We employ this method to real SNe data for the first time and find the perturbations of the reference spectrum consistent with zero at the 1%-level. For future surveys we estimate that ~3500 SNe will be required for our method to outperform the standard method of deriving the cosmological parameters.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, 1 table. Update to revised version accepted for publication in JCA

Virtual outreach: economic evaluation of joint teleconsultations for patients referred by their general practitioner for a specialist opinion

Objectives To test the hypotheses that, compared with conventional outpatient consultations, joint teleconsultation (virtual outreach) would incur no increased costs to the NHS, reduce costs to patients, and reduce absences from work by patients and their carers.Design Cost consequences study alongside randomised controlled trial.Setting Two hospitals in London and Shrewsbury and 29 general practices in inner London and Wales.Participants 3170 patients identified; 2094 eligible for inclusion and willing to participate. 1051 randomised to virtual outreach and 1043 to standard outpatient appointments.Main outcome measures NHS costs, patient costs, health status (SF-12), time spent attending index consultation, patient satisfaction.Results Overall six month costs were greater for the virtual outreach consultations (pound724 per patient) than for conventional outpatient appointments (pound625): difference in means pound99 ($162; is not an element of138) (95% confidence interval pound10 to pound187, P=0.03). if the analysis is restricted to resource items deemed "attributable" to the index consultation, six month costs were still greater for virtual outreach: difference in means pound108 (pound73 to pound142, P < 0.0001). In both analyses the index consultation accounted for the excess cost. Savings to patients in terms of costs and time occurred in both centres: difference in mean total patient cost 8 pound (5 pound to 10 pound, P < 0.0001). Loss of productive time was less in the virtual outreach group: difference in mean cost pound11 (pound10 to pound12, P < 0.0001).Condusion The main hypothesis that virtual outreach would be cost neutral is rejected, but the hypotheses that costs to patients and losses in productivity would be lower are supported

Investigating dark energy experiments with principal components

We use a principal component approach to contrast different kinds of probes of dark energy, and to emphasize how an array of probes can work together to constrain an arbitrary equation of state history w(z). We pay particular attention to the role of the priors in assessing the information content of experiments and propose using an explicit prior on the degree of smoothness of w(z) that is independent of the binning scheme. We also show how a figure of merit based on the mean squared error probes the number of new modes constrained by a data set, and use it to examine how informative various experiments will be in constraining the evolution of dark energy.Comment: A significantly expanded version with an added PCA for weak lensing, a new detailed discussion of the correlation prior proposed in this work, and a new discussion outlining the differences between the Bayesian and the frequentist approaches to reconstructing w(z). Matches the version accepted to JCAP. 8 pages, 2 figure

Infrared Imaging of the Gravitational Lens PG 1115+080 with the Subaru Telescope

We present high spatial resolution images of the gravitational-lens system PG 1115+080 taken with the near-infrared camera (CISCO) on the Subaru telescope. The FWHM of the combined image is $0.''32$ in the $K'$-band, yielding spatial resolution of $0.''14$ after a deconvolution procedure. This is a first detection of an extended emission adjacent to the A1/A2 components, indicating the presence of a fairly bright emission region with a characteristic angular radius of $\sim$ 5 mas (40 pc). The near-infrared image of the Einstein ring was extracted in both the $J$ and $K'$ bands. The $J-K'$ color is found to be significantly redder than that of a synthetic model galaxy with an age of 3 Gyr, the age of the universe at the quasar redshift.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in PASJ(2000