US HFCS Price Forecasting Using Seasonal ARIMA Model

This paper focuses on forecasting US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) prices using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. We use both monthly and quarterly data to forecast HFCS prices for the 1994–2015 period. We perform the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test for ensuring that the HFCS prices are stationary. We use mean absolute error, in–sample root mean square error, and out–of–sample root mean square error for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the models. Based on the out–of–sample performance, we found that the quarterly model performed well in predicting HFCS prices compared to monthly model. The results will help make better decision concerning the operation of corn-wet milling plant and HFCS production

The United States Sweetener Excise Tax Policy Analysis

The United States accounts for one of the highest per-capita caloric sweetener consumption in the world. The American Heart Association recommends a maximum of around 6 to 9 teaspoons of per-capita sweetener consumption per day (equivalent to 23.8 pounds to 35.71 pounds per-capita, per year). The current US per-capita sweetener consumption is approximately 19 teaspoons/day. This high sweetener consumption is often linked to major health ailments such as obesity, Type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. This study uses a supply and demand framework to evaluate the amount of excise tax on major sweeteners (sugar and high fructose corn syrup) sufficient to reduce excess sweetener consumption to the recommended level. Results suggest a maximum consumer tax of 12 cents per pound on both sugar and HFCS sufficient to reduce consumption to the recommended level. Also, a maximum producer tax of 25 cents per pound on sugar and 95 cents per pound on HFCS is suggested to reduce consumption to the recommended level

Sweeteners May Leave a Sour Note on NAFTA Renegotiations

Historically, the sweetener trade between the United States and Mexico has been mired in disputes. These disputes are the result of competing economic and political interests of each country’s sugar and corn refiners’ associations. This article highlights potential issues surrounding sweetener trade in the NAFTA renegotiation

Blockchain Technology in International Commodity Trading

A blockchain is a distributed, public or private digital ledger that uses cryptography to record transactions across computer networks to prevent records from being altered retrospectively. This paper illustrates the impact of blockchain technology on total cost, time, and risk in international commodity trading using a hypothetical case of soybean trade from Jamestown, North Dakota, to China. The results suggest that the savings include 2.3 cents per bushel of soybeans and a 41 percent reduction in the total time, including documentation and transit time. Further, the 5 percent value-at-risk model shows a reduction of 2.6 cents per bushel of soybeans traded using blockchain technology. These results are significant for agribusinesses and other agricultural stakeholders who are evaluating the benefit of adopting blockchain technology in international commodity trading

U.S. Sweetener Demand Analysis: A QUAIDS Model Application

We estimate the expenditure, price, and Engel parameters for the major U.S. caloric sweeteners (sugar, high-fructose corn syrup [HFCS], and glucose), for the 1975–2013 period using the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS). The estimated parameters are then used to compute expenditure elasticities and both uncompensated and compensated price elasticities. We find that consumer expenditures are positively elastic for both sugar and HFCS but not for glucose. The own-price elasticity of demand for sugar is less elastic compared to those of HFCS and glucose. Our results will help design an effective U.S. sweetener tax policy