A New Productivity Strategy for Europe. Bertelsmann Stiftung Inclusive Growth for Europe Policy Paper April 2020.

Europe has a productivity problem. In recent years, pro- ductivity growth in many European economies has sys- tematically slowed down and regional differences have widened. The slowdown is connected to decreasing com- petitiveness, fewer prospects for growth and shrinking opportunities for redistribution. Moreover, diverging changes in productivity within the EU endanger the eco- nomic and, ultimately, political stability of the common economic and monetary area. As a result of the current crisis situation, the productivity problem, which up to now has been of subordinate importance in politics, could pose particular challenges for economic policy. Economic policy measures must have a stimulating effect on the business cycle and at the same time always aim to increase productivity. What policies and instruments can reverse the trend and increase long-term productivity in Europe? This paper proposes nine points for a new productivity strategy in Europe. The main pillars of this strategy are: a substan- tially stronger innovation policy, the targeted promotion of technology diffusion and comprehensive, sustainable investments in the future

Revenue elasticities in euro area countries

Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic – instead of the currently used static – elasticities in euro area countries. Applying country-specific error correction models we reveal important differences across countries. For a majority of euro area Member States we find evidence for dynamic revenue elasticities. We show that the application of such dynamic elasticities could substantially reduce forecast errors in several countries – with the evidence being stronger based on ex-post than based on real-time data

Fiscal policy over the business cycle in Germany - a tale in three acts. Evidence from a time-varying VAR analysis 1970-2008

Large parts of the empirical economic literature state that policy makers have ex-post proven to be unable to time fiscal policy measures countercyclically. In this paper we expand the usually applied empirical approaches and allow for changing reaction patterns over time by employing not only VAR- but as well time-varying parameter VAR estimation techniques on quarterly fiscal data for Germany from 1970-2008. Our analysis shows not a general a-cyclical pattern but three distinct phases of different fiscal policy timing indicating possible misspecifications of time-invariant analyses

The Timing and Responsiveness of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle in Germany

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the timing and sensitivity of fiscal policy over the business cycle in Germany. Employing structural vector autoregressions with time-varying transmission parameters, we find that the responsiveness of the fiscal balance to output gap shocks varied substantially over the last decades. Combining output gap and fiscal balance reactions reveals three distinct fiscal regimes that gradually flow into each other. Increasing countercyclical reactions can be observed in the 1970s. This is followed by almost two decades of decreasing short-term but increasing medium-term countercylicality. A third regime is characterized by further decreases of the short-termcountercyclicality, while fiscal policy turns acyclical in the medium-term perspective. Additional analyses show, that especially changes in the degree of trade openness and the employment ratio, along with the adoption of stronger inflation targeting have driven the decline of the sensitivity of German public finances

Earth observation-based disaggregation of exposure data for earthquake loss modeling

We use TanDEM-X and Sentinel-2 observations to disaggregate earthquake risk-related exposure data. We use the refined exposure data and model earthquake loss. Results for the city of Santiago de Chile show that earthquake risk has been underestimated before due to aggregated exposure data

Earth observation-based disaggregation of exposure data for earthquake loss modelling

We use TanDEM-X and Sentinel-2 observations to disaggregate earthquake risk-related exposure data. We use the refined exposure data and model earthquake loss. Results for the city of Santiago de Chile show that earthquake risk has been underestimated before due to aggregated exposure data

Benefits of global earth observation missions for disaggregation of exposure data and earthquake loss modeling: evidence from Santiago de Chile

Exposure is an essential component of risk models and describes elements that are endangered by a hazard and susceptible to damage. The associated vulnerability characterizes the likelihood of experiencing damage (which can translate into losses) at a certain level of hazard intensity. Frequently, the compilation of exposure information is the costliest component (in terms of time and labor) of risk assessment procedures. Existing models often describe exposure in an aggregated manner, e.g., by relying on statistical/census data for given administrative entities. Nowadays, earth observation techniques allow the collection of spatially continuous information for large geographic areas while enabling a high geometric and temporal resolution. Consequently, we exploit measurements from the earth observation missions TanDEM-X and Sentinel-2, which collect data on a global scale, to characterize the built environment in terms of constituting morphologic properties, namely built-up density and height. Subsequently, we use this information to constrain existing exposure data in a spatial disaggregation approach. Thereby, we establish dasymetric methods for disaggregation. The results are presented for the city of Santiago de Chile, which is prone to natural hazards such as earthquakes. We present loss estimations due to seismic ground shaking and corresponding sensitivity as a function of the resolution properties of the exposure data used in the model. The experimental results underline the benefits of deploying modern earth observation technologies for refined exposure mapping and related earthquake loss estimation with enhanced accuracy properties

Datendisaggregationstechniken für die Expositionsmodellierung - Vorzüge von Erdbeobachtungsdaten für die Analyse des Erdbebenrisikos in Santiago de Chile, Chile

Die Zahl der weltweit von Naturkatastrophen betroffenen Menschen unterliegt genauso wie die Höhe der daraus hervorgehenden Schäden einem aufsteigenden Trend (GuhaSapir et al. 2017; FitzGerald et al. 2017; Boccard 2018). Als Antwort auf diese negative Entwicklung bedarf es umfassende Forschung zu den Auswirkungen von Naturgefahren auf bewohnte Gebiete. Diese Arbeit trägt ihren Teil dazu bei, indem Methoden zur Optimierung von Expositionsmodellen entwickelt werden. Dazu werden fortschrittliche Erdbeobachtungsdaten genutzt, um die räumliche Auflösung der Expositionsdaten durch unterschiedliche Disaggregationstechniken zu verbessern. Das Ergebnis dieser Arbeit ist ein automatisiertes Modell, dass für das Untersuchungsgebiet Santiago de Chile die Auflösung eines bestehenden Gebäudeexpositionsmodelles von der Stadtteilebene auf 500 x 500 Meter-Gridzellen disaggregiert und darauf basierend das Erdbebenrisiko berechnet. Überprüfungen der Genauigkeit ergeben hohe Übereinstimmungen der Expositionsdaten mit der Realität. Tests zur Anwendung des Modells auf andere Regionen verlaufen positiv. Die Ergebnisse der Risikoanalyse ermöglichen wesentlich detailliertere Erkenntnisse über die Verteilung des Erdbebenrisikos in Santiago de Chile, die zuvor nicht möglich gewesen wären. Damit stellt diese Arbeit ein weiteres Mal die Vorzüge von Erdbeobachtungsdaten für die Modellierung von Expositionsdaten und das dadurch gewonnene Potenzial für Risikoanalysen dar

Das dynamische Verhalten von Axialstrahl-Diffusionsflammen und dessen Bedeutung fuer selbsterregte Brennkammerschwingungen

SIGLEAvailable from the library of Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (DE) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren?

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss lag 2016 deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 6% im Makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichtsverfahren der EU-Kommission. Dies wird sich so schnell auch nicht ändern. Daher fordern Ökonomen, aber auch der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Binnennachfrage mit Mitteln der Finanzpolitik zu erhöhen. Unter Verwendung eines makroökonometrischen Weltwirtschaftsmodells untersucht der Autor, welchen Einfluss konkrete finanzpolitische Maßnahmen auf die Entwicklung von Bruttoinlandsprodukt und Leistungsbilanz in Deutschland und in der restlichen Eurozone haben könnten. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die internationalen Übertragungseffekte eher gering sind. Um die 6%-Schwelle zu unterschreiten, wäre zudem ein immenses fiskalisches Volumen erforderlich, und die Auswirkungen der temporären Fiskalmaßnahmen auf die öffentliche Verschuldung Deutschlands wären dauerhaft.Can an expansive fiscal policy help to reduce Germany's current account surplus while simultaneously creating positive spillover effects for the eurozone? If yes, what amount of measures would be required in order to bring the current account surplus below the 6% of GDP threshold specified in the EU Commission's macroeconomic imbalance procedure? An analysis based on a global macroeconometric model shows that fiscal policy measures could reduce Germany's surplus. The positive spillovers for the eurozone would be relatively small, however, while a huge amount of fiscal stimuli would be required to reach the 6% threshold. In addition, there would be a lasting increase in Germany's public debt