The Effects of Life Expectancy on Fiji's Output: A Time Series Approach from 1970 to 2002

Compared to several cross-country studies on the determinants of growth, time series approaches are relatively few and limited in scope. However, time series studies are useful for country-specific policies. But in the recent time series works, with a few exceptions, ad hoc specifications of output and growth equations are used. This paper examines the specification and estimation issues in the time series approach to the determinants of output. Our approach is used to measure the effects of health on the output of Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002.The Solow Growth Model, Production Function, General to Specific Approach, Effects of Health on Output.

Small states, big problems, small solutions from big countries

Several studies suggest that growth constraints in small states are not different from others and therefore they do not require special attention. In this article, we argue that this may not be so and therefore, the developed countries and donor agencies may have to reconsider special and differential treatments within the provisions of the WTO and establish a sustainable provision for small economies. Our analysis show that although trade liberalization provides positive stimulus for growth, small states endure high cost of doing business which have escalated following the withdrawal of differential treatments and this has had implications on small states performances. Further, these economies have been facing negative trade effects especially in the post–1995 period. Therefore, we suggest that small states have a strong case to argue for continued support in the form of adjustment and adaptation funds in order to develop institutions, infrastructure, capacity and competitive domestic exports

Forecasting Tala-AUD and Tala - USD exchange rates with ANN

The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD

Creativity and innovation in education: Fiji’s future

The theme of your conference “Creativity and Innovation in Education: Fiji’s Future” for 2012 is critically important and one that reflects new thinking that needs to go into making future education policies in Fiji. Let me briefly go back into history before I delve into the issue of creativity and innovation in education and what that means for the future of Fiji

Crisis of conscience

The University of the South Pacific has become the centre of excellence in the region, as indeed any university of USP’s nature should be. Apart from teaching and research, the university has in many ways become the critical conscience of the region

Trading preferences and protection - is it good for Pacific Island countries?

The trade policy agenda in Pacific Island Countries (PICs) has certainly become crowded, as the cast of players involved in regional trade politics and negotiations has become larger. In fact it is commonplace around the world that players such as commercial firms, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and international bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO) are becoming actively involved in trade negotiations at the regional level. Consequently apart from the state, other voices are exerting attention-grabbing influence in the conduct of regional trade politics. While firms have always played an important role, the rise of NGOs proclaiming that they are acting in the interests of society presents an additional challenge in the move towards a more liberal trading system. The demonstrations by NGOs at the WTO Ministerial Conferences in Singapore (1996), Geneva (1998) and the US (1999) are well known. It is also well known that such huge interest from NGOs led the then Director-General of WTO, Renato Ruggiero, to announce an enhanced plan for cooperation with NGOs (WTO, 1998). Penjueli and Morgan (2010) argue that a regional trade agreement of PICs such as the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) Plus would not meet the needs of the PICs and that such an agreement would displace ‘. . . domestic production and imports from other countries and [add] further to the considerable trade imbalances [of] many Pacific countries’ (p. 219). The authors of this article represent the Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG), a Suva based NGO. The article is in fact a response to an earlier article by Kaufmann (2009) justifying the benefits to PICs of signing PACER Plus with Australia and New Zealand. The crux of the argument by Penjueli and Morgan (2010) rests on the basic idea that a preferential trade agreement (PTA) like PACER Plus would not meet the needs of the PICs. In this paper we argue that the lines of reasoning both Kaufmann (2009) and Penjueli and Morgan (2010) have used are flawed. The paper disagrees with Kaufmann (2009) that an agreement with Australia and New Zealand will bring maximum benefits to PICs and questions the basic issue raised by Penjueli and Morgan (2010) and PANG. From the publications of PANG it is unclear whether it supports unilateral trade liberalisation, although its opposition to a regional trade agreement among PICs and Australia and New Zealand is obvious. While we agree with the opposition to such a trade agreement, the reasons PANG argues cannot go unchallenged. Such reasons could prove to be seriously detrimental if carried over to challenge unilateral liberalisation, which seems most likely to be the case for opponents of free trade. Most of the arguments raised by PANG wrap themselves up in the language of job preservation, national sovereignty and infant industries. It seems that PANG and law professor Jane Kelsey, the key author of its various reports (2004a and 2004b) ignore the logic of the economic case for free trade and as a consequence, end up revealing the old and now discarded mercantilist rules