Impact of Anomalous Active Regions on the Large-scale Magnetic Field of the Sun

One of the major sources of perturbation in the solar cycle amplitude is believed to be the emergence of anomalous active regions which do not obey Hale's polarity law and Joy's law of tilt angles. Anomalous regions containing high magnetic flux that disproportionately impact the polar field are sometimes referred to as "rogue regions". In this study -- utilizing a surface flux transport model -- we analyze the large-scale dipole moment build-up due to the emergence of anomalous active regions on the solar surface. Although these active regions comprise a small fraction of the total sunspot number, they can substantially influence the magnetic dipole moment build-up and subsequent solar cycle amplitude. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that the impact of "Anti-Joy" regions on the solar cycle is similar to those of "Anti-Hale" regions. We also find that the emergence time, emergence latitude, relative number and flux distribution of anomalous regions influence the large-scale magnetic field dynamics in diverse ways. We establish that the results of our numerical study are consistent with the algebraic (analytic) approach to explaining the Sun's dipole moment evolution. Our results are relevant for understanding how anomalous active regions modulate the Sun's large-scale dipole moment build-up and its reversal timing within the framework of the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism -- now believed to be the primary source of solar cycle variations

Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions

The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic solar-stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass ejections act as transient perturbations giving rise to hazardous space weather. Magnetic fields – the primary driver of solar-stellar activity – are created via a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism within stellar convection zones. The dynamo mechanism in our host star – the Sun – is manifest in the cyclic appearance of magnetized sunspots on the solar surface. While sunspots have been directly observed for over four centuries, and theories of the origin of solar-stellar magnetism have been explored for over half a century, the inability to converge on the exact mechanism(s) governing cycle to cycle fluctuations and inconsistent predictions for the strength of future sunspot cycles have been challenging for models of the solar cycles. This review discusses observational constraints on the solar magnetic cycle with a focus on those relevant for cycle forecasting, elucidates recent physical insights which aid in understanding solar cycle variability, and presents advances in solar cycle predictions achieved via data-driven, physics-based models. The most successful prediction approaches support the Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo mechanism as the primary driver of solar cycle variability and reinforce the flux transport paradigm as a useful tool for modelling solar-stellar magnetism

Prediction of the Sun's Coronal Magnetic Field and Forward-modeled Polarization Characteristics for the 2019 July 2 Total Solar Eclipse

On 2019 July 2 a total solar eclipse—visible across parts of the Southern Pacific Ocean, Chile, and Argentina—enabled observations of the Sun's corona. The structure and emission characteristics of the corona are determined by underlying magnetic fields, which also govern coronal heating and solar eruptive events. However, coronal magnetic field measurements remain an outstanding challenge. Coronal magnetic field models serve an important purpose in this context. Earlier work has demonstrated that the large-scale coronal structure is governed by surface flux evolution and memory buildup, which allows for its prediction on solar rotational timescales. Utilizing this idea and based upon a 51 day forward run of a predictive solar surface flux transport model and a potential field source surface model, we predict the coronal structure of the 2019 July 2 solar eclipse. We also forward model the polarization characteristics of the coronal emission. Our prediction of two large-scale streamer structures and their locations on the east and west limbs of the Sun match eclipse observations reasonably well. We demonstrate that the Sun's polar fields strongly influence the modeled corona, concluding that accurate polar field observations are critical. This study is relevant for coronal magnetometry initiatives envisaged with the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter and upcoming space-based instruments such as Solar Orbiter, Solar Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope and the Variable Emission Line Coronagraph on board the Indian Space Research Organisation's Aditya-L1 space mission

Exploring the solar poles: the last great frontier of the sun

Observations of the Sun’s poles is fundamental to understanding and predicting the solar cycle, constraining polar kilo-Gauss flux patches and plasma jets and illuminating the origin of the fast solar wind. This white paper argues the case for novel out-of-ecliptic observations of the Sun’s polar region in conjunction with existing or future multi-vantage point heliospheric observatories

Polar flux imbalance at the sunspot cycle minimum governs hemispheric asymmetry in the following cycle

Aims. Hemispheric irregularities of solar magnetic activity is a well-observed phenomenon, the origin of which has been studied through numerical simulations and data analysis techniques. In this work we explore possible causes generating north-south asymmetry in the reversal timing and amplitude of the polar field during cycle minimum. Additionally, we investigate how hemispheric asymmetry is translated from cycle to cycle. Methods. We pursued a three-step approach. Firstly, we explored the asymmetry present in the observed polar flux and sunspot area by analysing observational data of the last 110 years. Secondly, we investigated the contribution from various factors involved in the Babcock–Leighton mechanism to the evolution and generation of polar flux by performing numerical simulations with a surface flux transport model and synthetic sunspot input profiles. Thirdly, translation of hemispheric asymmetry in the following cycle was estimated by assimilating simulation-generated surface magnetic field maps at cycle minimum in a dynamo simulation. Finally, we assessed our understanding of hemispheric asymmetry in the context of observations by performing additional observational data-driven simulations. Results. Analysis of observational data shows a profound connection between the hemispheric asymmetry in the polar flux at cycle minimum and the total hemispheric activity during the following cycle. We find that the randomness associated with the tilt angle of sunspots is the most crucial element among diverse components of the Babcock–Leighton mechanism in resulting hemispheric irregularities in the evolution of polar field. Our analyses with dynamo simulations indicate that an asymmetric poloidal field at the solar minimum can introduce significant north-south asymmetry in the amplitude and timing of peak activity during the following cycle. While observational data-driven simulations reproduce salient features of the observed asymmetry in the solar cycles during the last 100 years, we speculate that fluctuations in the mean-field α-effect and meridional circulation can have finite contributions in this regard

Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions

The Sun’s activity cycle impacts space-reliant technologies and the Earth’s climate, but predicting this is challenging. An ensemble forecast based on an innovative combination of two solar magnetic field evolution models indicates a weak, but not insignificant sunspot cycle 25 peaking in 2024

The Association of Filaments, Polarity Inversion Lines, and Coronal Hole Properties with the Sunspot Cycle: An Analysis of the McIntosh Database

Filaments and coronal holes, two principal features observed in the solar corona are sources of space weather variations. Filament formation is closely associated with polarity inversion lines (PIL) on the solar photosphere which separate positive and negative polarities of the surface magnetic field. The origin of coronal holes is governed by large-scale unipolar magnetic patches on the photosphere from where open magnetic field lines extend to the heliosphere. We study properties of filaments, PILs and coronal holes in solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23 utilizing the McIntosh archive. We detect a prominent cyclic behavior of filament length, PIL length, and coronal hole area with significant correspondence with the solar magnetic cycle. The spatio-temporal evolution of the geometric centers of filaments shows a butterfly-like structure and distinguishable pole-ward migration of long filaments during cycle maxima. We identify this rush to the poles of filaments to be co-temporal with the initiation of polar field reversal as gleaned from Mount Wilson and Wilcox Solar Observatory polar field observations and quantitatively establish their temporal correspondence. We analyze the filament tilt angle distribution to constrain their possible origins. Majority of the filaments exhibit negative and positive tilt angles in the northern and the southern hemispheres, respectively -- strongly suggesting that their formation is governed by the overall large-scale magnetic field distribution on the solar photosphere and not by the small-scale intra-active region magnetic field configurations. We also investigate the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments, PILs, and coronal holes. We find that the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments and PILs are positively correlated -- whereas coronal hole asymmetry is uncorrelated -- with sunspot area asymmetry.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; 15 pages, 10 figure