Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Community perspective and healthcare assessment in malaria endemic states of India: a cross-sectional study protocol

Introduction India’s contribution to the malaria burden was highest in South-East Asia Region in 2021, accounting for 79% of the estimated malaria cases and 83% of malaria-related deaths. Intensified Malaria Control Programme supported by Global Funds to Fight against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has deployed crucial interventions to reduce the overall burden of malaria in India. Evaluation of utilisation of malaria elimination interventions by the community and assessment of the healthcare system is underway in eleven high malaria endemic states in India. Health system preparedness for malaria elimination, logistics, and supply chain management of diagnostic kits and anti-malarial drugs in addition to the knowledge, attitude and practice of the healthcare workers is also being assessed.Methods and analysis The study is being undertaken in 11 malaria endemic states with a variable annual parasite incidence of malaria. In total, 47 districts (administrative unit of malaria control operations) covering 37 976 households are to be interviewed and assessed. We present here the protocol following which the study is being undertaken at the behest and approval of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in India.Ethics and dissemination No patients were involved in the study. Study findings will be shared with Institutional ethics board of National Institute for Malaria Research New Delhi (NIMR) in a timely, comprehensive, accurate, unbiased, unambiguous and transparent manner and to the National Vector-borne Disease (Malaria) Control Programme officers and the Community public who participated. Important findings will be communicated through community outreach meetings which are existing in the Health system. Results will be informed to study participants via local fieldwork supervised by District Malaria Officers. Also findings will be published in reputed journals based on Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) publication policy.The ICMR-NIMR ethics committee approved the study via letter No. NIMR/ECM/2023/Feb/14 dated 24 April 2023 for version 5. All standard ethical practices will be followed

In the Shadows of the Himalayan Mountains : Persistent Gender and Social Exclusion in Development

Climate change in combination with socioeconomic processes and opportunities have an especially severe impact on people living in remote mountain areas of the Hindu Kush Himalaya. What is less well known is how changes in climate will affect in the quality of lives, livelihoods, and resources of diverse groups of people of the region. The chapter argues that it is not only important but also necessary to link climate science and climate interventions with relevant contextual experiences of the different groups of people due their differential experiences and vulnerabilities. The chapter provides illustrative cases studies to demonstrate the differential experiences and vulnerabilities of women and men as a result of the dynamics of gender relations in the context of climate change