Sequence-based <it>in silico</it> analysis of well studied Hepatitis C Virus epitopes and their variants in other genotypes (particularly genotype 5a) against South African human leukocyte antigen backgrounds

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Host genetics influence the outcome of HCV disease. HCV is also highly mutable and escapes host immunity. HCV genotypes are geographically distributed and HCV subtypes have been shown to have distinct repertoires of HLA-restricted viral epitopes which explains the lack of cross protection across genotypes observed in some studies. Despite this, immune databases and putative epitope vaccines concentrate almost exclusively on HCV genotype 1 class I-epitopes restricted by the HLA-A*02 allele. While both genotype and allele predominate in developed countries, we hypothesise that HCV variation and population genetics will affect the efficacy of proposed epitope vaccines in South Africa. This <it>in silico</it> study investigates HCV viral variability within well-studied epitopes identified in genotype 1 and uses algorithms to predict the immunogenicity of their variants from other less studied genotypes and thus rate the most promising vaccine candidates for the South African population. Six class I- and seven class II- restricted epitope sequences within the core, NS3, NS4B and NS5B regions were compared across the six HCV genotypes using local genotype 5a sequence data together with global data. Common HLA alleles in the South African population are A30:01, A02:01, B58:02, B07:02; DRB1*13:01 and DRB1*03:01. Epitope binding to 13 class I- and 8 class –II alleles were described using web-based prediction servers, Immune Epitope Database, (IEDB) and Propred. Online population coverage tools were used to assess vaccine efficacy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Despite the homogeneity of genotype 1 and genotype 5 over the epitopes, there was limited promiscuity to local HLA-alleles.Host differences will make a putative vaccine less effective in South Africa. Of the 6 well-characterized class I- epitopes, only 2 class I- epitopes were promiscuous and 3 of the 7 class-II epitopes were better conserved and promiscuous. By fine tuning the putative vaccine using an optimal cocktail of genotype 1 and 5a epitopes and local HLA data, the coverage was raised from 65.85% to 91.87% in South African Blacks.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While i<it>n vivo</it> and <it>in vitro</it> studies are needed to confirm immunogenic epitopes, <it>in silico</it> HCV epitope vaccine design which takes into account HCV variation and host allele frequency will maximize population coverage in different ethnic groups.</p

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641000 (623000–765000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination