At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience

The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties.El principal objetivo de este artículo es explicar por qué las encuestas electorales cometen más errores en épocas de crisis económica, inestabilidad política y con partidos emergentes como Podemos y Ciudadanos. Para ello utilizamos una base de datos de 226 encuestas previas a las elecciones generales españolas de 2016. En este contexto, paradójicamente vemos como el instrumento que la sociedad utiliza para reducir su incertidumbre puede acabar aumentándola. Nuestros resultados muestran como el error de predicción de los nuevos partidos es significativamente mayor que los tradicionales e insensible a las soluciones clásicas para aumentar la precisión de las encuestas, como el tamaño de la muestra, el método de muestreo, la experiencia del encuestador, o la proximidad de la cita electoral. Además, se observa que las empresas que desarrollan las encuestas realizan de forma sistemática predicciones muy próximas a las que han realizado las encuestas recientes de sus competidores. Finalmente, el sesgo editorial parece ser una variable relevante, especialmente en lo relativo a las predicciones de los partidos tradicionale

Global changes in total and wind electricity (1990–2014)

Wind energy is one of the renewable energies which have less adverse environmental impact and is becoming economically affordable long before several other renewable energies. Over recent years, substantial additions have been noted in wind energy capacity, although many differences can be observed between countries. Using the latest available data, this paper provides a concise analysis of wind energy and electricity consumption trends for the period 1990–2014 in a dual perspective, by principal world regions and by per capita gross national income levels in 2014. Electricity consumption has been divided into three types of energy: non-renewable, renewable excluding wind and wind energy. Annual rates of change, energy intensity, energy in per capita terms and some ratios have been analyzed. Notable regional differences and trends are observed in the studied variables. The first 15 European Union countries, other developed countries (ODC) and East Asian (EAS) and South Asian countries (SAS) are the regions which currently have the highest wind capacity.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2014 – 56399-

Analyzing the effects of Energy Action Plans on electricity consumption in Covenant of Mayors signatory municipalities in Andalusia

Permitted deposit due to Funding Body, Institutional and Governmental policy or mandate, may be required to comply with embargo periods of 12 months to 48 monthsThe Covenant of Mayors (CM) is an initiative by which towns, cities and regions voluntarily commit to reduce their CO2 emissions beyond the European Union climate targets, through policies promoting energy saving and renewable energy. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether joining the CM is reducing municipalities’ electricity consumption and therefore their emissions. This analysis is made for municipalities in Andalusia, the region of Spain with more signatories. For this purpose, the evolution of total, household and public administration electricity consumption from 2001 to 2012 is analyzed by using panel data econometric techniques. Obtained results show that the CM is having a positive effect on the electricity consumption reductions, since the municipalities have greater rates of reduction of electricity consumption after signing the CM. Therefore, it may be considered that it may be appropriate to promote policies that incentivize the municipalities to join the CM and to develop their action plans, as this can reduce their electrical consumption.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad ECO2014-56399-

Ejemplo de la utilidad de Internet para la enseñanza especializada universitaria

Se analizan en este artículo distintas posibilidades de la red Internet para completar la formación de los estudiantes universitarios en nuestros centros. En concreto se muestran una serie de informaciones relativas a la Administración de Sistemas Informáticos que habrían sido imposible recoger de otro modo, ante la escasez de bibliografía sobre el tema. Si a esto añadimos que dicha información afecta a la seguridad de los sistemas informáticos, que es justo la tarea prioritaria de los diplomados en este módulo, se comprende la importancia transcendental de la incorporación de estas nueva tecnología de comunicación a nuestra formación.This item analyses the different ways in which the Internet network can be used to complete the education of University students at our centres. It specifically divulges information related to Computer Systems Management that would not have been possible to collect through any other means due to the lack of bibliography concerning this issue. If we also add that this information affects computer system security which is exactly the main task of the graduate students included in this module , one understands the transcendental importance of incorporating this new media technology to our training

Global changes in residential energy consumption

The residential energy sector is crucial to achieving CO2 emission reductions as it has an important energy-saving potential, and its environmental controls are difficult to displace to other countries. Using the latest available data, this short paper provides a concise analysis of residential energy consumption trends for the period 1993–2013 in a double perspective, by main world regions and by per capita gross national income levels in 2013. Residential energy has been divided into three types: non-renewable, direct renewable and indirect renewable. Annual rates of change, energy intensity, energy in per capita terms and some ratios have been analyzed. Notable regional differences and trends were observed in the studied variables. Therefore, different energy policies are recommended for the regions. Eastern and Southern Asian countries, the EU15 and other developed countries, are the regions which should make the greatest effort to reduce residential energy consumption. The promotion of direct and indirect renewable energies is recommended.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2014 – 56399-RFundación Roger Torné, Universidad de Sevilla, Cátedra de Economía de la Energía y del Medio Ambiente 1394/010

Relationships between Tourism and Hospitality Sector Electricity Consumption in Spanish Provinces (1999–2013)

The EU is committed to a 40% reduction in their domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. In order to reach this ambitious target, new measures affecting all economic sectors would be needed. This paper focuses on the tourism sector. Using econometric panel data techniques, the relationships between tourist overnight stays and the hospitality sector electricity consumption is studied for the Spanish provinces during the period 1999–2013. With this aim, an Energy-Tourism Kuznets Curve hypothesis is tested. The results show that the Energy-Tourism Kuznets Curve hypothesis is not supported. An increasing positive relationship between the hospitality sector electricity consumption and overnight stays is observed. Results also show that the hospitality sector electricity consumption elasticity values, with respect to tourist overnight stays, differ among the provinces, the values being within a range of 0.1–0.5 during the period. The highest values are observed for the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Gerona, Tarragona and Malaga. Energy efficiency measures, the adoption of renewable energy systems and the development of energy management capabilities are recommended.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2014 – 56399-

Tourism and temperature effects on the electricity consumption of the hospitality sector

Proyecto RTI2018-096725-B-100 financiado por FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Ministerio de Universidades .The EU has recently presented a strategic long-term vision for a climate-neutral economy by 2050, considering that climate change is a serious concern for Europeans. A great socio-economic transformation is necessary, affecting all economic sectors. On the one hand, the EU considers that is necessary to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, on the other hand, sectors need to adapt to a warming climate. Focusing on the tourism sector, and using panel data referring to 12 Spanish Mediterranean provinces and the 1999-2014 time period, this study tests the tourist stays and temperature effects on the hospitality sector electricity consumption, by estimating extended Energy Environmental Kuznets curves (E-EKC) for the sector. The results show that the E-EKC hypothesis is not supported. Instead, electricity consumption progressively increases as tourism grows. In addition, the results indicate that temperature variables have notable influence over the electricity use, with a positive influence of global warming on electricity consumption. Finally, results also show positive relationships between overnight stays in hotels with higher star ratings and electricity use, while no significant price effects are observed. Electricity saving measures and renewable electricity generation promotion are recommended, especially in the highest energy consuming establishments.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Ministerio de Universidades RTI2018-096725-B-100

Evaluation of Teaching the IS-LM Model through a Simulation Program

The IS-ML model is a basic tool used in the teaching of short-term macroeconomics. Teaching is essentially done through the use of graphs. However, the way these graphs are traditionally taught does not allow the learner to easily visualise changes in the curvers. The IS-LM simulation program overcomes difficulties encountered in understanding the curves used in the model beacuse, through it the students can visualise the changes in these curves when the model's parameter values are modified. The IS-LM simulation program is presented and the effectiveness of this application to a group of macroeconomics students at the University of Seville during the 2009/10 academic year is evaluated. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of all students' scores and some complementary statistical test were applied, distinguishing between students who used the simulator and those who did not. The average score obtained by the former in a model comprehension test was significantly higher than than of the latte

Advance of the design of a computer program for Macroeconomic´s Equilibria teaching

Los modelos macroeconómicos de equilibrio general son una herramienta básica para comprender el funcionamiento de la economía, como se relacionan las principales variables macroeconómicas y el efecto final de las políticas económicas. La enseñanza de estos modelos se realiza fundamentalmente mediante un sistema de ecuaciones matemáticas y en el uso de gráficos concatenados que representan los diversos mercados que intervienen en la economía. Sin embargo, el modo en que estos gráficos son tradicionalmente enseñados no permite al alumno comprender fácilmente el modo en que éstos se relacionan y ver los cambios que se producen en las curvas. El programa de simulación “Equilibrios Macroeconómicos” permite superar estas dificultades ya que los alumnos pueden visualizar fácilmente los cambios en las curvas cuando los parámetros del modelo varían. Ello permite asociar los cambios de dichos valores, a los efectos económicos derivados de los mismos y comprender los efectos finales de las políticas económicas.General equilibrium macroeconomic models are a basic tool for understanding the functioning of the economy, how the main macroeconomic variables are related to and the final effect of economic policies. Teaching of these models is essentially done through a system of mathematical equations and through the use of concatenated graphs which represent the markets involved in the economy. However, the way these graphs are traditionally taught does not allow the learner to easily understand how they are related and visualise changes in the curves. The simulation program "macroeconomic equilibrium" overcomes these difficulties because, through it, the students can easily visualise the changes in these curves when the model’s parameter values are modified. This allows to associate changes in these values with the economic effects and so to understand the final effects of economic policies