Reforming Capital Requirements in Emerging Countries: Calibrating Basel II using Historical Argentine Credit Bureau Data and CreditRisk+

Emerging economies are likely to be more volatile and asset risk more correlated than in industrialized countries. In this paper we discuss how credit scoring techniques and modern credit risk portfolio models can be used to measure credit risk and check Basel II calibration for such an environment. After reviewing the development of credit risk portfolio models, to explain our choice in using CreditRisk+, we discuss the definition and estimation methodology for a set of essential parameter inputs, which in turn depend on the data available - in this case from the Argentine public credit bureau. We then simulate, bank by bank, the introduction of Basel II's foundation IRB approach using the same data for Argentina and compare the results. We analyze how the IRB approach might be recalibrated and finally discuss a set of other issues regarding IRB implementation in an emerging economy.

Sustainable Development Indicator Frameworks and Initiatives

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Production Economics,

Technology and the (Re)Construction of Law

Innovative advancements in technology and artificial intelligence have created a unique opportunity to re-envision both legal education and the practice of law. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the technological disruption of both legal education and practice, as remote work, “Zoom” client meetings, virtual teaching, and online dispute resolution have become increasingly normalized. This essay explores how technological innovations in the coronavirus era are facilitating radical changes to our traditional adversarial system, the practice of law, and the very meaning of “legal knowledge.” It concludes with suggestions on how to reform legal education to better prepare our students for the emerging techno-legal landscape

Pandemic Surveillance Discrimination

The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the abiding tension between surveillance and privacy. Public health epidemiology has long utilized a variety of surveillance methods—such as contact tracing, quarantines, and mandatory reporting laws—to control the spread of disease during past epidemics and pandemics. Officials have typically justified the resulting intrusions on privacy as necessary for the greater public good by helping to stave off larger health crisis. The nature and scope of public health surveillance in the battle against COVID-19, however, has significantly changed with the advent of new technologies. Digital surveillance tools, often embedded in wearable technology, have greatly increased the ability of governments and private corporations to monitor large sections of society while collecting massive amounts of personally identifiable data from millions of persons around the world—often with little to no regulatory oversight (or legal limits) on how that information may be later used. Surveillance responses to public health crises have also historically, disproportionately, targeted racialized communities, leading to a normalization of both racial discrimination and inequality. The world certainly must use all means to end the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We also need to be careful, however, to not undermine individual privacy rights or engage in racialized responses to the current crisis. This Essay examines the discord between public health surveillance and privacy rights and argues that the bio-surveillance technologies being used to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic—such as contact tracing apps, GPS ankle monitors and other wearables, the collection of cell phone location data, genomic testing, and targeted quarantines—can potentially exacerbate discrimination against racial minorities and immigrants. The Essay concludes with legal and policy solutions on how to utilize public health surveillance tools to prevent the spread of COVID-19 while guarding against privacy violations and racial bias

Steroid induced osteonecrosis: An analysis of steroid dosing risk.

Osteonecrosis is a serious condition involving bone destruction that frequently requires surgical treatment to rebuild the joint. While there is an abundance of literature documenting corticosteroid related osteonecrosis, there is no consensus as to the relative risk of osteonecrosis after administration of steroids via parenteral, oral, topical, inhaled and other routes. This risk is an important prognostic indicator because identification and conservative intervention can potentially reduce morbidity associated with aggressive surgical treatment of osteonecrosis. This paper provides insight into establishing guidelines related to the risk of developing osteonecrosis as a result of corticosteroid use. Case studies, retrospective studies and prospective studies in humans on different corticosteroids and varied dosages were assessed. Most cases of osteonecrosis are secondary to systemically administered corticosteroids and/or high dose daily therapy, particularly in patients with underlying comorbidities including connective tissue diseases, hyperlipidemia, or previous trauma. Previous case reports of osteonecrosis related to inhaled or topical use of steroids are complicated by the fact that in the great majority of cases, the patients are also treated with systemic steroids prior to the development of osteonecrosis. Based on the literature, a set of recommendations regarding the risk of osteonecrosis in patients on steroids was formulated

Reforming capital requirements in emerging countries

This paper then attempts to show how a PCR, in this case from Argentina, can help to set capital and provisioning rules. In order to so this, we employ an econometric credit scoring model on the PCR data - an ordered probit - and we use a recently developed "off the shelf" credit risk portfolio model - CreditRisk+. Section 2 provides a review of the development in credit risk measurement, with emerging countries in mind, to motivate this modeling choice. We then provide a description of the Argentine PCR (section 3) and discuss some of the issues in applying CreditRisk+ to Argentine data (section 4). We then turn our attention to Basel II and show how the PCR and the credit-scoring model can be used to simulate the effect of the Basel II IRB approach as currently proposed. We compare our IRB simulation with our CreditRisk+ estimates of provisioning and capital requirements (section 5). We discuss how the IRB approach might be recalibrated to "fit" the local data (section 6). In section 7 we then discuss the regulatory choices faced by an emerging country regulator given the Basel II proposals and section 8 concludes.Para cualquier uso del contenido del presente documento debe ponerse en contacto con el autor