Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

International audienceWe compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere

Response of an ocean-atmosphere climate model to Milankovic forcing

International audienceThere is considerable evidence in support of Milankovic's theory that variations in high-latitude summer insolation caused by Earth orbital variations are the cause of the Pleistocene ice cycles. The enigmatic discrepancy between the spectra of Milankovic forcing and of Pleistocene climate variations is believed to be resolved by the slow, nonlinear response of ice sheets to changes in solar seasonality. An experiment with a preliminary version of a 14-region atmosphere/snow/upper ocean climate model demonstrates that the response of the ocean-atmosphere system alone to Milankovic forcing is capable of driving ice cycles with the observed spectrum. This occurs because of the highly nonlinear response of both the thermal seasons and the annual mean temperature to solar seasons, which is caused in turn by the highly nonlinear feedback between temperature and snow and sea ice

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder

Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions

Annual variation in event-scale precipitation <i>δ</i>²H at Barrow, AK, reflects vapor source region

In this study, precipitation isotopic variations at Barrow, AK, USA, are linked to conditions at the moisture source region, along the transport path, and at the precipitation site. Seventy precipitation events between January 2009 and March 2013 were analyzed for δ2H and deuterium excess. For each precipitation event, vapor source regions were identified with the hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) air parcel tracking program in back-cast mode. The results show that the vapor source region migrated annually, with the most distal (proximal) and southerly (northerly) vapor source regions occurring during the winter (summer). This may be related to equatorial expansion and poleward contraction of the polar circulation cell and the extent of Arctic sea ice cover. Annual cycles of vapor source region latitude and δ2H in precipitation were in phase; depleted (enriched) δ2H values were associated with winter (summer) and distal (proximal) vapor source regions. Precipitation δ2H responded to variation in vapor source region as reflected by significant correlations between δ2H with the following three parameters: (1) total cooling between lifted condensation level (LCL) and precipitating cloud at Barrow, ΔTcool, (2) meteorological conditions at the evaporation site quantified by 2 m dew point, Td, and (3) whether the vapor transport path crossed the Brooks and/or Alaskan ranges, expressed as a Boolean variable, mtn. These three variables explained 54 % of the variance (p&lt;0. 001) in precipitation δ2H with a sensitivity of −3.51 ± 0.55 ‰ °C−1 (p&lt;0. 001) to ΔTcool, 3.23 ± 0.83 ‰ °C−1 (p&lt;0. 001) to Td, and −32.11 ± 11.04 ‰ (p = 0. 0049) depletion when mtn is true. The magnitude of each effect on isotopic composition also varied with vapor source region proximity. For storms with proximal vapor source regions (where ΔTcool &lt;7 °C), ΔTcool explained 3 % of the variance in δ2H, Td alone accounted for 43 %, while mtn explained 2 %. For storms with distal vapor sources (ΔTcool &gt; 7°C), ΔTcool explained 22 %, Td explained only 1 %, and mtn explained 18 %. The deuterium excess annual cycle lagged by 2–3 months during the δ2H cycle, so the direct correlation between the two variables is weak. Vapor source region relative humidity with respect to the sea surface temperature, hss, explained 34 % of variance in deuterium excess, (−0.395 ± 0.067 ‰ %−1, p&lt;0. 001). The patterns in our data suggest that on an annual scale, isotopic ratios of precipitation at Barrow may respond to changes in the southerly extent of the polar circulation cell, a relationship that may be applicable to interpretation of long-term climate change records like ice cores