20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years

The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment

Polychemotherapy for early breast cancer: an overview of the randomised trials

Background There have been many randomised trials of adjuvant prolonged polychemotherapy among women with early breast cancer, and an updated overview of their results is presented. Methods In 1995, information was sought on each woman in any randomised trial that began before 1990 and involved treatment groups that differed only with respect to the chemotherapy regimens that were being compared. Analyses involved about 18 000 women in 47 trials of prolonged polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy, about 6000 in 11 trials of longer versus shorter polychemotherapy, and about 6000 in 11 trials of anthracycline-containing regimens versus CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil). Findings For recurrence, polychemotherapy produced substantial and highly significant proportional reductions both among women aged under 50 at randomisation (35% [SD 4] reduction; 2p<0·00001) and among those aged 50–69 (20% [SD 3] reduction; 2p<0·00001); few women aged 70 or over had been studied. For mortality, the reductions were also significant both among women aged under 50 (27% [SD 5] reduction; 2p<0·00001) and among those aged 50–69 (11% [SD 3] reduction; 2p=0·0001). The recurrence reductions emerged chiefly during the first 5 years of follow-up, whereas the difference in survival grew throughout the first 10 years. After standardisation for age and time since randomisation, the proportional reductions in risk were similar for women with node-negative and node-positive disease. Applying the proportional mortality reduction observed in all women aged under 50 at randomisation would typically change a 10-year survival of 71% for those with node-negative disease to 78% (an absolute benefit of 7%), and of 42% for those with node-positive disease to 53% (an absolute benefit of 11%). The smaller proportional mortality reduction observed in all women aged 50–69 at randomisation would translate into smaller absolute benefits, changing a 10-year survival of 67% for those with node-negative disease to 69% (an absolute gain of 2%) and of 46% for those with node-positive disease to 49% (an absolute gain of 3%). The age-specific benefits of polychemotherapy appeared to be largely irrespective of menopausal status at presentation, oestrogen receptor status of the primary tumour, and of whether adjuvant tamoxifen had been given. In terms of other outcomes, there was a reduction of about one-fifth (2p=0·05) in contralateral breast cancer, which has already been included in the analyses of recurrence, and no apparent adverse effect on deaths from causes other than breast cancer (death rate ratio 0·89 [SD 0·09]). The directly randomised comparisons of longer versus shorter durations of polychemotherapy did not indicate any survival advantage with the use of more than about 3–6 months of polychemotherapy. By contrast, directly randomised comparisons did suggest that, compared with CMF alone, the anthracycline-containing regimens studied produced somewhat greater effects on recurrence (2p=0·006) and mortality (69% vs 72% 5-year survival; log-rank 2p=0·02). But this comparison is one of many that could have been selected for emphasis, the 99% CI reaches zero, and the results of several of the relevant trials are not yet available. Interpretation Some months of adjuvant polychemotherapy (eg, with CMF or an anthracycline-containing regimen) typically produces an absolute improvement of about 7–11% in 10-year survival for women aged under 50 at presentation with early breast cancer, and of about 2–3% for those aged 50–69 (unless their prognosis is likely to be extremely good even without such treatment). Treatment decisions involve consideration not only of improvements in cancer recurrence and survival but also of adverse side-effects of treatment, and this report makes no recommendations as to who should or should not be treated

Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials

Background Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5-year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects. Methods Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxombicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modem aromatase inhibitors. Findings Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0 . 0001 for recurrence, 2p<0 . 00001 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than CMF chemotherapy. Few women of age 70 years or older entered these chemotherapy trials. For ER-positive disease only, allocation to about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by 31% (SE 3), largely irrespective of the use of chemotherapy and of age (<50, 50-69, &GE; 70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0 . 00001 for recurrence, 2p=0 . 01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis. These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14 000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14 000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15 000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33 000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18 000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments. For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes. Interpretation Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs

Overview of the randomized trials of radiotherapy in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

Individual patient data were available for all four of the randomized trials that began before 1995, and that compared adjuvant radiotherapy vs no radiotherapy following breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). A total of 3729 women were eligible for analysis. Radiotherapy reduced the absolute 10-year risk of any ipsilateral breast event (ie, either recurrent DCIS or invasive cancer) by 15.2% (SE 1.6%, 12.9% vs 28.1% 2 P <.00001), and it was effective regardless of the age at diagnosis, extent of breast-conserving surgery, use of tamoxifen, method of DCIS detection, margin status, focality, grade, comedonecrosis, architecture, or tumor size. The proportional reduction in ipsilateral breast events was greater in older than in younger women (2P < .0004 for difference between proportional reductions; 10-year absolute risks: 18.5% vs 29.1% at ages <50 years, 10.8% vs 27.8% at ages ≥ 50 years) but did not differ significantly according to any other available factor. Even for women with negative margins and small low-grade tumors, the absolute reduction in the 10-year risk of ipsilateral breast events was 18.0% (SE 5.5, 12.1% vs 30.1%, 2P = .002). After 10 years of follow-up, there was, however, no significant effect on breast cancer mortality, mortality from causes other than breast cancer, or all-cause mortality