Food Loss and Waste Definitions and Measurement Issues: The Case of the Maize Sector in Mozambique

Current estimates point to food loss and waste as costing around $US 900 billion dollars a year. That is equivalentto around one-third of global food production. The magnitude of this valuation, however, is reliant on the effectivemeasurement of the actual amount of food loss and waste. There are various definitions of this problem, whichdiffer in their scope. FAO, FUSION and WRI are the most prominent institutions that have proposed differentdefinitions of food loss and waste. All of these definitions have been at least partially criticized. Nonetheless, FAO’sdefinition and methodology have been the basis for many studies attempting to quantify food loss and waste. FAO’smethodology is based more on estimation rather than direct measurements. Taking the example of maize inMozambique, using FAO’s methodology to measure food loss and waste at the farm level seems to provideestimates comparable to the available statistics from the national agricultural surveys. Di rect measurements on theother hand, apart from being costly, seem to suffer from representativeness problems as highlighted by someauthors. Also, some of the direct measurement methods proposed by some authors seem to look at food loss andwaste as a static problem, rather than a dynamic problem that evolves over time. Regardless of the level where theproblem of food loss and waste occurs (upper or lower end of supply chains), it results in a deadweight loss forsociety. That is demonstrated by a Marshallian supply and demand diagram

The Economic Impact of Imports on the Australian Pig Industry: Is it Time for the WTO’s Safeguard Measures? 1. Replicating and Updating the 2008 Productivity Commission Analyses

It is now 25 years since pig meat imports were first allowed into Australia. Pig producers have argued that import liberalization has caused the decline in the domestic production of pig meat and in the profitability of pig production. In its most recent Inquiry report in 2008, the Productivity Commission (PC) concluded that the main reason for the declining profitability of pig farmers in Australia was the higher costs of feed in the domestic market. Movements of the Australian dollar were also found to favour increased imports of pig meat. Based on analyses conducted with data up to 2007, the PC was unable to justify the need for Australia to activate the safeguard measures prescribed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules in order to temporarily protect the local pig industry. Since then the volume of pig meat imports into Australia has continued to rise so that by 2014 imported pig meat made up nearly 70 per cent of the total pig meat processed domestically and half of total consumption. The question addressed in this analysis is whether the current market scenario of substantial and continuing increases in pig meat imports in Australia could now justify the need for the WTO’s safeguard measures. The specific objective is to assess whether the PC’s earlier results still hold using exactly the same methods but with an updated dataset. Application of the first of the estimation techniques used by the PC suggests that domestic production has been affecting the saleyard price rather than import volumes or prices, while the second technique used by the PC and its respective post-estimation tests did not suggest a strong causal effect between import volume or unit values and domestic production or saleyard price. Thus, based on the PC’s models, it is unlikely that a new case could be made for the application of the WTO safeguard measures to the Australian pig meat industry. However, there are a number of statistical problems with the PC models that were simply updated for the current analysis. In a companion paper, the PC models are re-specified and re-estimated to overcome these statistical problems

The Economic Impact of Imports on the Australian Pig Industry: Is it Time for the WTO’s Safeguard Measures? 2. Re-estimating the Productivity Commission’s Vector Autoregression and Inverse Demand Models

In its 2008 Inquiry report into the impact of imports on the Australian pig meat industry, the Productivity Commission (PC) concluded that the main reason for the declining profitability of pig farmers in Australia was the higher costs of feed in the domestic market. Movements of the Australian dollar were also found to favour increased imports of pig meat. Based on analyses conducted with data up to 2007, the PC was unable to justify the need for Australia to activate the safeguard measures prescribed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules in order to temporarily protect the local pig industry. In a preceding paper, using exactly the same methods but with a dataset updated to 2013, the authors found that domestic production, rather than import volumes or prices, has been affecting the saleyard price and that there was not a strong causal effect between import volume or unit values and domestic production or saleyard price. Thus, based on a straightforward updating of the PC’s models, the PC conclusions were confirmed: it is unlikely that a new case could be made for the application of the WTO safeguard measures to the Australian pig meat industry. However, there were a number of statistical problems with the PC models that were simply updated for the previous analysis. In this paper, the PC models are re-specified and re-estimated to overcome these statistical problems. However, the misspecifications do not lead to any different implications of the results

Postharvest losses at the farm level and its economy-wide costs: the case of the maize sector in Mozambique

With increasing population and demand for food, reducing food loss and waste is one of the greatest challenges worldwide. Current estimates point to over 1 billion tons of food lost and wasted worldwide, though nearly 10 percent of the global population is suffering from undernourishment and food insecurity. In Mozambique, about one-quarter of the population suffers from undernourishment and food insecurity. Estimates from FAO point to postharvest losses of maize in Mozambique at about 3.69 to 7.92 percent; this is less than one-fifth of the on-farm losses reported by other authors. In this study, an Equilibrium Displacement model is used to assess the economy-wide impact of postharvest losses of maize at the farm level. The impact of a 3 percent postharvest loss is tested. Results suggest that even this very conservative percentage of postharvest losses has a direct annual net cost of around $USD 28 million for both farmers and consumers domestically. This is equivalent to over 1 percent of the national budget. It is also higher than the average cost of food aid programs received over the last three years. Therefore, reducing postharvest losses of maize along with other interventions is crucial to achieve sustainable development and economic growth

Quantifying the costs and benefits of forest conversion through slash-and-burn cultivation and conventional logging

Food insecurity, deforestation, and forest degradation are significant challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in sub-Saharan Africa. Slash-and-burn cultivation and conventional logging (timber and charcoal production) are two interrelated activities that lead to forest loss and undermine food security. However, the environmental and economic incentives to clear or conserve the forest have yet to be discovered. To address this gap, our study collected costs and benefits data to assess financial profitability and viability related to forest conversion to slash-and-burn cultivation options (e.g., mono-cropping of maize and intercropping between maize, cassava and pigeon peas) and forestry exploitation (logging and charcoal production) practices in smallholders in Zambézia province, central Mozambique. Conventional logging was the highest cost activity (1662 US$ha−1) compared to charcoal production (278 US$ ha−1) and cropping systems. Estimated total costs for cropping ranged from 302 US$ha−1 to 508 US$ ha−1. Cropping systems appear more profitable in the first year of investment (30 to 1495 US$ha−1) than forestry activities. On the other hand, the estimated profits for logging and charcoal production are negative at 15 US$ ha−1 and 782 US$ ha−1, respectively. Regarding viability, cropping systems showed the highest indicators compared to forestry activities. Based on the financial assessment, cropping systems seem attractive land use options with the fastest and highest financial returns and the lowest production costs. As such, it is not easy to prevent them. The long-term implications of increasing deforestation to the detriment of the cropping system can translate into rapid ecosystem degradation that can worsen livelihoods

Applying System Dynamics to the Food Loss and Waste Problem: a Literature Review

Although it has been around for over 50 years, system dynamics can still be considered as an emerging methodology to analyse food value chain problems. From over 400 peer-reviewed articles identified as potentially applying system dynamics models to agricultural systems, less than 40 focus specifically on food value chains. None of these articles applied a systems dynamics model to empirically analyse the impact of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on food loss and waste. In this paper, the aim is to provide a synthesis of the usefulness of system dynamics to agricultural systems issues, focusing particularly on the problem of food loss and waste. Key principles and concepts of system dynamics modelling are reviewed, some validity tests for the system dynamics model are highlighted, system dynamics is compared with other modelling approaches and the advantages of using this type of model are emphasised. Then, some examples of its applications to food value chains problems are reviewed, including a focus on policy issues, and a proposed empirical system dynamics model for analysing the problem of food loss and waste in a developing country context is illustrated

The impact of the 2015/16 drought on staple maize markets in Southern and Eastern Africa

The Southern African region experienced the worst drought in more than a century in the 2015/16 production season, which had a severe impact on staple maize markets. Public and private sector response varied across the region and the level of accuracy on information with respect to crop estimates and the anticipated impact on stock levels, trade flow and prices became critical. To this end, the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI) has in recent years developed a multi-faceted approach to policy research that includes farm-level, sector-level and value chain analysis within a Strategic Foresighting frame-work. This initiative is supported by the capacity building and training in partial equilibrium modelling under the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP)